Sunday, March 16, 2014

Central Oregon jobs picture: positive but still digging out of recession



            First the good news: Central Oregon is out front among Oregon regions in job growth.
            Now the not so good: It could take another eight years, until 2022, for the region to exceed the total jobs in the region in pre-recession 2007.
            This scenario of where the region has been, is now and might be heading is contained in the Oregon Employment Department report  from regional economist  Damon Runberg.
            The report says regional employment--including Deschutes, Jefferson and Crook counties--should grow by 16% from a base year of 2012 in the decade to  2022.  State growth is projected to be 15%/
            Altogether the region should add more than 12,000 jobs by 2022, the highest number nearly 2,500 in healthcare and related fields, followed by tourism oriented employment with more than 2,100.
Improvement in the local housing market with new construction jobs and growth in retail and hospitality employment from tourism should also continue to boost the regional jobs picture, the report concludes.
            However, by 2022 the region will likely have created only 1% more jobs (940) more than it had in 2007.
            “Even with strong employment gains in 2013 the region’s employment levels remain far below their peal levels before the recession. Deschutes County lost more than 11,000 jobs during the recession,” the report says. “By the end of 2013 only 4,900 of those jobs were recovered.”

Thursday, March 6, 2014

City of Bend could take big loss in boom years investment



            There is no shortage of Bend area real estate horror stories with the opening chapters often set in the 2005-2008 boom period.
            With a recently announced sale it’s apparent that the City of Bend is among those faced with the reality of what happens when a bubble bursts.
            Consider the case of a leading homebuilder’s purchase of 17 acres in Sisters for $5.6 million, then completely finishing the lots for an 85 unit subdivision before having to give it back to the bank after building only four homes.
            In stepped a patient investor who purchased the unbuilt lots for $2.4 million, leaving the bank with a major writeoff.
            In a premium gated community north of Bend a California buyer paid more than $1.1 million for a single home site. In 2012 a national bank agreed to a short sale at $215,000. The original loan was more than $700,000.
            Entire subdivisions in east Bend were left to sprout invasive weeds, which on the positive side may have slightly reduced the volume of blowing dust. But now with the market gaining momentum many of these are neighborhoods of new homes that sell before completion. 
            As for the City of Bend, its 2005 purchase of the 3.1 acre former Bend Bulletin newspaper site, at the northeast corner of Wall Street and Revere Avenue, for $4.8 million appears headed to a 60% loss, according to a report in The Bulletin.
            The city had acquired the site from Taylor Brothers LLC in 2005, which had purchased it in 2002  from Brooks Resources. Western Communications, parent of The Bulletin, had traded the property to Brooks in 2002 after the newspaper's operations were relocated.
            In a decision Wednesday evening, the Bend City Council accepted an offer by Getz Properties LLC--developer of the east side Forum Center with Costco, Barnes & Noble, Safeway and Whole Foods-- to purchase the property for $1.9 million. 
            The Bulletin also reported that the city still owes $2.1 million on the property with a $700,000 principal payment and $75,000 interest due in June.
            The terms give the city $50,000 in nonrefundable earnest money but allow Getz several months of due diligence. The site is zoned to allow 55-foot tall buildings and mixed use that could include retail, office and residential.
            At the time it was purchased the council had envisioned the site as having the potential to extend the downtown core. Only one member of that council is still on the current one, and a new member was quoted as saying the city “...paid way too much money for it, for a purpose it turned out was not feasible for that site.”
            The city has also had a rough time with its 1,500 acre Juniper Ridge project, to which it had hoped to attract a university and research-oriented firms. Instead the planned OSU-Cascades 4-Year campus will be built on a 56 acre site on Bend's west side.(See posts below)
           

 The history of the city's attempt to sell the former Bulletin newspaper site


Date
Time
New Status
Old Status
New Price 
Old Price 
Selling Date 
DOM
Change Type

  03/06/14
11:59:59 pm
Expired
Active
2,278,406 
2,278,406 

1530
Status

  03/07/13
11:34:04 am
Active
Expired
2,278,406 
2,278,406 

1166
Status

  02/14/13
11:59:59 pm
Expired
Active
2,278,406 
2,278,406 

1166
Status

  10/01/12
10:58:25 am
Active
Expired
2,278,406 
2,278,406 

1030
Status

  08/14/12
11:59:59 pm
Expired
Active
2,278,406 
2,278,406 

1030
Status

  06/29/12
3:25:27 pm
Active
Active
2,278,406 
3,500,000 

984
Price

  09/09/11
3:31:37 pm
Active
Expired
3,500,000 
3,500,000 

690
Status

  08/14/11
11:59:59 pm
Expired
Active
3,500,000 
3,500,000 

690
Status

  08/27/10
5:58:07 pm
Active
Expired
3,500,000 
3,900,000 

338
Price/Status

  08/14/10
11:59:59 pm
Expired
Active
3,900,000 
3,900,000 

338
Status

  09/14/09
4:06:08 pm
Active

3,900,000 

0
New