Showing posts with label Land conservation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Land conservation. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 2, 2022

New density rules open divisions in single family neighborhoods

            UPDATE: As of February 18 Bend city planners say there is no longer an active application for development of the Compass Corner site. More details in the future.

          Proposed projects at different points on Bend’s Awbrey Butte are focusing a debate over affordable housing, the impacts of high density and multi-family units in traditional single family neighborhoods--and related new city development code provisions.
            Comments by residents regarding proposals by separate developers for the West View project on Glassow Drive on the west side of the butte and Compass Corner on the northeast side both emphasize that the scale and traffic impacts would be detrimental to existing neighborhoods.
            However, both proposed projects appear to fit an emerging city strategy to encourage more multi-family and higher density housing in neighborhoods otherwise zoned RS, for standard single family homes.
            Latest versions of the city code follow Oregon’s new statute, House Bill 2001, intended to force higher density in single family neighborhoods, with the objective of easing the crunch of escalating housing costs beyond affordability levels for many families.
            Among new code provisions is the potential to build up to a quadraplex on a lot of at least 4,000 square feet in a typical neighborhood of single family homes. The code would also downsize current requirements for off street parking.
            As the provisions take effect, homeowners in some neighborhoods have begun to review requirements in their covenants, conditions, and restrictions, or CCRs, that stipulate what type of housing can be built. In theory, CCRs restricting construction to only a single family home would supersede the city code, but legal action might be required to enforce the CCRs.
            One of the two Awbrey Butte projects gaining much attention is Compass Corner, proposed as a mixed use development for as many as 63 studio, 1 and 2 bedroom apartments, up to four floors including retail space. Parking would be above and below ground on the 1.02 acre site overlooking Mt. Washington Boulevard and bordered by Awbrey Road

Compass Corner concept plan

NW.
            County records show the site is owned by Hotel Management LLC, with a registered agent at the same address as that for owners of the recently opened My Space hotel off Bond Street above the Old Mill District. The registered agent is Sueng Lee, at the same address, while LLC members and addresses on the Oregon business registry include Michael Chun of Bend; Anthony Kim of Federal Way, WA; and Shilla Yi of Tacoma, WA.
             In a January online presentation, representatives of the development team fielded comments from area residents who complained the several story buildings were out of scale for the neighborhood, would create traffic hazards and result in parking spilling onto narrow streets.
            Some commented online that neighbors should hire an attorney to oppose the project, as was done by owners in the Rivers Edge community who appear to have prevented the golf course there from being developed for housing. (links to Rivers Edge

Homeowners play a good round at Rivers Edge course

Trading golf for homes: Rivers Edge proposal raises future housng issues

             The project vision appears to have expanded considerably since the city posted a “pre-application meeting summary” of the proposal in February of 2021. That document noted a project to include 35,000 square feet of apartments and 5,000 square feet commercial, up to four stories with surface parking.
            Now in the proposal under consideration by the city as of November 2021, Compass Corner would include 63 apartments in two buildings with up to 10,000 square feet of commercial space. The two buildings would total more than 57,000 square feet along with underground and surface parking. 
             A little over two miles on the other side of Awbrey Butte some neighbors are mobilizing with yard signs to oppose the 6.5 acre West Hill Development that would include 42 units of townhomes, duplexes, triplexes, and quadraplexes on 29 lots. It could also result in removal of more than 700 trees.

West Hill on Glassow overview


            In a guest column in the Bend Bulletin, one resident wrote that,” The objection is not over development per se...The concern is over the scale of the project and the lack of fit with the surrounding neighborhoods, physical environment and supporting infrastructure.”
            Taking a stance more favorable to the project, another writer responding in a column that,  “To complain about housing in your neighborhood (and mine) that does basically the same things that the building of your home did is peak entitlement. Being against the development because it doesn’t exactly mirror what is currently there, despite the law allowing such development, only compounds the cost of building and the shortage of housing.”
            Principals of the West View project are members of Oregon Builders Developers LLC Glenn Kotara and Mark Huffman, both who have Bend mailing addresses.
            By mid-January of 2021, neither Compass Corner nor West View had come before the city planning commission for review, which would be a step before going to the Bend city council.
            With Compass Corner a conditional use permit allowing an exception to maximum size on the site would be required. And it’s possible the issues swirling around both projects could result in both being considered by a hearing officer after public sessions.
            Although not yet in the development planning stage, another site in the same Awbrey Butte area of Compass Corner could also become part of the density discussion.
            At the northeast corner of NW Sonora and Awbrey Road are two lots, one of  0.20 acre and another of 0.14 acre which were listed in January, and became pending sales in 24 days,  as potential sites for duplexes on each property. The site is at the southern intersection of the neighborhood served by streets linking to Compass Corner and abuts an often busy roundabout at a sloped point on Awbrey Road.

Tuesday, March 9, 2021

Bend housing sticker shock: Manic level multiple offers for some homes

             A longtime friend from our river guide days in Jackson Hole recently wrote that his wife was ready to leave the far northern California town that has been their home for decades.
            Seeking a new location, she turned to cruising Zillow for listings in Bend and Central Oregon, trusting that a new home could be on the horizon.
            “She was aghast at the real estate prices,” the friend wrote. “She was fantasizing about a small amount of acreage within shouting distance of Bend...," he added
            “She asked me to ask you (to)... deliver the bad news and revel in the fact you were smart enough to find Bend before the world found Bend.”
            Unfortunately, I could only reply to the friends--she a professional social services director and he an attorney--that many of us who have been in Central Oregon for some time are also perplexed at the “sticker shock” facing potential newcomers.
            “Expatriate Californians, Portlanders and Seattleites are driving prices to new levels. Many are able to work remotely, or they are taking advantage of good stock portfolio performances to retire. Or a combination of both,” I offered.
|            The friends are only one snapshot of a growing album of Bend wannabes. They soon  realize that an outdoor-friendly lifestyle, generally temperate weather, and other attractions that are magnets for newcomers have a companion effect—a pricey real estate market. Some soon realize that yet another “last best place,” as various locations around the country have also been called, is more out of reach.
            A casual look at housing reports from other locations confirms the trend. Bozeman, Livingston and Whitefish in Montana, and Prescott, AZ; Sandpoint, ID; Walla Walla, WA; and Austin, TX are just a few places where “discovery” has long passed the cachet of finding a hidden gem.

A Significant Jump in Million Dollar Sales

            One measure of Bend housing cost escalation, albeit a narrow one, is the past three years of in-city sales that closed above $1 million. In 2018 there were 100 sales above $1 million and none above $1.8 million. The figures come from the Beacon Report of Beacon Appraisal Group, based on the Central Oregon MLS database.
            In 2020 the number had leapfrogged to 231, with 35 sales crossing the $1.8 million mark, as framed in Beacon’s graph of sales by segmented price ranges. And, already in 2021 there were 15 closing in January, double the six during the same month of 2020.
           
Another broader look at price ranges below the “million dollar club” also shows the upwardly migrating price points in Bend.
            In 2018 most single family homes in Bend sold in the range of $300,000 to $350,000, with the second highest category from  $350,000 to $400,000. In 2020 the largest price range was $350,000 to $400,000, and in second, $400,000 to $450,000.
            An illustration of the sizzling Bend housing market is captured in the history and recent sales in the  popular, mater planned Northwest Crossing neighborhood.
            The developer is Brooks Resources, a highly-respected company that evolved from the timber industry that once led the region’s economy. Brooks launched Northwest Crossing in the late 1990s with a mix of smaller city lots and craftsman-style homes and townhomes.
            An elementary school and pocket parks around a grid of legacy Ponderosa pines meshed with new landscaping make it one of the most attractive urban neighborhoods, with a feeling of suburbia.
            Initial sales of new homes were brisk, with prices generally in the higher $300,000s to upper $400,000s, with a few in the $500,000 and greater range. But, as throughout Bend and the rest of the country, the “Great Recession” fueled by easy lending standards followed by an economic crisis with mortgage defaults hit hard.
            Bend, center of a larger three county statistical area, went from the top of home price appreciation tracked by a federal housing monitor to nearly last on a list of 300.
            At one point, in the depth of the housing downturn, more than two dozen developer controlled lots in Northwest Crossing were put on the open market in the $50,000s. Prices edged higher as the recession faded with a recovery noticeable by 2013 and later. Builders returned to absorb lot inventory and begin new construction.

Multiple Offers Before Buyers Visit

            A recent pending sale in the neighborhood is a watermark for the current market trajectory beginning with a local builder seeing the opportunity as lots were available. He bought the lot for $84,000 in January of 2010, then built a 2,100 square foot, 3 bedroom, 3 bath home, selling it for $434,782 six months later.
            In late February 2021, after 11 years the owner listed the home for $969,000. A person familiar with the transaction noted the home was on the market for barely a week, before going into a sales contract. There were 20 showings, many of them local agents videoing the home for out of state buyers, seven offers over the listing price and three of more than $1 million, all but one of them cash with no financing contingency.
            The prospective buyers are both medical professionals, one a doctor the other a Phd in nursing, who lost two homes to fires in California within the past four years. They had not visited the home until after their offer was accepted by the seller.

            And, as a snapshot of the neighborhood, the current owners of homes on either side of this one also own residences in Seattle.
            As of the first week of March there were seven other pending sales in Northwest Crossing, at the lowest listed price of $725,000 for an attached townhome to $1.3 million for a 3 bedroom, 3 bath home of nearly 3,000 square feet.
            Although Northwest Crossing is hardly the most expensive neighborhood of Bend, pricing in other less pricey and formerly “more affordable” sections of the city have also experienced dramatic price increases—driven by a chronic lack of inventory for sale that has hovered under a two-month supply for the past few years. In January of this year was a scant 0.30 months based on the average of the previous 12 months sales.
            With a median household income of $65,662, according to US Census figures for 2015-2019. Many jobs have been slashed during the pandemic and days or hours reduced for others, moving the cost for entry level home buyers further out of reach.
            The squeeze of fewer homes and rising prices has resulted in the city and community groups pushing for more mixed use development within the current city limits. One target area is immediately east of the downtown core extending to the main north-south arterial of old US Highway 97/3rd Street with its mostly commercial businesses including auto dealerships, motels and shopping centers.

A Trend to Density Over Traditional Larger Lots

            This movement is contradictory to what many residents – and some builders – maintain is what made Bend attractive in past decades. From a traditional residential core of older stately homes and smaller cottages, residential development had extended outward with larger homes on larger lots, some a half to one acre in neighborhoods such as Awbrey Butte on the city’s west side.
            Brooks Resources also developed Awbrey Butte before downsizing the lots year later at Northwest Crossing. And perhaps a sign of the future, the company is also eyeing construction of a mixed use retail and condo or apartment project on a former commercial site east of downtown.
            The trend to mixed use projects and considerable new apartment construction is partially the result of Bend’s urban growth plan as approved by the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, which implements the state’s 1970s era growth management statute, SB 100. The law requires municipalities to project land needed for development 20 years into the future to identify land for an urban area reserve that could be brought within the urban growth boundary, or UGB.
            With the approval of its growth plan in 2016, after several unsuccessful plans were rejected by the state over a decade, Bend agreed to focus on “infill” development of existing land within city limits. Further development extending outward within the UGB footprint is for communities that include higher density, such as multi-family housing, along with single family residences, and land for business to create jobs.


            Altogether the state approval allows Bend to expand its urban growth boundary by approximately 2,400 acres. There could be more than 17,000 homes on half the acreage, with 800 acres for development related to employment facilities.
            But the future of Bend growth is vastly more complicated now as substantial population growth has already compressed the time needed for another look at potential expansion.
            In the nine years since 2010 the city has grown nearly 25% from about 85,000 in 2010 to 106,000 as estimated by the Bureau of Census. The Population Research Center of Portland State University estimates the 2020 population of Deschutes County at 197,000.
            One of the largest tracts of land in decades to be brought within the city would be what has been called the Stevens tract on Bend’s southeast boundary. The formerly state-owned land of 382 acres south of Reed Market Road and east of 27th Street was bought in 2020 for $22 million by Lands Bend Corp., whose officials include former California Republican Rep. Gary Miller.
            The purchase has initiated discussion of how the property, now called Stevens Ranch, will be developed and the process to bring 370 of the acres into the city through annexation in compliance with the urban growth plan. Another 12 acres already lie within city limits.
            The number of residences including single family homes, affordable housing and multi-family residences, business sites and parks will be initially defined in a master plan submitted by the development group for public comment and city review.
            A bill proposed in the 2021 state legislature would facilitate the city's effort to include the Stevens tract within current boundaries. Some city councilors are pushing for a significant part of the development to include affordable housing.
           
Miller and other investors have in recent years been involved in new Bend subdivisions, mostly in east and southeast areas of the city.

Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Snowpack, water and endangered species - A complicated calculus


            What a difference a month makes!
            The chatter among Mt. Bachelor ski area season pass holders at New Year’s Day celebrations mostly turned around dodging rocks and bare spots on the few runs that had opened this season.
            Then came the storms, which on the Northwest’s premier  9,000-foot plus favorite ski destination dumped more than 70 inches in seven days in a week ending January 13. By February 4, with periodic light and heavy snowstorms, the mid-mountain base topped 100 inches and the ski area's website noted January had seen the most snow on its slopes in 12 years.
            It wasn’t just the winter outdoor enthusiasts who were enjoying the bonanza. Deschutes basin irrigators and conservation groups were on board as the promise of a better snowpack portended an improved outlook for the coming year to improve reservoir levels for growing crops and stream flows for bull trout, steelhead trout and the spotted frog, species listed under the federal Endangered Species Act, or ESA. The potential for sockeye and Chinook salmon to be listed in the future is another factor in the discussion.
            On February 4, three largest reservoirs  in the Upper Deschutes River watershed that store water during the winter months were reporting levels ranging from 52% of  capacity in Crescent Lake; 57% Wickiup; and 82% Crane Prairie.
Oregon snowpack as of Feb 5 2020
            In the Crooked River basin, the largest reservoir, Prineville, which holds water above Bowman Dam, reported 60% of capacity, while Ochoco and Haystack Reservoirs on downstream tributaries in that basin were 47% and 79%, respectively.
            Another important metric is mountain snowpack and its water content in gauging and predicting the potential runoff as snows melt to recharge basin reservoir storage.
            As of February 5 the Natural Resources Conservation Service reported that the snowpack for Deschutes and connected stream basins ranged from 90%-99% of normal, and that readings from Snotel sites showed the snow water equivalent at near 15 inches, nudging the median for 1981 through 2010. And the SWE had jumped ahead of 2019 by more than four inches.           
              Habitat Conservation Plan               
            This “water year,” which began last fall for the Deschutes and Crooked watersheds, comes as irrigators are working to gain approval for a “habitat conservation plan,” ir HCP, an option of the ESA, presented in draft form at a series of public meetings with a comment period that concluded in early December.
            The HCP and a companion Federal Environmental Impact Statement, as required in the process, will now be released with any changes as final documents mapping Central Oregon water use for the next 30 years.
            The HCPs are frequently held out by federal agencies charged with enforcing the ESA  as a way for farmers, utilities, cities, and other stakeholders to obtain an “incidental take permit,” or ITP, as provided under the 1973 law.
         
 
   As an example, an irrigation district might agree to pipe open transmission ditches to conserve water that might be lost through leaking into the ground or evaporation. In return, the conserved water would show enforcement agencies thar the district was making an effort under the HCP to preserve habitat for bull trout , a species listed as threatened in the Deschutes and Crooked basins.
            The timing and volume of water releases from basin dams, in particular Wickiup Dam on the Upper Deschutes, would reflect needs of the spotted frog. Studies have shown the species requires less water to be released earlier in the growing season to protect eggs, and a steadier flow during other times of the water year.
            Also among options to address ESA requirements is the removal of acreage from irrigation, which under laws in Oregon and other states would make that “trust” water available instream for listed species. In most cases a farmer or irrigation district could recover the water in a later year if needed, and would not lose the water right.
                                 Irrigation for 244 square miles
            The regional effort to address ESA and water issues has coalesced through the Deschutes Basin Board of Control a coalition of eight irrigation districts, which together provide water to a total of just under 156,000 acres, an area equal to 244 square miles. Also participating is the City of Prineville, which relies groundwater withdrawal and surface diversions and treated effluent discharge involving the Crooked River basin. 
             An irony of the regional water situation is that the North Unit Irrigation District which potentially provides the resource for 59,000 acres and has the highest value of crops in Central Oregon holds "junior" water rights. As such other smaller districts including Central Oregon Irrigation District have "senior" rights and therefore first claim on all water in the basin in the "first in time, first in line" concept of centuries old western water law based on the "prior appropriation" doctriine.  
            The North Unit water rights are for storage in Wickiup Reservoir while COID's come from Crane Prairie upstream on the Deschutes. Nevertheless all water on the Deschutes including for districts with rights in other reservoirs must flow thorugh Wickiup. The result is a balancing act by dam managers for the districts and Bureau of Reclamation to insure, for example, that COID gets its water, initially held in Crane Prairie, out of Wickiup before North Unit, which suffers in low snowpack and storage years.
            By comparison as of Feb 10, Crane Prairie was 82% full, compared with Wickiup at 59%, putting the district in a much better position that the North Unit.
            Even with the improved snowpack in January and early February this year, North Unit water managers and farmers and ranchers in the district are already concerned at the low Wickiup storage. Several years of up and down runoff that have made it difficult to recharge the reservoir the following water year.
            Other entities involved in the ESA process, but not directly with the incidental take permit, have included the Confederate Tribes of Warm Springs, Trout Unlimited, the Deschutes River Conservancy and WaterWatch among others.
            Key federal agencies which must ultimately sign off on an HCP are the US Department of Fish and Wildlife and National Marine Fisheries Service. USFWS is responsible for actions involving the spotted frog and bull trout while NMFS directs efforts that would affect the ocean migrating steelhead trout.
            Section 7 ESA provisions provide that the federal agencies charged with species decision consult on strategies and actions affecting listed species. In the case of the Deschutes Basin, the federal Bureau of Reclamation, which operates Wickiup Dam, is also required to be a part of the process.
            In the final draft, the HCP and companion FEIS compare four options, one of those taking no action, which has been discounted.
            Among the other three options all would involve increasing fall and winter stream flows on the Deschutes. On the Crooked River the three choices would all boost water releases from Prineville Reservoir storage at increasing levels, similar to the Deschutes options.
            Other measures in the options would establish conservation funds and modify operation and maintenance of all “water facilities” involving flows into the Deschutes and Crooked basins.
            At the heart of the HCP process is regulation of releases from Wickiup, the region’s largest reservoir, through which stored water from Crane Prairie and Crescent reservoirs also flow.
Draft EIS/HCP water flow alternatives
            The “proposed action” as outlined in Alternative 2 would set a target of 100 cfs (cubic foot per second)  minimum fall/winter releases in years 1-5 of the plan; 200 cfs in years 6-10; 300 cfs in years 11-20 and 400 cfs in years 21-30.  
            Each cfs equals roughly 7.5 gallons a second; 450 gallons a minute and 27,000 gallons an hour. Extending that calculation, in 12 hours that flow rate would amount to one acre foot of water, or the amount to cover an acre of land with a foot of water.

Useful links for water and endangered species issues

Fact Sheet of Draft EIS for the Deschutes Basin HCP

Complete DRAFT HCP as of August 2019

A Timeline of the Spotted Frog ESA listing in the Deschutes Basin

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Skyline Forest timberland for sale: Priced well above current timber value


            The Asian-based owners of substantial timberland in Deschutes and Klamath counties have put up for sale a 33,000 acres portion of their holdings for a whopping $127 million, twice what they paid for that and other land acquired in a bulk sale of about 200,000 acres less than five years ago.
            The potential sale is listed on the website of ranch and land broker Mason & Morse of Colorado, which said the offering includes timberland, “providing high quality timber for harvest, great for logging industry development and liquidation.”
            Also noted is the possibility of large homebuilding sites, “private hunting and fishing, private parks and campgrounds,” as conditional uses on the property which is zoned F1 forestland. The minimum lot size is 240 acres as a conditional use, which would require county approval.
            “The property has significant long-term appreciation potential, with opportunity for sustainable timber management, conservation, abundant recreation, in combination with residential and mixed-use development,” the broker website noted.
            The listing information: https://www.ranchland.com/bull-springs-skyline-forest-bend-oregon-3431
            The announcement apparently caught the Deschutes Basin Land Trust by surprise, with the group quickly issuing a news release explaining its 15 year quest to have the property, which it has called Skyline Forest, preserved mostly for public recreational use and low impact sustainable timber harvest.
            In a news release Land Trust executive director Brad Chalfant said, “We remain fully committed to the permanent conservation of Skyline Forest for its wildlife, scenic views, and its recreational and educational potential,” adding that the group seeks to continue its efforts with the current owners.
            Although the name Skyline Forest took hold in the past decade, the property was originally known as the Bull Springs Tree Farm, an expansive intact acreage of numerous parcels stretching from Bend’s northwest border to the fringes of Sisters. The broker listing refers to the property as Bull Springs Skyline Forest.
            In the early 2000s Crown Pacific Timberland owned the land before losing it in bankruptcy to a subsidiary of John Hancock Insurance, which in turn sold it to Fidelity National Timberlands, then a subsidiary of publicly-traded Fidelity National Financial, which controls several of the nation’s largest title insurance companies..
            The Asian investment group, Shanda Asset Management, that now owns the property initially acquired it in 2015 through Whitefish Cascade Forest Resources LLC from the Fidelity timberland company. The Whitefish name apparently has its origin in the Whitefish, MT  business base of Bill Foley, chairman of Fidelity National Financial.
            A Securities and Exchange filing in 2015 by Fidelity noted the sale of the timberland to the Asian investors for $63 million. It is not clear from company annual reports and other documents how much Fidelity paid for the property. However, the 2013 annual report notes it recorded a "$6 million impairment" in 2012 related to “Cascade Timberlands.”
1: Boundary of Bull Springs Skyline - Mason & Morse
            The Shanda Asset principals at one time had addresses in Singapore, although online information indicates the bulk of the investors' wealth was derived from interactive internet and online gaming in the Chinese market. Other information shows that Shanda Group had a Hong Kong base.
            According to the broker’s estimate in the listing, the 33,000 acres is more than 93% Ponderosa pine, or 71,905 thousand board feet, with remaining stands of mostly White Fir. Ponderosa is a lower value species than others such as Douglas Fir and White Pine typically found in less arid locations of Oregon, Washington Idaho and Montana.
            Information posted online for the fall of 2019 by the University of Montana shows that the mill-delivered price of Ponderosa  for the western part of that state averaged $333 per board foot. Another online chart from an Idaho private broker estimated prices of $325 to $380 depending on the tree diameter.
            Assuming a higher price of $400 per thousand board foot, the 71,905 thousand board feet of Ponderosa estimated by the broker would currently be worth $28.774 million, or approximately $871 per acre.
            Current Deschutes County tax records list one of Skyline Forest/Bull Springs larger parcels of 12,543 acres at a “real market value of  $7,379,870, or $588 per acre. For the 2015-2016 year at the time it was purchased by the current owners the county estimated the real market value of that parcel at $4,865,730, or $387 per acre.
2:Deschutes Co. Destination Resort Map (dark)
            By most measures, the $3,848 per acre price for the 33,000 acres listed at $127 million is a staggering jump when considering the current price of standing timber, or "stumpage." It’s reasonable to consider much of the non-timber residual value in the listing price could be based on potential “highest and best use,” an appraisal term, which might include residential single family homes or cluster development as noted in the listing package, with additional value in long-term forestland growth.
            A more complex discounted cash flow calculation would factor in a laddered future value of long-term timberland management, including such points as periodic harvest thinning and reforestration as well as related expenses.
            Another more elusive value might be assigned to the potential of carbon sequestration, the process in which timberland absorbs atmospheric carbon and releases oxygen. With climate change has emerged a "cap and trade" market whereby business and industry can obtain credits created by timberland to offset operations that contribute to greenhouse gases. Or they might trade a permit that allows a defined amount of emissions.         
            There had been  discussions with previous owners that portions of the land might be developed as a destination resort. But current zoning and a 2017 state law requiring that destination resorts be more than 24 miles from an urban growth boundary of cities of more than 100,000 population could be impediments.  The state law also requires counties to develop a wildfire protection that “demonstrates the site can be developed without being at a high overall risk of fire."
           Two wildfires, the Two Bulls in 2014 and Rooster Rock in 2011, have burned more than 10,000 acres of the property before the 2015 acquisition by Shanda Asset Group.
            Bend’s growth is fast approaching the population threshold related to resorts. And the property is not currently designated on Deschutes County’s comprehensive plan for a potential destination resort. (See map 2 - resort map area is south of Skyline). 
 
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