A Look Back at 2019: Sales flat and prices up

            It’s that time of year.

            The tree ornaments, the Menorah and other holiday symbols have been boxed away for another year. Auld lang syne, the fireworks and the Times Square ball are fading memories. The hangover – figurative and literal - is hopefully really over.

            Now it’s time many pundits look in the rear view mirror at all the important and mundane events of 2019

 and venture some off the cuff, and maybe off the wall, prognostications. We could get into politics—impeachment, Ukraine, Russia, gaslighting, real news, fake news, the 2020 election, turmoil in the royal family and on and on. But not here

            Instead let’s take a backward look at the real estate market - though no predictions coming from this quarter. You digest the data and make your own conclusions.

            When it comes to pinning down the current state of the market, if you ask a broker you’re likely to get opinions that might cut both ways. It’s a seller’s market, but that could change, time to get listed, a listing broker might say. Or, it’s a buyers market, don’t wait until prices escalate further, from somene representing a buyer.

            To the point: the available 2019 statistics for single family home sales in Bend show that median prices for the year increased by 4.55% when calculated for a “rolling” (or “moving”) 12 months ending December 31. In other words the median of the 12 month median was $447,500 compared with $428,000 for the same period of 2018.

            The numbers are for single family homes on less than an acre in the submarket of Bend/Tumalo/Alfalfa, as reported by the MLS of Central Oregon database and compiled by Beacaon Appraisal.

            Median prices – which splits sales by prices equally above and below the given number – are more reliable trend indicators than averaging sales, a method that can skew the market profile through, for example, a small number of mega-dollar transactions.

            For the past year Bend recorded 2,355 single family sales with 317 homes listed as of year end, translating to an inventory of less than two months availability – calculated by averaging monthly sales. Inventory has been stuck near that level for the past few years, as homes coming to market including new and existing ones, have not kept pace with sales.

            Depending on various analyst opinions, a market in balance is in the range of 4-5 months supply to create a more even playing field for sellers and buyers.

Bend and Redmond 2019

            One factor could be that owners of existing homes may feel less pressure to move up, or downsize in the case of empty nesters, and could be waiting to see how far prices will rise. Meanwhile entry-level buyers find themselves competing for newer, lower-priced homes in builder subdivisions and maybe even settling for older ones sometimes described as “a charmer waiting for your special touch.”

            Bend is by far the largest sub-market of the seven areas of Central Oregon in the MLS database, followed by Redmond-Terrebonne. Together they accounted for 79.65% of the reported 4,232 yearly regional sales. The total was remarkably close to 2018 closings of 4,286.

            The top four price ranges, in $50,000 stages, in Bend were from $300,000 to $500,000, or 57.70% of the total. Bend also had 123 sales above $1 million a jump from 100 in 2018.

            The rolling or moving median price for 2019 in Redmond was $325,000, up 9.61% from the same 12 months of 2018. The 1,016 total sales and 147 listings at the close of the year mirrored Bend’s at less than two months available inventory.

            Redmond’s top four price ranges were from $250,000 to $400,000, a total of 78.44% of all sales. There was only a single sale of $1 million or more.

            Among the smaller markets Beacon Appraisal reported only quarterly median sales prices. In that method, Sunriver’s median closing price calculated for the four quarters of 2019 was the highest at $513,500, followed by Sisters, $432,400; Crook Country (incl. Prineville), $253,000; LaPine, $250,000; and Jefferson County/Crooked River Ranch, $218,500.