Focus on Bend: Drought

Showing posts with label Drought. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 5, 2022

The Drought Worsens: Another summer of crop and wildfire problems expected

Update: Significant new snowfall of nearly four feet that began April 8 in the high country will result in new snowpack information for the Oregon Cascades and Deschutes Basin. As of early April 12 the NRCS Snotel gauges at Three Creeks Meadow showed that snowpack had increased from 84% of median on April 4 to 91%, and that snow water equivalent rose to 30% of median from 16%. Early April 14 Mt. Bachelor ski area reported 43 inches in the past seven days and a base of 104 inches, the first time over 100 inches this ski season. Water resource officials say it's not likely the new snowfall will substantially alleviate coming summer drought conditions.

            First the good news: It rained April 4 in lower elevations and snowed up to a foot in the higher country. Mt. Bachelor touted 10 inches overnight to freshen the slopes.
            Now the bad news: It is unlikely that even an unseasonably wet April and May will bring much relief to drought conditions that are only worsening as much of Central Oregon heads into summer.
                 A look at the federal Drought Monitor map for Oregon as of March 31 shows the state and Nevada are the only ones in the western United States with counties experiencing “exceptional” drought – the driest conditions reported.
            All told 15.01% of Oregon is in the exceptional category and 88% rated as being from severe to exceptional. East of the Cascades only portions of several counties along the northern border escape being in the severe or worse drought categories.
            Crook County is the only one of all the counties entirely in the exceptional category. But significant chunks of Deschutes, Jefferson, Lake and Klamath join Crook in having the worst conditions.

            Notably, California is experiencing overall the worst drought conditions in the nation with the entire state in a range of severe to exceptional drought. But none of the state is listed as in exceptional drought.
            The federal drought monitor is a project of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska, with data collected from cooperating federal agencies including the US Department of Agriculture, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Department of Commerce.
            Also offering scant evidence that drought conditions will improve is data on snowpack and its moisture content, or snow water equivalent, reported by the Natural Resources Conservation Service, part of the federal agriculture department.
            The NRCS’ Snotel location for Three Creeks Meadows registered a snowpack of 84% of the median. But the water content of the snowpack was only 16% of median.
            The daunting outlook for summer has already resulted in the Governor’s drought declarations for Jefferson, Crook and Klamath counties, the latter which has resulted in massive acreage lying fallow in recent years due to climate and endangered species issues. Deschutes County has also declared a drought and is waiting for the Governor’s action, which will unlock some relief in the form of subsidies to haul livestock water, ability to tap groundwater wells and graze land placed in conservation.
            Apart from the agricultural impacts the dry conditions have already prompted warnings from wildfire management agencies to brace for an active summer season that could begin early earlier than usual and extend longer.

Eager shredders at the lift line April 14

            Jefferson County has (or had) Central Oregon’s most productive agricultural lands before the continuing drought of the past few years. The North Unit Irrigation District which manages irrigation water in much of Jefferson County has cut allocation to 0.45 acre feet of water per acre, from the Deschutes River system, and 0.225 from the Crooked River.
            An acre foot is the amount of water required to cover an acre of land to a depth of one foot, or approximately 326,000 gallons.
            As reported by The Bulletin of Bend the allotment is the lowest in district history and only one-fourth of an average year.
            The North Unit district, and its growers and livestock ranchers, are at the mercy not only of overarching climatic conditions but also challenges to manage water releases from the region’s dams to protect the endangered spotted frog.
            And the North Unit’s water rights are junior to those of the Central Oregon Irrigation District, most of whose members use water primarily for hay production rather than higher value food crops.
            Most of the irrigation water in the Deschutes and Crooked River basins comes from snowmelt and is captured in upstream reservoirs.

            A look at the early season levels in several reservoirs emphasizes the remarkable obstacles confronting water users this summer.
            On April 5 Wickiup Reservoir, which holds water for North Unit junior water rights irrigators, was at 55% capacity, holding 110,244 acre feet compared with 115,403 the same time last year and 42% below historic average.
            By contrast, Crane Prairie Reservoir, which holds water for COID’s senior rights, above Wickiup on the Deschutes River, was 85% full at 49,967 acre feet, only slightly below 2021 at 45,298 and ahead of the 42,406 acre feet average.
            Recognizing the distortion between senior and water rights, COID officials have been encouraging its members who do not need water for the coming season to, in effect, contribute it for the benefit of North Unit irrigators.
            Oregon water law permits water rights to be returned “instream” for habitat and fish conservation, which can also free water for use by junior rights holders. New efforts are underway to create a "water bank" that could theoretically provide a market to provide the resource to where the need is greater.

Another drought season in the works: Low snowpack and reservoirs

Snowpack, water and endangered species - A complicated calculus

Fact Sheet of Draft EIS for the Deschutes Basin HCP

https://www.fws.gov/oregonfwo/Documents/DeschutesHCP/deisFR/mtgs/Deschutes%20Fact%20Sheet%20-%20WEB.pdf

Complete DRAFT HCP as of August 2019

https://www.fws.gov/oregonfwo/Documents/DeschutesHCP/deisFR/DBHCP%20Entire%20Document%20August%202019.pdf

A Timeline of the Spotted Frog ESA listing in the Deschutes Basin

https://bendisbetter.blogspot.com/2016/02/spotted-frog-esa-listing-creates.html

Sunday, August 15, 2021

We didn't start the fire
It was always burning, since the world's been turning
We didn't start the fire
No, we didn't light it, but we tried to fight it...
....Joel William M (aka Billy Joel)

            Although there’s little doubt among anyone in Bend, the statistics back up that summer of 2021 is a scorcher for the archives.
            A look a daily weather temperatures for June and July this year compared with 2020 and 2019 shows how dramatic temperatues have risen year over year.
            There were 24 days out of 31 with highs of 90 degrees or greater in July this year, compared with 12 in that range in 2020 and only seven in 2019.
            July was no slacker in the heat index, but June of this year was especially notable. There were 15 of 30 days above 90 degrees, compared with only two in 2020 and just a single day in June of 2019. Of June days above 90, there were five reading more than 100, including a record 111 on June 29.
            August of 2021 is also showing its muscle on the heat index, with eight of the first 12 days above 90, two of those topping 100. Through the same period of August 2020, only five days were 90 or more, and none of 100 or more.
            The first 12 days of August 2019 was hotter than 2021 with seven days above 90, although none reached 100.
            Escalating summer heat is unpleasant, but the accompanying consequence of more frequent and catastrophic wildfires is making summers in Bend and much of the West more an excercise of enduring smoke-filled and dangerous air quality.
            This summer Bend had remained mostly smoke free, although wildfires to the northwest near Sisters, on the Warm Springs reservation north of Madras, south around LaPine burned in July—along with the mammoth Bootleg fire northeast of Klamath Falls all burned.

Air quality map August 13, 2021

            But as August began. smoke from various blazes, including Calfornia’s largest Dixie Fire in the northern Sierras, joined other pollution emerging with new fires from Roseberg north along the Cascades to create numerous days of unhealthy air.
            Checking the thermometer each morning is now even secondary to a look at the Air Quality Index to see if we’ve dropped back from very unhealthy to just unhealthy, with hopes that we’ll see the moderate yellow graphic shade some time.
            Coupled with the intense heat, smoke has rendered nearly empty at times the normally busy offleash dog parks and the city’s outdoor soccer and pickleball courts.
            Then came resumption of statewide indoor mask mandates prompted by surging Covid cases and hospitalizations straining the region’s healthcare provider. This has forced restaurants and retail businesses back in a position of last winter and spring when the virus especially hammered the lodging and food service sectors.

Bend AQI: 251 August 14, 2021

           The noxious smoky air has impeded restaurants from maximizing outdoor dining, putting owners back into a position of having to police indoor visits from Covid and mask weary customers.
            Anyone walking along town streets was as likely to see more people masked to avoid the hazardous wildfire-fueled smoke as to stave off the relentless virus.
            Besides the temperature data for this summer, all along the west coast the wildfire and smoke hazards have extended to the Rockes and beyond, with reports of pollution carried thousands of miles to cities of the nation’s Northeastern metropolitan corridor.
            One of the most dramatic examples of fires around the globe is available in an online world view showing the west coast of the United States and raging wildfires in the taiga of Siberia, with its vegetation that once served as a buffer to capture ozone-depleting carbon.

Global hotspots: US West coast and Siberia

Fire in the normally colder, Siberian boreal forest is in one sense beneficial, releasing heat-induced cone seeds in a natural cycle to replenish the landscape. But instead of approximately 50-year major fire events, the cycle is now recurring almost yearly. The same phenomenon is being replicated in Alaska’s boreal landscape.
            Scientists also say the more frequent fires potentially unleash what is known as “legacy carbon,” from a thick layor of organic material that burns less frequently. And warming Siberian temperatues have caused erosion in the area’s permafrost regions with similar effect.
            Any time there’s a debate about climate change, the dialogue often devolves into whether statistics verifying a overheating planet are indicative of typical rotating“weather” patterns or a larger trend of “global warming.”
            As with much in the United States these days, the preponderance of scientific evidence often comes up against a political wall built on a foundation of disinformation, questionable statistics and cries of don’t take my “freedum,” fitting a narrative often designed to defend fossil fuels or some elusive and fading thread of a patriotically perfect American history.
            The dialectic could be comparable to the eschewing of science that supports masks and vaccines as weapons against the deadly coronavirus – transferred to a resistance to recognize and support measures that might help solve the pandemic and climate challenges.
            “No, we didn’t light it, but we tried to fight it,” as Billy Joel wrote.
            True, we may not have started the metaphorical looming disasters of the song.
            Nevertheless we – government, science, industry and individuals – now own them. And by proximity and circumstance we now have an obligation to continue fighting for solutions.

Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Snowpack, water and endangered species - A complicated calculus

What a difference a month makes!

The chatter among Mt. Bachelor ski area season pass holders at New Year’s Day celebrations mostly turned around dodging rocks and bare spots on the few runs that had opened this season.

Then came the storms, which on the Northwest’s premier 9,000-foot plus favorite ski destination dumped more than 70 inches in seven days in a week ending January 13. By February 4, with periodic light and heavy snowstorms, the mid-mountain base topped 100 inches and the ski area's website noted January had seen the most snow on its slopes in 12 years.

It wasn’t just the winter outdoor enthusiasts who were enjoying the bonanza. Deschutes basin irrigators and conservation groups were on board as the promise of a better snowpack portended an improved outlook for the coming year to improve reservoir levels for growing crops and stream flows for bull trout, steelhead trout and the spotted frog, species listed under the federal Endangered Species Act, or ESA. The potential for sockeye and Chinook salmon to be listed in the future is another factor in the discussion.

On February 4, three largest reservoirs in the Upper Deschutes River watershed that store water during the winter months were reporting levels ranging from 52% of capacity in Crescent Lake; 57% Wickiup; and 82% Crane Prairie.

Oregon snowpack as of Feb 5 2020

In the Crooked River basin, the largest reservoir, Prineville, which holds water above Bowman Dam, reported 60% of capacity, while Ochoco and Haystack Reservoirs on downstream tributaries in that basin were 47% and 79%, respectively.

Another important metric is mountain snowpack and its water content in gauging and predicting the potential runoff as snows melt to recharge basin reservoir storage.

As of February 5 the Natural Resources Conservation Service reported that the snowpack for Deschutes and connected stream basins ranged from 90%-99% of normal, and that readings from Snotel sites showed the snow water equivalent at near 15 inches, nudging the median for 1981 through 2010. And the SWE had jumped ahead of 2019 by more than four inches.

Habitat Conservation Plan

This “water year,” which began last fall for the Deschutes and Crooked watersheds, comes as irrigators are working to gain approval for a “habitat conservation plan,” ir HCP, an option of the ESA, presented in draft form at a series of public meetings with a comment period that concluded in early December.

The HCP and a companion Federal Environmental Impact Statement, as required in the process, will now be released with any changes as final documents mapping Central Oregon water use for the next 30 years.

The HCPs are frequently held out by federal agencies charged with enforcing the ESA as a way for farmers, utilities, cities, and other stakeholders to obtain an “incidental take permit,” or ITP, as provided under the 1973 law.

As an example, an irrigation district might agree to pipe open transmission ditches to conserve water that might be lost through leaking into the ground or evaporation. In return, the conserved water would show enforcement agencies thar the district was making an effort under the HCP to preserve habitat for bull trout , a species listed as threatened in the Deschutes and Crooked basins.

The timing and volume of water releases from basin dams, in particular Wickiup Dam on the Upper Deschutes, would reflect needs of the spotted frog. Studies have shown the species requires less water to be released earlier in the growing season to protect eggs, and a steadier flow during other times of the water year.

Also among options to address ESA requirements is the removal of acreage from irrigation, which under laws in Oregon and other states would make that “trust” water available instream for listed species. In most cases a farmer or irrigation district could recover the water in a later year if needed, and would not lose the water right.
Irrigation for 244 square miles

            The regional effort to address ESA and water issues has coalesced through the Deschutes Basin Board of Control a coalition of eight irrigation districts, which together provide water to a total of just under 156,000 acres, an area equal to 244 square miles. Also participating is the City of Prineville, which relies groundwater withdrawal and surface diversions and treated effluent discharge involving the Crooked River basin.
             An irony of the regional water situation is that the North Unit Irrigation District which potentially provides the resource for 59,000 acres and has the highest value of crops in Central Oregon holds "junior" water rights. As such other smaller districts including Central Oregon Irrigation District have "senior" rights and therefore first claim on all water in the basin in the "first in time, first in line" concept of centuries old western water law based on the "prior appropriation" doctriine.
            The North Unit water rights are for storage in Wickiup Reservoir while COID's come from Crane Prairie upstream on the Deschutes. Nevertheless all water on the Deschutes including for districts with rights in other reservoirs must flow thorugh Wickiup. The result is a balancing act by dam managers for the districts and Bureau of Reclamation to insure, for example, that COID gets its water, initially held in Crane Prairie, out of Wickiup before North Unit, which suffers in low snowpack and storage years.
By comparison as of Feb 10, Crane Prairie was 82% full, compared with Wickiup at 59%, putting the district in a much better position that the North Unit.
            Even with the improved snowpack in January and early February this year, North Unit water managers and farmers and ranchers in the district are already concerned at the low Wickiup storage. Several years of up and down runoff that have made it difficult to recharge the reservoir the following water year.

Other entities involved in the ESA process, but not directly with the incidental take permit, have included the Confederate Tribes of Warm Springs, Trout Unlimited, the Deschutes River Conservancy and WaterWatch among others.

Key federal agencies which must ultimately sign off on an HCP are the US Department of Fish and Wildlife and National Marine Fisheries Service. USFWS is responsible for actions involving the spotted frog and bull trout while NMFS directs efforts that would affect the ocean migrating steelhead trout.

Section 7 ESA provisions provide that the federal agencies charged with species decision consult on strategies and actions affecting listed species. In the case of the Deschutes Basin, the federal Bureau of Reclamation, which operates Wickiup Dam, is also required to be a part of the process.

In the final draft, the HCP and companion FEIS compare four options, one of those taking no action, which has been discounted.

Among the other three options all would involve increasing fall and winter stream flows on the Deschutes. On the Crooked River the three choices would all boost water releases from Prineville Reservoir storage at increasing levels, similar to the Deschutes options.

Other measures in the options would establish conservation funds and modify operation and maintenance of all “water facilities” involving flows into the Deschutes and Crooked basins.

At the heart of the HCP process is regulation of releases from Wickiup, the region’s largest reservoir, through which stored water from Crane Prairie and Crescent reservoirs also flow.

Draft EIS/HCP water flow alternatives

The “proposed action” as outlined in Alternative 2 would set a target of 100 cfs (cubic foot per second) minimum fall/winter releases in years 1-5 of the plan; 200 cfs in years 6-10; 300 cfs in years 11-20 and 400 cfs in years 21-30.

Each cfs equals roughly 7.5 gallons a second; 450 gallons a minute and 27,000 gallons an hour. Extending that calculation, in 12 hours that flow rate would amount to one acre foot of water, or the amount to cover an acre of land with a foot of water.

Useful links for water and endangered species issues