No surpise: Bend is growing rapidly says Census Bureau

            The recent news from the federal Census Bureau estimating Bend’s population has leaped above 90,000 placing it Number 6 on the fastest growing cities of more than 50,000 in the country likely stirred opinions ranging from dismay to civic pride to invevitability.

            Already a growing number of local vehicles are adorned with bumper sticker variations of the phrase, “Don’t move here, it sucks.” City services are being challenged to keep pace with growth.

            Bend is also now working with an urban growth blueprint, approved by the state, that will channel much new development into existing land within the city and limit expansion outside the current boundary to approximately 2,000 acres.

            Lack of affordable housing more in line with local wages, sewer capacity straining to accommodate new housing, inadequate snow removal capability with resulting potholed and rutted streets and worn-out lane striping are a few markers of the city’s rapid ascension as Oregon’s fastest growing city since the “big recession” and related housing crunch.
             And there are those who say Bend has outgrown its small town government of elected city councilors who work with little compensation and elect a mayor from among their peers, instead of adequately compensated members and a leader chosen by popular vote of residents.

            On the flip side of rapid growth, anyone who held onto their house as the market troughed in 2006 and 2007 can take comfort that Bend’s median priced home is now above $375,000 at the end of 2016, topping the previous high of $365,000 in 2006. Thus far, the median monthly price has held in the $370,000s during 2017.

            Moreover, anyone who was able to buy into the depressed market of the past decade has  seen substantial growth in value since the median home price hit bottom at around $200,000 in 2011.

            The Census Bureau report pegs Bend’s population on July 1, 2016, the latest reporting period, at 91,122, an increase of 4.9% over the 10 years.

            Of the top five cities of more than 50,000 growing faster than Bend, four were in Texas and the other was Greenville, SC.

            The Census Bureau’s estimates are substantially higher than the 83,500 residents in July of 2016 estimated by Portland State University’s research center. The federal agency’s methodology relies on individual federal records including Social Security, driver’s license information and tax records, while Portland State uses statistics related to building permits and development.

            As such it would appear that the Census Bureau figures would more accurately reflect the actual number of residents.

            For a complete summary of the Census report:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2017/cb17-81-population-estimates-subcounty.html#most-populous

Bend Single Family Home Sales 12 month through April 2017

            Wrapping up the first four months of 2017 the regional real estate market continues to exhibit the same trends that have characterized it for the past few years—prices reaching new levels with demand high and inventory extremely tight.

            Parsing the recent report from Beacon Appraisal Group, which analyzes MLS of Central Oregon data, shows that the median price of a single family home in Bend has been hovering at the median price of $370,000 for the past 12 months.

            Beacon’s 12-month median of $370,000 is essentially the same as the median closing price of $369,950 for the week closing May 13 reported by Trulia, now owned by Zillow.

            But in the past two months of March and April, the median price jumped above $390,000, up from a dip to $354,000 in February. Some observers believe the February number may be attributed in part to the severe winter weather that delayed closings as sellers and home inspectors struggled to assess roof and other possible damage from cold, snow and ice.

Source: Beacon Appraisal Group, from MLSCO data.

            May and June could show whether the bump in median prices signifies a consistently new high bar going in to the traditional height of the buying season.

            At the end of April the Beacon Report reveals that 2,503 single family homes were sold in Bend over the previous 12 months, topping out at 260 sales in August of 2016. There were only 455 active listings at the end of April, or a meager 2-month inventory based on the average 12-month sales.

            A snapshot of the region’s second largest market in Redmond shows a median price of $266,000 for the 12 months ending in April, on sales of 942 homes. The Redmond inventory was only 176 at the end of April, or identical to the 2-month supply in Bend.

           

Source: Beacon Appraisal Group from MLSCO data

Redmond also mirrored Bend as it notched it’s highest median closing prices of $284,000 and $285,000 in March and April, respectively.

            Also tracking evenly with it’s neighbor to the south, Redmond’s highest monthly sales, 96, came in August of 2016.

            Elsewhere in the region, Beacon’s report for smaller markets in Sisters, Sunriver, LaPine, Jefferson County/Crooked River Ranch and Crook County (including Prineville) showed very tight inventory of three months or less in all except Sisters, which had a 4.5 month supply of active listings.

            Inventory of five to six months is considered to be a more balanced supply-demand market.

            Sunriver, with a median April price of $491,000 and Sisters, at $455,000, led all areas but each had sales of only 12 homes in April, a fraction of either Bend or Redmond sales.