The Drought Worsens: Another summer of crop and wildfire problems expected

 Update: Significant new snowfall of nearly four feet  that began April 8 in the high country will result in new snowpack information for the Oregon Cascades and Deschutes Basin. As of early April 12 the NRCS Snotel gauges at Three Creeks Meadow showed that snowpack had increased from 84% of median on April 4 to 91%, and that snow water equivalent rose to 30% of median from 16%. Early April 14 Mt. Bachelor ski area reported 43 inches in the past seven days and a base of 104 inches, the first time over 100 inches this ski season. Water resource officials say it's not likely the new snowfall will substantially alleviate coming summer drought conditions.

            First the good news: It rained April 4 in lower elevations and snowed up to a foot in the higher country. Mt. Bachelor touted 10 inches overnight to freshen the slopes.
            Now the bad news: It is unlikely that even an unseasonably wet April and May will bring much relief to drought conditions that are only worsening as much of Central Oregon heads into summer. 
                 A look at the federal Drought Monitor map for Oregon as of March 31 shows the state and Nevada are the only ones in the western United States with counties experiencing “exceptional” drought – the driest conditions reported.
            All told 15.01% of Oregon is in the exceptional category and 88% rated as being from severe to exceptional. East of the Cascades only portions of several counties along the northern border escape being in the severe or worse drought categories.
            Crook County is the only one of all the counties entirely in the exceptional category. But significant chunks of Deschutes, Jefferson, Lake and Klamath join Crook in having the worst conditions.

            Notably, California is experiencing overall the worst drought conditions in the nation with the entire state in a range of severe to exceptional drought. But none of the state is listed as in exceptional drought.
            The federal drought monitor is a project of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska, with data collected from cooperating federal agencies including the US Department of Agriculture, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Department of Commerce.
            Also offering scant evidence that drought conditions will improve is data on snowpack and its moisture content, or snow water equivalent, reported by the Natural Resources Conservation Service, part of the federal agriculture department.
            The NRCS’ Snotel location for Three Creeks Meadows registered a snowpack of 84% of the median. But the water content of the snowpack was only 16% of median.
            The daunting outlook for summer has already resulted in the Governor’s drought declarations for Jefferson, Crook and Klamath counties, the latter which has resulted in massive acreage lying fallow in recent years due to climate and endangered species issues. Deschutes County has also declared a drought and is waiting for the Governor’s action, which will unlock some relief in the form of subsidies to haul livestock water, ability to tap groundwater wells and graze land placed in conservation.
            Apart from the agricultural impacts the dry conditions have already prompted warnings from wildfire management agencies to brace for an active summer season that could begin early earlier than usual and extend longer.

Eager shredders at the lift line April 14

            Jefferson County has (or had) Central Oregon’s most productive agricultural lands before the continuing drought of the past few years. The North Unit Irrigation District which manages irrigation water in much of Jefferson County has cut allocation to 0.45 acre feet of water per acre, from the Deschutes River system, and 0.225 from the Crooked River.
            An acre foot is the amount of water required to cover an acre of land to a depth of one foot, or approximately 326,000 gallons.
            As reported by The Bulletin of Bend the allotment is the lowest in district history and only one-fourth of an average year.
            The North Unit district, and its growers and livestock ranchers, are at the mercy not only of overarching climatic conditions but also challenges to manage water releases from the region’s dams to protect the endangered spotted frog.
            And the North Unit’s water rights are junior to those of the Central Oregon Irrigation District, most of whose members use water primarily for hay production rather than higher value food crops.
            Most of the irrigation water in the Deschutes and Crooked River basins comes from snowmelt and is captured in upstream reservoirs.

            A look at the early season levels in several reservoirs emphasizes the remarkable obstacles confronting water users this summer.
            On April 5 Wickiup Reservoir, which holds water for North Unit junior water rights irrigators, was at 55% capacity, holding 110,244 acre feet compared with 115,403 the same time last year and 42% below historic average.
            By contrast, Crane Prairie Reservoir, which holds water for COID’s senior rights, above Wickiup on the Deschutes River, was 85% full at 49,967 acre feet, only slightly below 2021 at 45,298 and ahead of the 42,406 acre feet average.
            Recognizing the distortion between senior and water rights, COID officials have been encouraging its members who do not need water for the coming season to, in effect, contribute it for the benefit of North Unit irrigators.
            Oregon water law permits water rights to be returned “instream” for habitat and fish conservation, which can also free water for use by junior rights holders. New efforts are underway to create a "water bank" that could theoretically provide a market to provide the resource to where the need is greater.

 Previous

DROUGHT: The glass lower than half empty made even worse with a June heatwave

Another drought season in the works: Low snowpack and reservoirs

 Snowpack, water and endangered species - A complicated calculus

Fact Sheet of Draft EIS for the Deschutes Basin HCP

https://www.fws.gov/oregonfwo/Documents/DeschutesHCP/deisFR/mtgs/Deschutes%20Fact%20Sheet%20-%20WEB.pdf

Complete DRAFT HCP as of August 2019

https://www.fws.gov/oregonfwo/Documents/DeschutesHCP/deisFR/DBHCP%20Entire%20Document%20August%202019.pdf

A Timeline of the Spotted Frog ESA listing in the Deschutes Basin

https://bendisbetter.blogspot.com/2016/02/spotted-frog-esa-listing-creates.html

Bend housing sticker shock: Manic level multiple offers for some homes

             A longtime friend from our river guide days in Jackson Hole recently wrote that his wife was ready to leave the far northern California town that has been their home for decades.
            Seeking a new location, she turned to cruising Zillow for listings in Bend and Central Oregon, trusting that a new home could be on the horizon.
            “She was aghast at the real estate prices,” the friend wrote. “She was fantasizing about a small amount of acreage within shouting distance of Bend...," he added
            “She asked me to ask you (to)... deliver the bad news and revel in the fact you were smart enough to find Bend before the world found Bend.”
            Unfortunately, I could only reply to the friends--she a professional social services director and he an attorney--that many of us who have been in Central Oregon for some time are also perplexed at the “sticker shock” facing potential newcomers.
            “Expatriate Californians, Portlanders and Seattleites are driving prices to new levels. Many are able to work remotely, or they are taking advantage of good stock portfolio performances to retire. Or a combination of both,” I offered.
|            The friends are only one snapshot of a growing album of Bend wannabes. They soon  realize that an outdoor-friendly lifestyle, generally temperate weather, and other attractions that are magnets for newcomers have a companion effect—a pricey real estate market. Some soon realize that yet another “last best place,” as various locations around the country have also been called, is more out of reach.
            A casual look at housing reports from other locations confirms the trend. Bozeman, Livingston and Whitefish in Montana, and Prescott, AZ; Sandpoint, ID; Walla Walla, WA; and Austin, TX are just a few places where “discovery” has long passed the cachet of finding a hidden gem.

A Significant Jump in Million Dollar Sales

            One measure of Bend housing cost escalation, albeit a narrow one, is the past three years of in-city sales that closed above $1 million. In 2018 there were 100 sales above $1 million and none above $1.8 million. The figures come from the Beacon Report of Beacon Appraisal Group, based on the Central Oregon MLS database.
            In 2020 the number had leapfrogged to 231, with 35 sales crossing the $1.8 million mark, as framed in Beacon’s graph of sales by segmented price ranges. And, already in 2021 there were 15 closing in January, double the six during the same month of 2020.
            Another broader look at price ranges below the “million dollar club” also shows the upwardly migrating price points in Bend.
            In 2018 most single family homes in Bend sold in the range of $300,000 to $350,000, with the second highest category from  $350,000 to $400,000. In 2020 the largest price range was $350,000 to $400,000, and in second, $400,000 to $450,000.
            An illustration of the sizzling Bend housing market is captured in the history and recent sales in the  popular, mater planned Northwest Crossing neighborhood.
            The developer is Brooks Resources, a highly-respected company that evolved from the timber industry that once led the region’s economy. Brooks launched Northwest Crossing in the late 1990s with a mix of smaller city lots and craftsman-style homes and townhomes.
            An elementary school and pocket parks around a grid of legacy Ponderosa pines meshed with new landscaping make it one of the most attractive urban neighborhoods, with a feeling of suburbia.
            Initial sales of new homes were brisk, with prices generally in the higher $300,000s to upper $400,000s, with a few in the $500,000 and greater range. But, as throughout Bend and the rest of the country, the “Great Recession” fueled by easy lending standards followed by an economic crisis with mortgage defaults hit hard.
            Bend, center of a larger three county statistical area, went from the top of home price appreciation tracked by a federal housing monitor to nearly last on a list of 300.
            At one point, in the depth of the housing downturn, more than two dozen developer controlled lots in Northwest Crossing were put on the open market in the $50,000s. Prices edged higher as the recession faded with a recovery noticeable by 2013 and later. Builders returned to absorb lot inventory and begin new construction.

Multiple Offers Before Buyers Visit

            A recent pending sale in the neighborhood is a watermark for the current market trajectory beginning with a local builder seeing the opportunity as lots were available. He bought the lot for $84,000 in January of 2010, then built a 2,100 square foot, 3 bedroom, 3 bath home, selling it for $434,782 six months later.
            In late February 2021, after 11 years the owner listed the home for $969,000. A person familiar with the transaction noted the home was on the market for barely a week, before going into a sales contract. There were 20 showings, many of them local agents videoing the home for out of state buyers, seven offers over the listing price and three of more than $1 million, all but one of them cash with no financing contingency.
            The prospective buyers are both medical professionals, one a doctor the other a Phd in nursing, who lost two homes to fires in California within the past four years. They had not visited the home until after their offer was accepted by the seller.

            And, as a snapshot of the neighborhood, the current owners of homes on either side of this one also own residences in Seattle.
            As of the first week of March there were seven other pending sales in Northwest Crossing, at the lowest listed price of $725,000 for an attached townhome to $1.3 million for a 3 bedroom, 3 bath home of nearly 3,000 square feet.
            Although Northwest Crossing is hardly the most expensive neighborhood of Bend, pricing in other less pricey and formerly “more affordable” sections of the city have also experienced dramatic price increases—driven by a chronic lack of inventory for sale that has hovered under a two-month supply for the past few years. In January of this year was a scant 0.30 months based on the average of the previous 12 months sales.
            With a median household income of $65,662, according to US Census figures for 2015-2019. Many jobs have been slashed during the pandemic and days or hours reduced for others, moving the cost for entry level home buyers further out of reach.
            The squeeze of fewer homes and rising prices has resulted in the city and community groups pushing for more mixed use development within the current city limits. One target area is immediately east of the downtown core extending to the main north-south arterial of old US Highway 97/3^rd Street with its mostly commercial businesses including auto dealerships, motels and shopping centers.

A Trend to Density Over Traditional Larger Lots

            This movement is contradictory to what many residents – and some builders – maintain is what made Bend attractive in past decades. From a traditional residential core of older stately homes and smaller cottages, residential development had extended outward with larger homes on larger lots, some a half to one acre in neighborhoods such as Awbrey Butte on the city’s west side.
            Brooks Resources also developed Awbrey Butte before downsizing the lots year later at Northwest Crossing. And perhaps a sign of the future, the company is also eyeing construction of a mixed use retail and condo or apartment project on a former commercial site east of downtown.
            The trend to mixed use projects and considerable new apartment construction is partially the result of Bend’s urban growth plan as approved by the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, which implements the state’s 1970s era growth management statute, SB 100. The law requires municipalities to project land needed for development 20 years into the future to identify land for an urban area reserve that could be brought within the urban growth boundary, or UGB.
            With the approval of its growth plan in 2016, after several unsuccessful plans were rejected by the state over a decade, Bend agreed to focus on “infill” development of existing land within city limits. Further development extending outward within the UGB footprint is for communities that include higher density, such as multi-family housing, along with single family residences, and land for business to create jobs.

            Altogether the state approval allows Bend to expand its urban growth boundary by approximately 2,400 acres. There could be more than 17,000 homes on half the acreage, with 800 acres for development related to employment facilities.
            But the future of Bend growth is vastly more complicated now as substantial population growth has already compressed the time needed for another look at potential expansion.
            In the nine years since 2010 the city has grown nearly 25% from about 85,000 in 2010 to 106,000 as estimated by the Bureau of Census. The Population Research Center of Portland State University estimates the 2020 population of Deschutes County at 197,000.
            One of the largest tracts of land in decades to be brought within the city would be what has been called the Stevens tract on Bend’s southeast boundary. The formerly state-owned land of 382 acres south of Reed Market Road and east of 27^th Street was bought in 2020 for $22 million by Lands Bend Corp., whose officials include former California Republican Rep. Gary Miller.
            The purchase has initiated discussion of how the property, now called Stevens Ranch, will be developed and the process to bring 370 of the acres into the city through annexation in compliance with the urban growth plan. Another 12 acres already lie within city limits.
            The number of residences including single family homes, affordable housing and multi-family residences, business sites and parks will be initially defined in a master plan submitted by the development group for public comment and city review.
            A bill proposed in the 2021 state legislature would facilitate the city's effort to include the Stevens tract within current boundaries. Some city councilors are pushing for a significant part of the development to include affordable housing.
            Miller and other investors have in recent years been involved in new Bend subdivisions, mostly in east and southeast areas of the city.

Snowpack, water and endangered species - A complicated calculus

            What a difference a month makes!

            The chatter among Mt. Bachelor ski area season pass holders at New Year’s Day celebrations mostly turned around dodging rocks and bare spots on the few runs that had opened this season.

            Then came the storms, which on the Northwest’s premier  9,000-foot plus favorite ski destination dumped more than 70 inches in seven days in a week ending January 13. By February 4, with periodic light and heavy snowstorms, the mid-mountain base topped 100 inches and the ski area's website noted January had seen the most snow on its slopes in 12 years.

            It wasn’t just the winter outdoor enthusiasts who were enjoying the bonanza. Deschutes basin irrigators and conservation groups were on board as the promise of a better snowpack portended an improved outlook for the coming year to improve reservoir levels for growing crops and stream flows for bull trout, steelhead trout and the spotted frog, species listed under the federal Endangered Species Act, or ESA. The potential for sockeye and Chinook salmon to be listed in the future is another factor in the discussion.

            On February 4, three largest reservoirs  in the Upper Deschutes River watershed that store water during the winter months were reporting levels ranging from 52% of  capacity in Crescent Lake; 57% Wickiup; and 82% Crane Prairie.

Oregon snowpack as of Feb 5 2020

            In the Crooked River basin, the largest reservoir, Prineville, which holds water above Bowman Dam, reported 60% of capacity, while Ochoco and Haystack Reservoirs on downstream tributaries in that basin were 47% and 79%, respectively.

            Another important metric is mountain snowpack and its water content in gauging and predicting the potential runoff as snows melt to recharge basin reservoir storage.

            As of February 5 the Natural Resources Conservation Service reported that the snowpack for Deschutes and connected stream basins ranged from 90%-99% of normal, and that readings from Snotel sites showed the snow water equivalent at near 15 inches, nudging the median for 1981 through 2010. And the SWE had jumped ahead of 2019 by more than four inches.           

              Habitat Conservation Plan               

            This “water year,” which began last fall for the Deschutes and Crooked watersheds, comes as irrigators are working to gain approval for a “habitat conservation plan,” ir HCP, an option of the ESA, presented in draft form at a series of public meetings with a comment period that concluded in early December.

            The HCP and a companion Federal Environmental Impact Statement, as required in the process, will now be released with any changes as final documents mapping Central Oregon water use for the next 30 years.

            The HCPs are frequently held out by federal agencies charged with enforcing the ESA  as a way for farmers, utilities, cities, and other stakeholders to obtain an “incidental take permit,” or ITP, as provided under the 1973 law.

         

 
   As an example, an irrigation district might agree to pipe open transmission ditches to conserve water that might be lost through leaking into the ground or evaporation. In return, the conserved water would show enforcement agencies thar the district was making an effort under the HCP to preserve habitat for bull trout , a species listed as threatened in the Deschutes and Crooked basins.

            The timing and volume of water releases from basin dams, in particular Wickiup Dam on the Upper Deschutes, would reflect needs of the spotted frog. Studies have shown the species requires less water to be released earlier in the growing season to protect eggs, and a steadier flow during other times of the water year.

            Also among options to address ESA requirements is the removal of acreage from irrigation, which under laws in Oregon and other states would make that “trust” water available instream for listed species. In most cases a farmer or irrigation district could recover the water in a later year if needed, and would not lose the water right.
                                 Irrigation for 244 square miles

            The regional effort to address ESA and water issues has coalesced through the Deschutes Basin Board of Control a coalition of eight irrigation districts, which together provide water to a total of just under 156,000 acres, an area equal to 244 square miles. Also participating is the City of Prineville, which relies groundwater withdrawal and surface diversions and treated effluent discharge involving the Crooked River basin. 
             An irony of the regional water situation is that the North Unit Irrigation District which potentially provides the resource for 59,000 acres and has the highest value of crops in Central Oregon holds "junior" water rights. As such other smaller districts including Central Oregon Irrigation District have "senior" rights and therefore first claim on all water in the basin in the "first in time, first in line" concept of centuries old western water law based on the "prior appropriation" doctriine.  
            The North Unit water rights are for storage in Wickiup Reservoir while COID's come from Crane Prairie upstream on the Deschutes. Nevertheless all water on the Deschutes including for districts with rights in other reservoirs must flow thorugh Wickiup. The result is a balancing act by dam managers for the districts and Bureau of Reclamation to insure, for example, that COID gets its water, initially held in Crane Prairie, out of Wickiup before North Unit, which suffers in low snowpack and storage years.
            By comparison as of Feb 10, Crane Prairie was 82% full, compared with Wickiup at 59%, putting the district in a much better position that the North Unit.
            Even with the improved snowpack in January and early February this year, North Unit water managers and farmers and ranchers in the district are already concerned at the low Wickiup storage. Several years of up and down runoff that have made it difficult to recharge the reservoir the following water year.

            Other entities involved in the ESA process, but not directly with the incidental take permit, have included the Confederate Tribes of Warm Springs, Trout Unlimited, the Deschutes River Conservancy and WaterWatch among others.

            Key federal agencies which must ultimately sign off on an HCP are the US Department of Fish and Wildlife and National Marine Fisheries Service. USFWS is responsible for actions involving the spotted frog and bull trout while NMFS directs efforts that would affect the ocean migrating steelhead trout.

            Section 7 ESA provisions provide that the federal agencies charged with species decision consult on strategies and actions affecting listed species. In the case of the Deschutes Basin, the federal Bureau of Reclamation, which operates Wickiup Dam, is also required to be a part of the process.

            In the final draft, the HCP and companion FEIS compare four options, one of those taking no action, which has been discounted.

            Among the other three options all would involve increasing fall and winter stream flows on the Deschutes. On the Crooked River the three choices would all boost water releases from Prineville Reservoir storage at increasing levels, similar to the Deschutes options.

            Other measures in the options would establish conservation funds and modify operation and maintenance of all “water facilities” involving flows into the Deschutes and Crooked basins.

            At the heart of the HCP process is regulation of releases from Wickiup, the region’s largest reservoir, through which stored water from Crane Prairie and Crescent reservoirs also flow.

Draft EIS/HCP water flow alternatives

            The “proposed action” as outlined in Alternative 2 would set a target of 100 cfs (cubic foot per second)  minimum fall/winter releases in years 1-5 of the plan; 200 cfs in years 6-10; 300 cfs in years 11-20 and 400 cfs in years 21-30.  

            Each cfs equals roughly 7.5 gallons a second; 450 gallons a minute and 27,000 gallons an hour. Extending that calculation, in 12 hours that flow rate would amount to one acre foot of water, or the amount to cover an acre of land with a foot of water.

Useful links for water and endangered species issues

Fact Sheet of Draft EIS for the Deschutes Basin HCP

https://www.fws.gov/oregonfwo/Documents/DeschutesHCP/deisFR/mtgs/Deschutes%20Fact%20Sheet%20-%20WEB.pdf

Complete DRAFT HCP as of August 2019

https://www.fws.gov/oregonfwo/Documents/DeschutesHCP/deisFR/DBHCP%20Entire%20Document%20August%202019.pdf

A Timeline of the Spotted Frog ESA listing in the Deschutes Basin

https://bendisbetter.blogspot.com/2016/02/spotted-frog-esa-listing-creates.html

Mediation could move controversial apartment project forward

            A proposed apartment complex that has become a symbol of development tensions between Bend’s east and west sides as well as highlighted what some call a NIMBY (not in my backyard) backlash could be moving ahead.

            After an appeal in April to the state Land Use Board of Appeals, two prominent apartment opponents and the Evergreen Housing Development Group of Seattle have agreed in principle to a scaled down project of 141 units on three floors, instead of 170 with a fourth floor.

            The agreement as revealed at a late August public meeting would include 176 parking spaces as in an original proposal that had been approved by City of Bend planning staff in an administrative decision. A “modification of approval” filed with city planners in October noted the square footage of the building area would be reduced from 168,102 to 138,653 square feet, with no change in the footprint.

            Old Mill District developer Bill Smith and some neighbors had argued that the project as originally proposed would be out of scale for the location on Shevlin Hixon Drive overlooking McKay Park and the city’s new whitewater and river floating facility below the Colorado Street Bridge. There were also complaints that it would increase traffic congestion in the neighborhood.

            Evergreen’s proposal was approved after meeting existing city multi-family zoning requirements that are routinely decided at the planning staff level. But facing vocal opponents, the city planning commission then held two hearings before approviing the project with a change to the building height. Smith then appealled to LUBA, which stipulated mediation through the state agency’s proceedings.

            City reords show Evergreen started its pre-application process for the project in March of 2015. The revised proposal is set to go before the city planning commission before year-end.

            Evergreens’s project is working it’s way through city regulatory channels at the same time a new six-story apartment bulding is under construction less than one-half mile away on the former Ray’s supermarket site on the east side of SW Century drive near the Simpson Boulevard roundabout.

            That project, by Eugene-based Forum Westside LLC, is planned to include 200 apartment units over retail space in a five story building. The property was rezoned from general commercial to mixed use urban. As the new OSU-Cascades campus expands new businesses and housing are coming on the market to meet demand and changing the character of some west side areas.

            Together, the two apartment projects, a new hotel and the college’s recently opened dormitory will be among the tallest on Bend’s west side. Larger multi-story apartment complexes have been completed on Bend’s east side, incuding on the southeast corner of Pilot Butte off Highway 20 and to the north of Worthy Brewing on the east side of Highway 20.

            Some neighbors of the Worthy area complex have complained that narrow streets with parking on both sides in a retail and office area nearby have resulted in traffic and safety issues. as drivers avoid the congestion  by diverting through adjacent residential neighborhoods.