That’s the observation of brokers and other real estate professionals, who attribute the phenomenon to streaming services such as the newer Zoom and WebX, and older ones such as Skype. The technology makes it possible to share projects and converse by video with fellow workers and clients.
The influx of new urban area escapees is reported from more pristine and remote locations such as Washington’s Methow Valley and other western mountain towns including Whitefish, MT and similar locations. Although there are no hard statistics, the anecdotal data seems credible.
The urban emigration has also pushed prices up and inventory down in Bend, according to brokers working the Central Oregon market.
Beacon Appraisal, in its October report, noted a summer jump in Bend sales above $700,000, attributing that to the overall rise of median sale prices to $547,000 in September. The number of sales above $700,000 accounted for 24% of the total in June, and 26%, 34% and 31% July, August and September, respectively.
Viewed over a longer period of a rolling 12 months the Bend single family median price from October of 2019 through September of 2020 was $462,000, up 3.82% from the same 12 months that ended in September of 2019 when the media stood at $445,000.
Bend inventory -- consistently in the sellers market category for the past several years -- became even more so through the end of September. There were only 124 single family homes on less than one acre listed according to the Beacon Report. When plugged into the formula for the average of 12 monthly sales, that translated to only 0.60 months of homes typically available for sale. Before reaching a more balanced buyer-seller market the inventory would need to be in the 4-6 month range.
The urban exodus and remote working may continue even as Covid 19 could subside with the advent of several promising vaccines in the pipeline. Further fueling the trend are record low interest rates and well-paid employees of online companies less affected by the virus.
Washington’s Methow Valley is a spectacularly beautiful landscape that begins on the eastern edge of the North Cascades National Park complex and is defined by the flow of the valley’s namesake river that meets the Columbia nearly 100 miles later. Well-heeled Seattle, Portland and even California escapees have arrived and dramatically driven up home prices.
There is little inventory in the Methow, brokers say, creating a buying binge that stresses brokers and their clients as multiple bids are tendered for many properties.
One case in point is a small single bedroom, 0.75 bath cabin on the valley floor six miles from the western-themed town of Winthrop. The 1,012 square foot home on 1.76 acres was listed at $399,000 but sold at $438,000.
The local newspaper, now in its 116th year, recently reported that the heightened appeal of the Methow Valley is unsettling to some long-time residents and brokers, concerned that the feeling of community could be diluted by newcomers.
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| Heading into the Methow |
Simply called “The Methow” by many insiders, the area has long been attractive to vacation homeowners and visitors. In summer they come across the North Cascades highway, sometimes called a route through the American Alps,to camp, hike and bike or stay in small inns or 4-Star lodges. In winter they drive from the south takes longer but the rewards are snowy solitude, the nation’s most extensive groomed cross-country ski trails at 200 kilometers, as well as snowshoeing, helicopter skiing, and more than 100 miles of snowmobile trails.
As interview by the Methow Valley News, 30-year veteran broker Anne Eckmann said many potential buyers had been considering buying property in the valley for “...one, two, 10 years—all with the dream of figuring out how to move here.
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| Above Pearrygin Lake |
“When Covid hit and businesses were required to work offsite, the game was on as to who could make the move fast enough to buy while there were still some houses for sale.”
In
comments reported by the Whitefish, MT based Flathead Beacon, Wendy Brown of the
Northwest Montana Association of Realtors said two trends are emerging.
“People
are really sick and tired of living on top of each other in the big city, and
number two, everybody’s figured out how to work from home...So that’s probably
our biggest driving factor—some of the barriers that kept people from being
here before are no longer barriers.”
In the Northwest, the telecommuting effect will likely last well into 2021 given recent announcements by many companies, including Seattle-based online behemoth Amazon. The company announced in October that many employees will continue to work remotely perhaps nine more months. The decision, and that by other companies, has created a vacuum of customers that the Seattle Downtown Association says has led to the shuttering of 130 retail, restaurant and services businesses. Many urban based companies had already been downsizing their office space footprint, a trend that had begun before the virus hit in the early weeks of 2020. In cities such as tech-heavy Seattle, the commercial market has already seen the impact of major tenants letting lease renewal opportunities lapse.
Amazon announced in mid-September that it would not renew 180,000 square feet of space in downtown Seattle housing 1,000 employees. The company said it would disperse those employees throughout other buildings it leases or owns that can accommodate more than 50,000 of its Puget Sound area workers, most of whom are now working remotely.
Amazon’s decision comes as Boeing appears to be laying plans to shift much of its work on the new Dreamliner 787 plane to more tax and labor cost friendly Charleston, SC, which could leave virtually empty one of the world’s largest buildings in Everett north of Seattle.
The company also dropped a bombshell in early October that it might abandon its 215-acre commercial airplane headquarters complex with 855,000 square feet of office space for more than 1,000 employees. As with Amazon, the company would scatter the employees to other facilities and have many work remotely. Even the Boeing Airplane CEO said he could be an executive dividing time between smaller Seattle offices, the parent company’s Chicago headquarters and various satellite manufacturing plants.
Outside of companies that require huge manufacturing facilities, it’s likely that those with more tech and white collar employees will also be backing off on office space requirements. Some observers believe the commercial space market will be in an extended correction as the trend plays out.
Seattle based Kidder Mathews, one of the West Coast’s largest commercial brokerages, in its 3rd Quarter 2020 market report concluded that while, “....the fundamentals of the regional office market are expected to be volatile, the region appears to be positioned to ride out the storm, but time will tell.”
