Wednesday, November 16, 2022

A market in flux. Looking for the inflection point and direction

             A widely followed report on the Bend and Central Oregon real estate market through the 12 months ending October 31 is out.
           
And…drum roll…parsing the statistics leads to no observable dramatic changes, albeit there are signs that sales could be reflecting uncertainty over such factors as rising mortgage rates, tenacious but wavering inflation and possibly a recession on the horizon--or maybe not.

           
All told, Bend’s market appears to be faring better than elsewhere in the country including the marjor metro centers of the Northwest, where pricing and sales volumes are beginning to mirror the overarching macro economic challenges. But Central Oregon real estate went south, and fell deeper and later than other areas in the last recession.

           
It may be time to hang on and hold your breath.

           
In the new report from Beacon Appraisal Group, the median price of a Bend single family home on less than an acre that sold in October was $680,000, the first time since January that the price dropped below $700,000 and a 6.2% drop from the month before. The high monthly number for the year was $773,000 in March.

           
Beacon’s statistics are based on the MLS of Central Oregon database.

           
On a rolling median for the past 12 months, the median sold price was $723,500 – 15% ahead of the $631,500 for the same months from 2020 to 2021.

           
In the past 12 months there were a total of 2,177 sales, while at the end of October 327 homes were listed on the MLS of Central Oregon. Averaging the 12 months of sales over the period translates to approximately a two-month inventory of homes on the market.

           
A more balanced market is considered four to six months supply, but the October inventory still represents double available listings compared to the same month of 2021, and substantially above the paultry 0.3 months in January of 2022.

              In Redmond, the second largest regional sub-market, the October median price dropped to $478,000 -  down 9% from $525,000 in September. The 12 months rolling median was 21% above the same months from 2020 through October 2021.
           
Redmond’s inventory mirrored Bend, at two months, based on 842 sales for the past 12 months and 135 active listings at the end of October.

           
Some indications of current market conditions locally and nationally:

           
-Many economists warn that a recession is coming in 2023, but don’t agree how severe it could be. Others are not so sure and the White House says if one is on the horizon it would be mild.

           
-Mortgage rates for for conventional 30 year terms are now locked firmly above 7% or higher. That’s the highest in two decades and eclipses the annual average of only 2.96% in 2021. There are signs the Federal Reserve will hike again before year-end but perhaps not the 75 basis points that’s been the norm this year.

           
-The last year the annual rate average topped 7% was 2000, when it was 8.05%, still substantially below the monstrous 16.63% in 1981.
First Amerian Title Bend report


           
-Accelerating rates have created turmoil in the mortgage bond market. Real estate investment trusts (REITS) that are highly leveraged are facing margin calls depleting their cash reserves, as the Fed and major banks leave the market and thereby shrink demand.

           
-Homebuilders are scrambling to adjust production to meet already sagging demand from interest rate and inflation factors. New home prices in Bend are regularly “adjusted” downward and those under construction might raise the prospect of heading to the rental market until prices stabilize.

           
-The two major national residential listing and database services, Zillow and Redfin, are now highlighting through email pushes the continued price drops in the Bend market and larger ones such as Seattle and Portland.

           
-Both Zillow and Redfin have pulled back from their “home flip” strategies to buy homes directly from owners for cash, fix them up and sell at a profit. For Zillow the program drained a reported $800 million plus from company coffers. But that debacle hasn’t stopped copycat companies in Europe from testing the strategy.

           
-Broker open houses – nearly absent in the overheated market – are back in the marketing toolbox, sometimes over entire weekends and during the week for the same properties. The “This one won’t last, act quickly” mindset and multiple offers has faded with sellers offering to cover buyer closing costs, and other incentives.

           
-Locally, the Deschutes County Planning Department reported that permitting activity outside the Bend city limits through September of 2022 declined on a calendar year basis, with a drop of 32.7% in applications for single family homes.

           
Where to from here?

           
The current market fluctuations and uncertainty are likely contributing to both buyer and seller indecision.

           
Homeowners already in place with low mortgage rates are more inclined to stay put and wait out market direction, perhaps willing to absorb some decline in prices until the future is more clear.

           
In turn this further constricts inventory and props up prices, making purchases by prospective buyers facing high interest rates even less accessible.

           
Although prices in many areas of the country, and in Bend and Central Oregon, are falling, with the substantial runup in value over the past two years it’s an open question when we’ll see a market more in balance.

           
The question is what inflection point in a mix of various factors will reveal a guide to the future?

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Bend facing land use challenges...Residents restless for action

            Hello Bend city government. Are you listening?”
            That is the admittedly tongue in cheek question that may be on the minds of many Bend residents as the city faces challenging issues of a growing homeless population and escalating housing costs while grasping for elusive solutions.
            This dilemma is recently illustrated with two projects under review by city planners, one a proposed mixed use development in a thus far all residential neighborhood, and the other to revise the code regulating controversial short term rentals, or STRs.
            In public comments on planning applications for both projects, the frustration of residents has boiled over.
            The milieu has revealed a culture in which city staff appears reticent to respond proactively to city code issues, unless having “direction,” from a council experiencing turnover in members and leadership.
            In the past year, the elected mayor and two city councilors have resigned, and the two recent council replacements have said they don’t intend to run for election in November.
            One current councilor is running for mayor against a former council member who is vowing to improve constituent communication by listening to the city’s network of volunteer neighborhood associations.
            A look at the proposed development on a lot zoned commercial convenience at the intersection of Mt. Washington Drive and NW Awbrey Road highlights a split between the council’s push for more multi-family and “middle housing,” and the character of an existing neighborhood.
            Maybe more significant, it shows how investors and developers are working to bend current development rules to fit a narrative of more needed housing density, while raising the alleged NIMBY (not in my backyard) and YIMBY (yes in my backyard) tension.
            In the past two years the project, dubbed Compass Corner, has been proposed, withdrawn, then put on hold twice -- most recently after a failure to comply with development code provisions was revealed.

The opposition to Compass Corner

            The latest delays came after more than 70% of the nearly 300 residents commenting on the project objected to it in some form—some urging that it not be considered at all, and others recommending substantial changes.
            The development team took their message to local media, resulting in one report that for and against comments were more evenly divided, and emphasizing the ostensible NIMBY – YIMBY rift over increasing housing density.
            But several detailed analyses by some of those commenting pointed city planning officials to a major flaw that had been used to justify an additional fourth floor. They argued that the ground floor lacked sufficient commercial area, that was instead taken up by substantial space for building systems such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning and the elevator shaft.
            The city planner then informed the development team of the problem, prompting a request to delay the application for slightly more than a month.
            Some observers have asked why the city had not recognized the problem earlier, perhaps saving many hours of time put in by the staff, the neighborhood association which tracked the proposal and even work of the development team.
            Instead of waiting to see what various plans the developers were proposing, couldn’t the city staff have guided the process with neighbors and the developer was a question asked.

Short Term Rentals due for code changes

            In another planning application process, city staff responded to a discussion by the city council which turned on potential ways the code provisions for short term rentals might be revised to encourage more long term rental housing.
            To that end the city STR program manager and staff conducted a survey of fewer 752 STR permit holders – under 70% of the more than 1,000. Only 44% responded. Out of that number of open ended responses, staff attempted to determine how many would consider renting long term.
            The key question asked:
            “What types of incentives would encourage you to rent to a long-term tenant (30 days or more)?
            A review of the scattered responses showed fewer than a dozen of the 300 answering that question mentioned removal of a requirement that there be a single STR rental within a 12 month period.
            Other responses cited the need for a subsidy to offset loss of higher revenue from STR rentals and changes in landlord-tenant laws regarding evicting problem tenants, among other measures that they would favor.
            Yet, with the scant comments related to removing the once in 12 months requirement, the city staff recommended a code change to accomplish that.
            A staff presentation to the Bend planning commission noted that the change would mesh with the city council’s objective to: “Reduce regulatory barriers for housing development, with an emphasis on incentivizing rent and price restricted affordable housing, middle income housing, and housing that serves vulnerable community members.”
            Another code change presented by the staff, at direction of the council, was to extend the required separation between STRs from 250 to 500 feet. In effect,  if a Type II “whole house” permit for unlimited nightly rentals were terminated, it could not be renewed if another existing Type II permit were within 500 feet.
            The planning commission went a step further and amended by a 3-2 vote September 12  for the proposed code to include any "Vacation Nightly Rental" in buffer calculation. These permits, issued before the current code effective date of April 15, 2015, were grandfathered and would not terminate if a property is sold.
            The STR section of the city development code emerged after complaints of noise, parking impacts and other problems with nightly rentals in several neighborhoods, as well as incursion of STRs into other newer and established areas of single family homes.
            A city staff presentation on the proposed code changes estimated that eligibility for new Type II STRs would be reduced from 54% of city housing areas to 34% with the new 500 foot buffer provision.


STR map if 500 ft buffer

            Written comments directed at the revisions were split between most full time residents in single family homes favoring the extended buffer as a way to reduce STRs. But owners of the  “whole house” night rentals were vigorously opposed.
            Among the objections, some STR owners pleaded that local real estate brokers had told them the value of a home with a permit could increase by $40,000 to $100,000 over comparable properties. The owners said their purchase was for an income producing investment that would be jeopardized if they decided to sell, noting the increased buffer could prevent the property’s continued use as an STR.
    Bend has been on the radar as attractive for nightly rental investors. In 2020 a Bay Area based website concluded that, "All in all, Bend is one of the best markets for Airbnb on the West Coast...a must-invest for out-of-state and Oregon Airbnb hosts."
            Objecting to the proposed code changes, a Los Angeles based STR investor wrote that...”…people like me really would appreciate our STRs staying eligible in the case of a sell—we have banked on it.”            Another out of town investor wrote he had, “….factored in the value an STR permit..” adds to property values.
            “Our realtor indicated that it can be upwards of $40k in desirable neighborhoods. We used this information when making our offer and knowingly paid over-asking because of this value boost for an STR-eligible property."
            Noting the code change would wipe out equity in his investment, the owner added:
            “Speaking for myself, this means we will need to hold onto our property longer than originally planned in order to make up for this lost money.”
            The idea of STR-permitted properties as lucrative investments was supported in code change comments by the political committee of the Central Oregon Association of Realtors.
            Voicing opposition to the extended 500 foot distance between STRs, the Realtors wrote that, “…the ability to periodically rent a home is an important, and increasingly common, criterion for home buyers within the City.”
           The Bend city council  will have a first reading and public hearing on the measures at an October 5 session.
            The following evening after the planning commission action, STRs were prominently on the agenda of the Neighborhood Leadership Alliance. It includes representatives of neighborhood associations throughout the city which are intended to act as sounding boards for government leaders.
            That discussion leaned to the modest effect the code change to reduce the once in 12 months nightly rental requirement would have on increasing long term rentals. Although the code presentation memo by staff cited city council goals to create workforce housing, the lead staff planner conceded that the change was not intended to improve housing affordability but could increase overall inventory.

Original STR Regulations Aimed to protect neighborhood integrity

             A city staff attorney at the Alliance meeting explained that the original STR code created in 2015 was not focused on housing affordability.
            Instead, “…the focus then was on neighborhoods, preserving the good things ….it was about neighborhood integrity, character, balancing all of these things. The regulatory structure was created around that.”
            With the STR buffer extension,the city predicts there will be fewer new Type II limited nightly rental permits as existing ones are terminated at the time of sale if there are others within 500 feet.
            But in the background are other two other issues of the STR code that many residents have urged the city to address.
            One is the so-called “transfer loophole.”
            As written in 2015, the code specifically states that STR permits “do not run with the land,” and therefore cannot be transferred. However, a so-called “transfer loophole” allows a property seller with a STR permit to void it, then apply on behalf of a buyer even before the sale closes.
            This is a frequent tactic that results in property buyers being enticed by real estate brokers with the prospect of acquiring a property with a permit.
            A number of comments regarding the newly proposed code changes urged the city to also look at closing the transfer loophole. This would further eliminate some STRs even if they were in locations at 500 feet or more from another at the time of sale.
            Critics of the existing STR provisions say the city should do more to thwart permit applicants from violating the covenants, conditions and restrictions, CCRs, of neighborhoods. But the city has repeatedly said it cannot interfere with “private contracts,” a position that most legal analysis supports.
            However, some have argued that a current stipulation that STR applicants acknowledge by signature they have read neighborhood CCRs should be strengthened to “affirm” a permit would not be a violation. Many CCRs prohibit rentals of fewer than 30 days in single family neighborhoods.
            Even so, a city attorney has said he would like to put more distance between the city and any relationship to CCRs by merely “suggesting” that an applicant read them.
            That position has been taken in the city planning staff responses to those commenting on both the Compass Corner apartment project off NW Awbrey Road and the proposed STR code changes.
            In effect, the only alternative is for either a Homeowners Association, or HOA, or lacking the latter, an individual property owner to take legal action to enforce the CCRs.

PREVIOUS POSTS ON SHORT TERM RENTALS

Tourism and neighborhood nightly rentals: Bend struggles with the issues

 Get out those CCRs- renewed focus on short term rentals and multi-family units

Tuesday, August 16, 2022

Reading Mixed Signals on the Economy and Real Estate

           Recession on the horizon, or not; inverted yield curve; flattened yield curve; blockbuster job numbers; GDP dropping, CPI escalating etc. etc.
           
The prognosticator economists trying to wrap their heads around “the metrics,” are proving one trope attributed to playright George Bernard Shaw - 

           
“If all the economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion.”

           
To be fair, the signals, as they’re called, that often portend shifts in the economy are at the very least a mixed bag.

           
Take the high level of employment, many jobs available and still others going wanting for applicants. And higher wages.
        But even with the jobs bounty and attractive wages, productivity per employee is down. And those wages are being cancelled out in part by inflation, especially in essentials such as fuel and food.
How this impacts real estate nationally, and locally in Central Oregon, in the longer term is, as that acronym goes, TBD.
           
As previously reported in early June, there were already signs of a cooling, albeit slight, of the Bend residential real estate market.
         

Bend real estate changes: crash, correction or moderation?

            That post noted a rise in price reductions, (with euphemisms such as “improved price,”) of listed single family homes, as well as more open houses. Such changes were nearly absent in the heated environment of multiple offers and bidding wars of 2021.
            Now, a report through the first seven months of 2022, well into the traditionally more active warmer “selling season,” gives a broader view of the year and its comparison with 2021.
          The Beacon Appraisal Group reports for the first seven months of 2022 through July show that median Bend single family home prices began to level off while inventory continued to edge upward.
            For the month of July, the median sale price of a single family home on less thatn one acre dropped to $722,000 from $740,000 in June, and was off from the yearly high of $773,000.



            On a rolling 12 month basis, the median from August 1 of 2021 through July 31 of 2022 was $702,500. That represented a rise of  $125,000, or 22%  from the same 12 month period of 2021 to 2022, when the median was $577,500.
            There were 2313 sales for the 12 months beginning August of 2021 and 397 active listings at the end of July this year. Nearly half, 1,105, sales were n the $450,000 to $650,000 range. There were 182 sales above $1 million.
            Since the close of April this year inventory as calculated by averaging 12

Top: a timid price drop; Bottom, more serious

month sales has crept up from 1.0 in April to 1.3 in May, 1.9 in June and 2.0 months at the end of July. Total July sales dropped to 175 in Bend from the high of 218 for the year in May.
            In Redmond, Central Oregon’s 2nd largest market segment, the median monthly sale price was $491,500, up $115,000, or 31%, from the $376,000 median for the previous 12 month period. July’s median was $505,000, a drop from $530,000 in June and below the single month high for the period of $538,000 in April.
            Redmond recorded 943 sales over the 12 months and had inventory of 1.7 month at the end of July, up from 1.2 months in June.
            Even with a subtle change,none of the numbers contained the the Beacon Report, based on the MLS of Central Oregon database, provide much encouragement for alleviating the region’s housing affordability crunch for many wage earners.
            State of Oregon regional economist Damon Runberg was quoted in a report by KTVZ Channel 21 that Bend is one of the least affordable areas of the state.
            He pointed out that Deschutes County’s average monthly wage of about $4,940 per month translates to a family spending nearly 60% of their income on housing based on a 30-year mortgage at 5.5% for an averaged priced home in the mid $700,000s.
            On the national level, the National Association of Homebuilders reported its member survey showed about 19% of builders are cutting prices in August, up from only 13% in July.
            A Redfin report said sales of 16% of existing homes that went into contract in July fell through. And nationally sales of existing homes fell 6% from June to July, and were 20% below the same month of 2021.
    
        An economist for Realtor.com, the listing site for the National Association of Realtors, raised the possibility of a market shift not seen in several years.“The housing market is resetting in a buyer-friendly direction,” Danielle Hale wrote on August 12.
            But given the continuing scant inventory in Bend and Redmond, still 2 months below the accepted 4-6 months of a balanced market, Central Oregon buyers might wait a while to really feel a more "friendly" trend.