Thursday, May 27, 2021

Tourism and neighborhood nightly rentals: Bend struggles with the issues

           You’ve been enjoying your home in an established Bend neighborhood, with very little traffic and minimal noise except for kids playing and the intermittment buzz of mowers and lawn edgers.
            You’re happy you researched the neighborhood before buying here.
            Then you get a notice from the city. The new owners of the home next to you or maybe a few doors away plans to make their property a nightly rental for visitors. The application for a short term rental, or STR, has been filed. Now the city is giving you a two-week window to weigh in on this.
            Your first reaction is, “Can they really do this? I recall that there was something in the documents when we bought the house that said only rentals of more than 30 days are allowed.”
            You dig out your closing papers from years back. There it is, clearly stated in the Convenants, Conditions and Restrictions, or CCRs: There under section 4.14 Transient Rental Use. “No owner or owners of any unit within (Happy Acres – a pseudonym) subdivision shall be permitted to rent their unit to any person or person for transient occupancy which shall be for a period of 30 days or less.”
            So, shouldn’t that solve the issue for this application?  The city wouldn’t allow this if it goes against the CCRs, you think. Well, not exactly. And the relationship of CCRs to Bend's processing of nightly rentals has become a flashpoint in established single family neighborhoods.
            As Bend becomes ever more popular with tourists – boosted by pentup pandemic travel demand – more residential property owners are seeing a potential revenue stream in nightly rentals. And among these are out-of-area and out-of-state buyers seeing an opportunity to stake out a place in Bend.

            In 2020, a Bay Area website that focuses on Airbnb posted an article titled, "Should you invest in Airbnb in Bend in 2020?"
            The conclusion, after discussing all the the upside of property appreciation and rental revenue, "All in all, Bend is one of the best markets for Airbnb on the West Coast....a must-invest for out-of-state and Oregon Airbnb hosts."
A balloon festival in Bend


            Local opinion is mixed. Facing an outcry from some residents beseiged by noisy parties and parking issues arising from tourist rentals, the city responded a few years ago with a series of public meetings, eventualy distilling the results into a new section of the development code.

Several types of short term rentals

            The new code provisions distinguish STR permits by several categories.
            A Type III permit applies to a development that clusters nightly rentals in areas outside of residential single family zoning.
           One Type I, permit allows a property owner to have “infrequent” nightly rentals of no more than 30 nights. Another Type I permit limits rentals to fewer than 30 consecutive nights and two rooms, without a kitchen, while the owner occupies the dwelling. These are allowed in single family zoned neighborhoods.
            Perhaps the most controversial STR is a Type II that allows for a “whole house” rental of unlimited days and nights each year in typical single family residential neighborhoods.
In an effort to mitigate having multiple nightly rentals on a single street, the code requires a distance of 250 feet separating Type II STRs.
            The permit mandates a certain number of offstreet parking spaces, limits guests according ot the number of rooms, requires the owner to post regulations and to provide 24-hour contact information for neighbors to complain about noise or other problems. STR owners must also pay fees of slightly over $2,000 for a permit and $275 each year to renew an operating license, as well as an 10.4% lodging tax.
            However, the city will not act on neighbor complaints until they reach the level of a code violation related to the permit, such as excess parking and too many guests in a STR.
            In both Type I and Type II permits the city merely requires property owners to verify by signature that they have read their neighborhood CCRs as applicable to nightly rentals. The applicants do not have to affirm the nightly rental would not violate the CCRs.
           
Therein is the crux of a festering issue that has divided Bend neighborhoods.            With the city’s hands-off position, residents must act through homeowner associations or independently to enforce CCRs.

Mirror Pond on the Deschute River in Bend


            In many older, mature neighborhoods with long-time homeowners the developer may have ended involvement in the community. There may be no homeowner association. And most residents may have forgotten the CCRs, absent major problems in the neighborhood.
            However, CCRs typically remain valid for 30 years, with automatic 10-year extensions unless a percentage of homeowners vote to terminate them.
            Enforcing a CCR provision, such as limitation of nightly rentals, could well require legal action. The situation in turn may result with some homeowners claiming the STR is a property right and others arguing it destroys the integrity of the neighborhood.
            Another issue gaining atttention is a section of the STR code that prohibits transfers of permits issued after April 15, 2015 at the time of a property sale. Although specifically stating a permit “does not run with the land,” a loophole allows an existing permit holder to void it, and apply for a new permit on behalf of a buyer before a property sells.
            This circumvention of the no-transfer provision creates an attractive incentive for sellers and real estate brokers to entice buyers with the promise of acquiring an immediate income producing property.

Short Term Rentals, CCRs and legal action 

 
            A couple of recent STR applications—one that was withdrawn and another that went through and perhaps heading for litigation—are illustrations of how CCRs have become part of the nightly rental discussion.
            As reported by The Source weekly, residents of the Tanglewood subdivision of southeast Bend mobilizied to amend their CCRs after a homeowner applied for a STR, perhaps with the intent of making the house more attractive for a buyer.
            The application was withdrawn after the amendment passed with a majority vote, likely with some ill will from the applicant when the property sale fell through. Although the CCR amendment to limit rentals to more 30 days may have blunted the homeowner’s plans, under the current city STR regulations it would not in itself have scotched the permit.
            Another, more complicated STR application has brought into sharper focus the issues of transferring a permit, and the place of CCRs in the equation.

STR types explained


            A homeowner with a Type II whole house permit voided it, then applied to the Community Development department for a new permit on behalf of a prospective buyer – before the property had changed hands.
            Although there was at that time no written authorization for the seller to act for the buyer, the city recognized the application process – and only weeks later had the buyer and seller complete the authorization.
            More than a dozen neighbors in that subdivision and nearby objected, citing prior noise, parking and traffic problems experienced with the property as a STR. But the application met city offstreet parking and other requirements and the permit was approved. Later the property buyer applied for and was given an operating license as needed to rent the property nightly.
            Many of the neighbors objecting to the new permit cited the previous parking and noise problems, none of which the city considers in review an application. Instead the regulation puts the onus for complaints with neighbors to contact the STR owner-operator.
            In this case, however, several objections were raised as to the loophole allowing transfer of the permit, and violation of CCRs that don’t allow rentals of fewer than 30 days.
            Now a neighbor immediately adjacent to the STR property has decided the only option is to consult an attorney, who has tactfully informed the new owners by letter that the CCRs prohibit nightly rentals.
            For now, it’s a wait and see strategy for the neighbor, with advice from the attorney that the first nightly rental – none as yet – could trigger action to prevent further rentals.
            Meanwhile other neighbors are raising problems with the city regarding the STR permit transfer loophole and ineffective language addressing whether a STR would violate the neighborhood CCRs.
            In a reply, a top city official wrote regarding the transfer loophole that, “This is a known issue that we have documented and staff can be ready to recommend changes to the Development Code when/if Council desires to make changes to the STR portion...”
            As to the tightening permit language related to CCRs, the official noted the, “...idea to have STR permit applicants acknowledge that they have read and understand their CCRs as well as that the CCRs are not violated by the STR Permit application sounds reasonable.”

Saturday, May 22, 2021

Another drought season in the works: Low snowpack and reservoirs

             The headgates of irrigation ditches in Central Oregon have been open for only a few weeks. But the seasonal availability of adequate water for agricultural use is already in doubt for several irrigation districts, with another low snowpack and water storage deficit in several reservoirs.
            In its May 1 report, the Natural Resources Conservation Service, a division of the federal Department of Agriculture, noted that the Upper Deschutes and Crooked River basins snowpack was 64% of normal. This represented a precipitous drop in a single month from April 1, when the snowpack was 108% of normal.
            As of May 20, basin reservoir storage recorded by the Bureau of Reclamation ranged from a low of 23% full at Ochoco Reservoir to 87% at Crane Prairie. Wickiup Reservoir, which impounds water for the region’s largest cash crop acreage served by the North Unit district, was only 39% full.

            Wickiup’s 77,865 acre feet stored as of May 20 was 54% below average and 30% under the same date in 2020, which was also a dry year.
            Prineville Reservoir, which holds water behind Bowman Dam in the Crooked River Basin was the lowest since 1974, according to a report from the Bureau of Reclamation’s Bend field office. The inflows as of the second week of May were at 37% of normal.
            Several counties, including Jefferson north of Bend and Deschutes County, have already pleaded for the Governor to declare a drought emergency. Others include Klamath – long a flashpoint for the debate involving endangered fish and water for crops – along with Lake, Baker, Douglas, Gilliam, Morrow, Umatilla and Wheeler.
    The Central Oregon Irrigation District has issued a drought notice to its members warning that many may not have their full allocation of water, noting that, "Deschutes County is experiencing it's driest spring in 127 years... We recommend you being planning now for potential water shortages this summer."
    In its capacity as the umbrella group representing basin irrigators, conservation groups and other stakeholder, the Deschutes Basin Board of Control has also asked for a drought declaration for the region.

     Much like 2020, this year at a point in mid-winter held hope that the water deficit might not be as dire, with a burst of mid-winter storms pushing the snowpack to better levels. In early February 2020, Mt. Bachelor ski area reported its base at the highest level in 12 years.
      But the optimism was short-lived, then as with this year, when early runoff did little to recharge reservoirs that have suffered from low levels for several years running.

            The listing of the Oregon spotted frog under the federal Endangered Species Act has further complicated the water equation in Central Oregon.
            Various stakeholders in the Deschutes Basin, including environmental groups, have signed on to a “habitat conservation plan” that adjusts water releases from Wickiup Reservoir to provide more flows at certain times. This includes winter releases, which draw down storage, and early spring flow reductions that occur at the start of the crop growing cycle.
            The overall impact of the frog’s ESA listing on agriculture may take time to fully assess. But coupled with impending drought conditions, balancing water use for the species and agriculture will be a challenge well into the future.

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Snowpack, water and endangered species - A complicated calculus


Fact Sheet of Draft EIS for the Deschutes Basin HCP

Complete DRAFT HCP as of August 2019

A Timeline of the Spotted Frog ESA listing in the Deschutes Basin

 

 

Friday, May 14, 2021

Where to now: Interest rates, inflation and the housing market?

             As the housing market explodes with demand and tight inventory, the natural question arises of whether this is another housing bubble like the one that popped in the “Great Recession.”
           
Some of the supply and demand factors are similar although inventory during the earlier pre-recession pricing boom generally remained higher than today in most areas of the country, including Bend and the rest of Central Oregon.
            Another key difference is that lax lending standards have largely disappeared with many buyers in today’s market coming in with all cash or solid loan prequalifications.
            Interest rates may be playing a larger role in today’s housing trends than in the previous boom and bust cycle.
            In the runup to the 2008 housing market peak and collapse, 30-year fixed rate mortgage interest rates averaged 6.34% in 2007 and 6.03% in 2008 according to charts of the federal FreddieMac database. Over the decade ending in 2020 rates fluctuated in a range from mid to higher 3% to 4%.
            As of May 13 this year the Bankrate benchmark survey of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders showed the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 3.050% with an APR of 3.270%
            On May  12 the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 600 points and the S&P 500 Index dropped a proportionate percentage, before rebounding to recover about two-thirds of the losses by the next day’s market close.
            Much of the drop was attributed to a rise of 0.8% in the April Consumer Price Index, the most in a single reporting period for more than a decade and 4.2% above April 2020. That raised concerns of rising inflation with government stimulus spending and a recovering economy. There’s apprehension this could in turn force the Federal Reserve to back away from its prolonged pattern of “quantitative easing,” or lower interest rates.
            However, barring a major shift in the Fed policy it doesn’t appear likely that gradual increases to tweak inflation fears would significantly blunt the continuing demand for housing. One analysis is that the largest segment of the CPI price increases was used cars and trucks, spurred by computer chip scarcity holding back new car sales.
            Another factor, the thinking goes, is that the dramatic upswing in new housing prices is-- besides pandemic demand--also due to pandemic related timber harvest and mill operation reductions pushing lumber prices to new levels.
            A local and regional snapshot is available from statistics provided by Beacon Appraisal, and derived from the MLS of Central Oregon database.

            At the March 31 end of the first quarter of 2021, only 61 single family homes on less than an acre were listed in all of Bend and outlying areas of Tumalo to the north and Alfalfa on the eastern edge. That translates to less than 0.30 months inventory.
            Another way of parsing the inventory is to translate the low inventory of listings to the pace of sales as determined by the time a home is on the market. Consider that most homes in the Bend area have gone from listing to pending sales in barely four days for the past four months.
            At the end of the Q1 2021, the median price for a single family home on less than an acre in Bend that sold in March was $590,000, more than 28% higher than the same month of 2021.
            For the period from March of 2018 through May of 2020 monthly median prices had held in a range from a low of $415,000 in May of 2018 to a high of $475,000 in August of 2019.
            Then came what might be logically called the “pandemic inflection point,” as the May 2020 median price of $445,000 jumped to $529,000 the next month, hit $560,000 in October, dipped to $524,000 in December and rose to $580,000 in January this year.
            When calculated over a 12-month period ending in March, the median price was $535,000, an increase of 16% over the $460,000 median for the 12-months ending in March of 2020. A comparison of median prices for the first quarters of 2020 and 2021 shows a 26% increase from $460,000 to $580,000.
            For April this year the Bend median hit $590,000 according to statistics in the Beacon Appraisal report. In emailed comments, Beacon’s Donnie Montagner noted that 40 of the 236 Bend sales in April closed at $1 million or higher, or 17% of the total. That compared with April 2020 with only 10 sales over $1 million out of 146 closings, or 7%.
            “After reviewing the data several times, I noticed the median was heavily influenced by the number of sales in the 1Mill+range, which had increased significantly," Montagner wrote.
            Nevertheless, he explained, “While sales in the (million plus) range have an impact on the median, the overall SFR (single family residential) price trend in Bend is significantly trending upwards when compared to the past several years.”
            The housing demand has veteran brokers competing for scant inventory. After capturing a listing the frenzy usually begins with multiple offers, often above the listed price. That in turn has given rise to “offer review days,” often only several days after a home is posted on the MLS. In many cases those offers are in hand even before the listing is known to the general public.
            More  often than not the offers are all cash, with no financing contingency. And even with the financing contingency the offer will likely have to
substantially top others to even be in the running.
            Another trend has been a decrease in contingencies for inspections – with some buyers willing to take the risk that a problem may require additional investment, rather than be left in the cold in a hot market.
            Driving the housing market for at least the near-term could the delicate balance of consumer response to current low interest rates against potential higher rates resulting from rising inflation—along with uncertainty over the choppy economy as it emerges from a tough stretch.