It’s a challenge digging into Bend
real estate market numbers to unearth any breakout trend from most recent
months and longer.
Median sales prices for single
family homes on less than an acre continued to rise, although at a pace much
less than the “pandemic era” that ran from early 2020 into 2022.
For the 12 months from May 1, 2023
through April 30, 2024 the median sale price was $738,500, or 6.95% more than
the same period of 2022-2023. During the most recent 12 months, closing prices
ranged from a monthly low of $682,000 in February of this year to $800,000 in
July of 2023.
Bend’s inventory of available continues to stay on the seller’s side of
the market, with only a two month supply for the 12 months ending April 30 as
calculated by averaging sales for that period.
In February of this year nearly 25% of single family sales topped $1 million. That was also noted in the Beacon Report for April, albeit the share had declined to 20%. And for the 12 months ending in April the 404 sales at more than $1 million accounted for more than 25% of the total 1,591 closed. The full Beacon Report.
The upward price trend in both median prices and sales above $1 million only serve to point out Bend’s growing housing affordability problem for a workforce whose median household family income is about $88,000 according to 2021 US Census statistics.
When plugged into Zillow’s home affordability calculator, that would enable a household with the median income to purchase a home for about $508,000. In the 12 months ending April 30 there were only 215 sales under $550,000, or 13.5%. And as of April 30 only 16 of the 310 active listings were priced under that amount.
Another market segment getting attention in Central Oregon is apartments, where an active construction trend is creating many newer units and driving the vacacy rate to 7.87% according to data from leading brokerage Compass Commercial. That is second only to the Boise market with 10.6% vacancy rate.
Bend/Central Oregon’s average rental rate tops all of the nine cities in the Compass report at $1,740, leading Portland at $1,619 and Boise at $1,537 per month.
The report also includes numbers for Eugene and Salem as well as the Richland area of south central Washigton along the Columbia River.
An earlier report by Compass at year-end 2023 noted that thousands of new apartment units would be completed in the following two years. At the end of Q1 this year Compass estimated about 500 apartments were available for rent.
One key question raised by the construction boom is whether the increasing glut of new units will dampen demand and force rental rates downward. Already multi-family owners are offering such incentives as free months of rent and move-in credits.
Also noted in the rental sphere is an increasing number of permitted short term rentals being listed for sale. This might be partially attributed to owners anticipating several larger projects being brought to market that will have no restrictions on the number of short term rentals, or conversion from rental unts to condominiums.
Two of these new projects, Jackstraw and Everpine, in the area between the Old Mill District and downtown core, have together received more than $18 million in 10-year tax breaks from the city. Facing a backlash, the City Council has paused further tax breaks for new projects to review the program.
The prospect of the city subsidizing through tax incentives projects that developers could sell at market rates would likely do little to ease the city’s housing affordability issues.
One argument has been made that the tax breaks might be tied to requirements that multi-family projects permitted as “residential units” in planning applications be restricted to rental units for a defined number of years before conversion to condos or townhomes. This would require an amendment to the Bend Development Code.
