Saturday, January 31, 2015

Is this really Winter? Mild temperatures and low snowpack thus far



            No one would call Bend and Central Oregon a “dry” area in the libation sense with the region’s more than two dozen breweries, a few distilleries and a national reputation as a “beer town.”  But this year another dryness is raising concern.
            More than in many recent years the coming Spring and Summer regional snowpack high in the Cascades, and the ensuing seasonal runoff to creeks and rivers, will be in the policy spotlight.
            The concern is easy to explain. At the end of December 2014 the higher elevations snowpack in the Central Oregon Cascades was running above normal. Then came January, with the Bend area enjoying Spring-like conditions for most of the month following a frigid period of zero temperatures and snow just before the New Year.
            Balmy temperatures by mid-month, some nearly reaching 70, resulted in green shoots emerging under normally dormant perennials. Golf course parking lots filled up and usually popular cross-country ski areas on the way to Mt. Bachelor were essentially not skiiable.
            “The mountain” as locals refer to Bachelor has some of the best conditions on the West Coast, although the bar has been set lower. As of January’s close the snow base was running about half of a usual winter, after a decent seasonal start that allowed skiers to hit the slopes before Thanksgiving.
            The latest SnoTel report from the US Natural Resources Conservation Service notes that the water content of the snowpack in the Upper and Lower Deschutes and Crooked River Basins of Central Oregon is less than 50% of normal. And the snowpack itself as measured in inches was 28% as of January 29.
            Taking as an example the SnoTel reading at Three Creeks Meadow, an elevation of nearly  5,700 feet, the reading as of January 29 was 3.9 inches of snow water equivalent, or only 32% of the median for that date.
            Even less than the basin 28% of normal on the date was the reading at the instrument on McKenzie Pass, at  4,770 feet, where the the water content was only 24% of normal.
            Even more drastic is the report of snowpacks in the Klamath Basin of only 17% of normal and 18% in the Rogue-Umpqua. The Willamette Valley report was 28% of normal.
            The Klamath Basin has in most recent years been the focus of disputes between irrigators, federal agencies and tribal interests over balancing the allocation of water for irrigation and to support endangered fish populations.
            In Bend environmental groups have tried to halt the city’s expansion of the Bridge Creek water project, arguing that surface withdrawals from the Tumalo Creek watershed will adversely affect springs and potentially harm fish. In approving the project, which runs across Forest Service land, the opponents say the federal agency did not give adequate consideration to climate change.
            Central Oregon and the Cascades often catch up after lower early season snowpacks with heavier snowfalls in late Winter. But various agencies and stakeholders, including irrigators, are nervously watching weather forecasts given the unusual deficit thus far.
             There's that old axiom of the West that goes, roughly, "Whiskey (or beer for that matter) is for drinking and water for fighting over." Any tussles over the precious resource has been in the courts to date, but the issues could top the discussion agenda this Spring and Summer.




Reservoir levels as of Jan 29 2015





Three Creeks Meadow SNOTEL graph