THE REAR VIEW MIRROR……FROM PAST ISSUES
“2005: What a year! Is this market pace sustainable? Scarcity squeezes sales numbers in some categories
The numbers are in, and 2005 was another boom year in Central Oregon real estate. For 2006 there are no obvious signals that the region will experience a slump, much less a bursting bubble, but there are subtle changes taking place.”
“What a change...2007 turns 2004-05 into a fading memory. Is this market pace sustainable?
Such was the observation in early 2006. Now we have the answer—the pace was NOT sustainable. And those changes over two years have become much less subtle.”
An uncertain 2009...for real estate and the overall economy.
Let’s be realistic. Anyone who dares to predict the future of real estate in early 2009 is either foolish or clairvoyant…. Now the old axiom that all real estate is local may still hold true. But nearly everything local is having a tough time.”
Let’s be realistic. Anyone who dares to predict the future of real estate in early 2009 is either foolish or clairvoyant…. Now the old axiom that all real estate is local may still hold true. But nearly everything local is having a tough time.”
Welcome to 2010—a year we can hope will only improve over 2009 in many business sectors. After all, the recession is over according to some economists and White House advisors. Didn’t you get the memo?Although “technically” the recession may be winding down, it will likely be some time before the message gets through to Central Oregon’s real estate market.
As elsewhere in the nation, some measures such as the $8,000 tax credit for new home buyers and $6,500 (with more restrictions) for existing homeowners have had some positive effects on the market. However, the region continues to grapple with the steady stream of distressed properties that continue to bring down prices.
And unemployment in Deschutes County , Central Oregon ’s largest, continues to be an economic drag. The county has been at or near the top of Oregon
The Central Oregon home appreciation bubble:
From No. 1 in the nation to nearly the bottom in three years
National economic models assemble the various Central Oregon real estate segments—Bend , Redmond , Sisters, Prineville, LaPine and Madras —into a single metropolitan statistical area (MSA) designated simply as Bend
In mid-2006 the Federal Housing Finance Administration ranked the Bend (MSA) No. 1 in residential home appreciation. By the third quarter of 2009, Bend housing appreciation had slipped to 295 out of 297 MSAs in the federal charts after declining through the third quarter of 2009 (the latest statistics available) by 19.45% .
The FHFA statistics track homes qualifying for conforming loan limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the federal housing financing agencies. For higher cost areas the financing agency limits are $729,500 in early 2010.
Although individually Bend is only one of the cities in the MSA, it accounts for the lion’s share (more than 56% in 2009) of single family sales throughout Central Oregon and is therefore the region’s bellwether. Along with Redmond
A look at the price trends of median single family homes in Bend
2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |
Median price | $192,250 | $226,900 | $279,009 | $352,500 | $345,000 | $289,000 | $212,500 |
% : +/- | ———— | +17.87% | +22.97% | +26.34% | -2.13% | -16.23% | -26.47% |
