Grab the reins and hang on-2019 is around the corner

          Yee haw cowpokes!! Only rodeo bull or bronc riders might appreciate the volatility and machinations of the current stock and real estate markets going into what promises to be an uncertain 2019.

          Rising interest rates. Bulls fighting Bears. Trade wars. Cohen and Pecker flip. Mattis resigns. More to come...Impeachment? Mueller’s poker hand revealed? House investigations?

          Will Trump”s erratic, diversionary and mostly inaccurate tweeting continue? Probably. Or will the House’s incoming political counterbalance coupled with beginning of the 2020 presidential campaign provide some sanity? Not likely.

          The milieu of domestic and international challenges is daunting, with much concern for the potential fallout on what has been a decade long economic recovery.

           As for stocks, the recent dramatic swings up and down are enough to bring shivers to any investor portolio. The Dow Jones average, S&P 500 and other tracking indexes are essentially back at the January starting line for the year.

          But a New York Times report noted that as of Dec. 10 the S&P 500 remained 16% above its level at Trump’s inauguration (remember that biggest crowd ever?).

December 21, 2018

          Yet,  the market was already on an upward climb through the Obama administration. In its first two years starting Jan. 1, 2009 the S&P climbed 51%, and more than 60% from a 800.14 trough brought on by the near economic collapse resulting in large part from failed mortgage backed securities driven by “irrational exuberance.” (and no small measure of greed).

          The current stock malaise dovetails with a softening of the housing market after years of the current upward arc since the “Great Recession.”

          One telling indicator is the Seattle-King County housing market, the Northwest's largest, which for much of recent years was leading the appreciation pack of major metro areas.

          New statistics from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service show the November median price of a single family home in King County was $644,000 compared with $726,000 in May, a drop of 11.3%. That’s edging toward the 14% drop that occurred in the housing collapse beginning at the end of the previous decade.

          At its peak of the past two years the Seattle area market was a frenzy of multiple offers for properties, often with all cash and no inspection or financing contingencies.

          The Seattle Times reports that, even with still-pricey closings, days on the market have extended, inventory is up and sales are slumping as buyers enjoy the luxury of caution to do more research and wait out developing trendlines.

          Narrowing the focus to Bend, Beacon Appraisal’s December report covering October through November 2018 notes a November median single family home price at $433,000, the same as October but up from $425,000 in September.

          The highest monthly median for the past 12 months was $449,000 in June, which topped June of 2017 by $40,000.

          Perhaps a more meaningful gauge of market direction is the 12- month rolling median which at the end of November was $424,000, 7.47% above the $395,000 for the same period of 2017.

          Total sales for the 12 months ending in November were 2,484 with currently active listings of 435, which translates to inventory of two months, the same as for the period through Ocober.

County and Bend proposals have major land use impacts

            Recent separate land use proposals by Deschutes County and the city of Bend promise to make significant changes in development patterns within and just outside city boundaries.          
            Dechutes County is on track to approve potentially large residential lots in what’s being called a “transect” on private land in the county but within Bend’s approved urban growth boundary. The county says it will consider the city’s input as the proposal moves forward.

Property proposed in transect zone

            The land involves parcels of approximately 700 acres on Bend’s northwest edge that extends along Tumalo Creek. Under consideration is allowing more than 180 homes, far less than the nearly 2,000 that would be allowed if brought into the city and zoned residential standard, RS, for standard single family development.

            After several attempts over nearly a decade the city gained approval in 2016 of its Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) plan from the state Department of Land Use and Construction. A key sticking point had been the state’s contention that Bend was not planning adequately for development of “infill” properties already within city boundaries.

            The state approved the plan after Bend scaled back plans to 2,300 acres its original proposal to add nearly 9,000 acres to the urban growth boundary. State law requires municipalities to plan for additional land to accommodate development over 20-year

Defining development zones for a transect

periods.

            Given that the proposed 700 acres, although now within the county, is within Bend’s urban growth boundary it’s likely that at some point it will be brought into the city.

            In the other significant land use issue, the city planning commission has forwarded for full council review a proposed code change that would ease the way for duplex and triplex construction on lots currently zoned residential standard, RS, that now permit only single family homes.

            As approved by the planning commission, duplexes would be allowed on lots of at least 6,000 square feet, and triplexes on those of 9,000 square feet. It would also allow a single family homes to be removed for construction of either duplex or triplexes.

            There would be limitations on the size of the multiple units, requirements for sidewalks and street access, and size standards for driveways and garages.

             In the case of the transect development in the county just outside current city limits, the proposal has gained remarkable support from growth watchdog and environmental groups which often oppose new development.

            The theory of the transect model is to provide a buffer from higher density development and construction on property near to public land, such as parks and forests. One example already underway on Bend west side is the Tree Farm community of 50 planned homes on more than 500 acres in Deschutes county just outside the city. The community also borders the city’s Shevlin Park and federal Forest Service land.

            With the duplex-triplex initiative, advocates say it will accomplish the state-mandated growth goal of higher density on “infill” land and lots while also creating opportunity for more affordable housing as the median price for a Bend single family homes has neared $430,000.  
The proposed code amendment.

           The proposal drew opposition from Central Oregon Land Watch which suggested other measures to create affordable housing be considered, such as increasing construction excise taxes, bonding public and private partnerships, inclusionary zoning and more protections for those renting properties.

            But some residents have expressed concern that building multi-family condos and townhomes in mostly single family neighborhoods could affect property values with increased traffic and parking pressures, as well as change the character of the communities.

            It’s uncertain how requirements in neighborhood convenants, conditions and restrictions, or CCRs, such as those limiting construction to single family homes, would mesh with a code change allowing duplexes and triplexes. One example would be Awbrey Butte, with many lots of a half acre or more and homes that generally sell at more than $600,000 with some considerably more than $1 million.

            In mid-November there were 16 vacant large lots listed for sale in Awbrey Butte, and three of more than 9,000 square feet in the nearby Awbrey Glen golf community.

Mt. Bachelor hopes to open Thanksgiving weekend -- snow or no snow

           

            Faced with the possibility of breaking a long tradition by not opening for Thanksgiving weekend, Mt. Bachelor has come up with a Plan B.

Tuesday morning, Pine Marten Lodge

             Snow or no snow – at least if not enough to ski safely – Bachelor officials have said they’ll have ski and board shops and a restaurant open Saturday and Sunday from 9 am to 4 pm.

            Whether or not a chair will be operating for snow riders will depend on the output of a storm system creeping toward Central Oregon that could possibily dump up to 20 inches as the long holiday weekend begins.

Snow statistics for banner 2012-2013 season

            According to the website J2ski.com, Mt. Bachelor reached a summit snowpack depth high mark of 226 cm (88 inches) in the 2017-2018 season and 457 cm (180 inches) in late April in the bountiful 2016-2017 season.
           Last season's total snowfall was 223 inches while the previous 2016-2017 had 469 inches according to www.onthesnow.com. The worst snow year since the 2008-2009 seasons was 2014-2015 when only 177 inches fell.
            From the 2010-2011 through 2013-2014 seasonal total snowall in inches measured, in consecutive order, 575, 503, 830 and 776, according to onthesnow.com statistics.