Grab the reins and hang on-2019 is around the corner

          Yee haw cowpokes!! Only rodeo bull or bronc riders might appreciate the volatility and machinations of the current stock and real estate markets going into what promises to be an uncertain 2019.

          Rising interest rates. Bulls fighting Bears. Trade wars. Cohen and Pecker flip. Mattis resigns. More to come...Impeachment? Mueller’s poker hand revealed? House investigations?

          Will Trump”s erratic, diversionary and mostly inaccurate tweeting continue? Probably. Or will the House’s incoming political counterbalance coupled with beginning of the 2020 presidential campaign provide some sanity? Not likely.

          The milieu of domestic and international challenges is daunting, with much concern for the potential fallout on what has been a decade long economic recovery.

           As for stocks, the recent dramatic swings up and down are enough to bring shivers to any investor portolio. The Dow Jones average, S&P 500 and other tracking indexes are essentially back at the January starting line for the year.

          But a New York Times report noted that as of Dec. 10 the S&P 500 remained 16% above its level at Trump’s inauguration (remember that biggest crowd ever?).

December 21, 2018

          Yet,  the market was already on an upward climb through the Obama administration. In its first two years starting Jan. 1, 2009 the S&P climbed 51%, and more than 60% from a 800.14 trough brought on by the near economic collapse resulting in large part from failed mortgage backed securities driven by “irrational exuberance.” (and no small measure of greed).

          The current stock malaise dovetails with a softening of the housing market after years of the current upward arc since the “Great Recession.”

          One telling indicator is the Seattle-King County housing market, the Northwest's largest, which for much of recent years was leading the appreciation pack of major metro areas.

          New statistics from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service show the November median price of a single family home in King County was $644,000 compared with $726,000 in May, a drop of 11.3%. That’s edging toward the 14% drop that occurred in the housing collapse beginning at the end of the previous decade.

          At its peak of the past two years the Seattle area market was a frenzy of multiple offers for properties, often with all cash and no inspection or financing contingencies.

          The Seattle Times reports that, even with still-pricey closings, days on the market have extended, inventory is up and sales are slumping as buyers enjoy the luxury of caution to do more research and wait out developing trendlines.

          Narrowing the focus to Bend, Beacon Appraisal’s December report covering October through November 2018 notes a November median single family home price at $433,000, the same as October but up from $425,000 in September.

          The highest monthly median for the past 12 months was $449,000 in June, which topped June of 2017 by $40,000.

          Perhaps a more meaningful gauge of market direction is the 12- month rolling median which at the end of November was $424,000, 7.47% above the $395,000 for the same period of 2017.

          Total sales for the 12 months ending in November were 2,484 with currently active listings of 435, which translates to inventory of two months, the same as for the period through Ocober.