Without
even a peek at statistics anyone asked to offer an opinion of the Bend real
estate market might be comfortable with a seat-of-the-pants observation- prices
are up again.
It
seems to be an ingrained assumption the market that begin to rise from the
ashes 7.5 years ago would continue its climb along with the region’s position
as Oregon’s fastest growing outside of the metropolitan Portland area.
While
some observers like to point to individual monthly median prices as a market
sign, a better measure is the number achieved over consecutive months. Whatever
the approach, there’s no doubt that prices are up and the “new norm” for Bend
housing will be median prices in the low to mid $400,000s barring an imponderable
catastrophe.
For
the month of June the median single family home price in Bend hit an alltime
high of $449,000 according to statistics gleaned by Beacon Appraisal from the
Multiple Listing Service of Oregon’s database.
But
in the first six months of 2018 the median price comes in at $415,000. Even
using the smaller number that’s quite a recovery from $200,000 at year-end 2011—or
a 10.2% annual increase for the 7.5
years since hitting a bottom in the “Great Recession.”. (See chart)
By
another market metric, the Beacon report calculates a three-month inventory of
homes available for sale, derived by averaging the past 12 months of sales and
divided into the currently active listings.
The
inventory had been reported at a steady two months supply from November through
May before the one-month jump. Even so, any market with less than four months
inventory is still considered “tight” and to favor sellers.
Redmond also robust - the region’s
second largest housing market
Redmond
median prices recorded a moderate percentage increase for June, rising from
$295,000 to $298,000 from May and a six-month median from January through June
of $292,000.
For
the 7.5 years since the market price bottom in 2011, Redmond prices have steadily
climbed from $128,000, which translates to a 11.6% annualized increase and
beats Bend by nearly 1.5% over the recovery period.
Redmond
inventory tracks similarly to Bend, with only two months supply November
through February, but rising to three months for March through June.
The
smaller submarkets
With 2,532 sales recorded in the 12 months ending June of 2018,
Bend had nearly 58% of the 4,396 Central Oregon closings tracked
by the MLSCO. Redmond came in a distant second with 930 sales, or a little more
than 21%. The five other submarkets represented just over 21% of sales.
Of
the smaller markets Crook County (including Crooked River Rancy) had 310 sales,
followed by Sisters, 187; Sunriver, 175; Jefferson County (includng Madras),
153; and LaPine, 109.
At
the end of June Sisters had the largest inventory of available listings, at six
months, generally considered somewhere between a normal or buyers market. Next highest
was LaPine, five months; Sunriver, four months; Crook County, three months; and
Jefferson, two months.
The
median prices for June closings ranged from a high of $523,000 in Sunriver on
20 sales for the month; $380,000 in Sisters on 17 sales; $270,000 in LaPine on
11 sales; $225,000 in Crook County on 24 sales; and $205,000 in Jefferson
County on 16 sales.
