As
irrigation season begins Central Oregon appears at first glance to
be faring well in the early outlook for water supplies in regional river basins
although the forecast paints a mixed picture for the summer ahead.
As
of May 14 the US Dought Monitor report for Oregon estimated that just under
17% of the state was abnormally dry, with no areas in drought--a considerable
improvement over April 1 when 82% was in the abnormally dry or moderate drought
category.
The
state is also in much better shape than neighborning Washington where Gov. Jay
Inslee has already issued a drought declaration for more than 20 counties.
Washington appears to be suffering most of all Western states according to the
national dourght monitor statistics.
But
even with the optimistic early season conditions, the Natural Resources Conservation
Service says area water managers should expect, “well below normal to near
normal streamflows” ranging from 55% to 103% of normal throughout the Deschutes
Basin.
Reservoir
storage in the basin ranged from a low of 73% of normal at Wickiup to 124% at
Crescent Lake as of May 1.
However,
Crane Prairie above Wickiup on the Deschutes River reported 106% of average
storage and the Crooked River basin reservoirs, Ochoco and Prineville, 108% and
104% respectively.
Snowpack
throughout the Deschutes and Crooked River drainages ranged from 82% in the Upper
Deschutes and 95% in the Little Deschutes basins, against a staggering 307% in
the Upper Crooked basin. By contrast at this time in 2018 the Upper Crooked
basin snowpack was at zero.
The
early May report noted that heavy early April rains were followed by unsually
warm late month temperatures that accelerated snowmelt. Not yet available are
statistics that reflect the atypically cool and wet May in Central Oregon,
including higher elevation snows.
Often closely tracked with water and drought
conditions is the potential for wildfires. As of May 1 the National Interagency
Fire Center’s prediction for August showed above normal positibility of significant
wildfires running from far north Washington state and along the Cascades to the coasts of
Washington and Oregon.
The
agency’s map also shows above normal fire potential for much of northern
California including the Sierras and extending along the western edge of the
state to the Mexican border.
