It’s that time of year.
The tree ornaments, the Menorah and
other holiday symbols have been boxed away for another year. Auld lang syne,
the fireworks and the Times Square ball are fading memories. The hangover –
figurative and literal - is hopefully really over.
Now it’s time many pundits look in the rear
view mirror at all the important and mundane events of 2019
and venture some off the cuff, and maybe off the wall, prognostications.
We could get into politics—impeachment, Ukraine, Russia, gaslighting, real
news, fake news, the 2020 election, turmoil in the royal family and on and on.
But not here
Instead let’s take a backward look
at the real estate market - though no predictions coming from this quarter. You
digest the data and make your own conclusions.
When it comes to pinning down the
current state of the market, if you ask a broker you’re likely to get opinions
that might cut both ways. It’s a seller’s market, but that could change, time
to get listed, a listing broker might say. Or, it’s a buyers market, don’t wait
until prices escalate further, from somene representing a buyer.
To the point: the available 2019 statistics
for single family home sales in Bend show that median prices for the year increased
by 4.55% when calculated for a “rolling” (or “moving”) 12 months ending
December 31. In other words the median of the 12 month median was $447,500
compared with $428,000 for the same period of 2018.
The numbers are for single family
homes on less than an acre in the submarket of Bend/Tumalo/Alfalfa, as reported
by the MLS of Central Oregon database and compiled by Beacaon Appraisal.
Median prices – which splits sales
by prices equally above and below the given number – are more reliable trend
indicators than averaging sales, a method that can skew the market profile through,
for example, a small number of mega-dollar transactions.
For the past year Bend recorded 2,355
single family sales with 317 homes listed as of year end, translating to an inventory
of less than two months availability – calculated by averaging monthly
sales. Inventory has been stuck near that level for the past few years, as homes
coming to market including new and existing ones, have not kept pace with sales.
Depending on various analyst
opinions, a market in balance is in the range of 4-5 months supply to create a
more even playing field for sellers and buyers.
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| Bend and Redmond 2019 |
Bend is by far the largest sub-market
of the seven areas of Central Oregon in the MLS database, followed by
Redmond-Terrebonne. Together they accounted for 79.65% of the reported 4,232 yearly
regional sales. The total was remarkably close to 2018 closings of 4,286.
The top four price ranges, in
$50,000 stages, in Bend were from $300,000 to $500,000, or 57.70% of the total.
Bend also had 123 sales above $1 million a jump from 100 in 2018.
The rolling or moving median price
for 2019 in Redmond was $325,000, up 9.61% from the same 12 months of 2018. The
1,016 total sales and 147 listings at the close of the year mirrored Bend’s at less than two
months available inventory.
Redmond’s top four price ranges were
from $250,000 to $400,000, a total of 78.44% of all sales. There was only a single
sale of $1 million or more.
Among the smaller markets Beacon
Appraisal reported only quarterly median sales prices. In that method, Sunriver’s
median closing price calculated for the four quarters of 2019 was the highest
at $513,500, followed by Sisters, $432,400; Crook Country (incl. Prineville),
$253,000; LaPine, $250,000; and Jefferson County/Crooked River Ranch, $218,500.
