Q1 2022: Prices continue upward with low inventory

             Predictable. No surprises. More of the same.
            Those are some of the likely responses of anyone monitoring the Bend and Central Oregon real state market, which has been in an upward arc for months. Or make that years.
            The latest numbers come from Beacon Appraisal Group of Redmond, based on tablulations by the MLS of Central Oregon covering Deschutes, Crook and Jefferson counties.
            In the first quarter of 2022 the median price of a single family home sold in Bend rose to $773,000, a nearly 4.45% jump over the $740,000 in February and 13.17% more than the $683,000 in January.
            On a rolling 12 months basis from the end of March 2021 through March 2022, the median price rose by $115,000, from $535,000 to $650,500, or 22%, over the previous March 2020 through March 2021 period.
            There were 2,503 sales for the 12 months, with only 132 listings at the end of the period. Calculated by averaging sales for the 12 months, the inventory based on current listings in a scant 0.6 months.

            Viewing sales by price groupings, 57.69% of units sold were in the $400,000 to $700,000 range. There were only 100 sales lower than $400,000, and only four listings under that at the end of March this year.
            The number of $1 million plus sales continued upward, with 391 above that and 70 of more than $1.8 million.
            In Redmond, the median price for March of 2022 was $520,000, a rise of 7.66% from February. The rolling 12 months median for Redmond was $450,000, 24% over the $363,500 for the previous comparable period.

Redmond

            Redmond had 1,056 sales in the 12 months and only 55 listings at the end of March, translating to an inventory of only 0.6 months, the same as Bend.
            There were 58% of Redmond sales in the $350,000 to $500,000 range and none above $1 million.
            Although Redmond’s 12 months median price of $450,000 was 30% lower than Bend’s, the smaller city to the north had only a single listing under $400,000 at the end of March, even lower than Bend’s four in that range.

The smaller submarkets

            In the smaller submarkets tracked by Beacon Appraisal and the MLS of Central Oregon, single family sales totaled 1,140, with Crook County leading the group at 333 closings.
            Also included in the smaller submarkets are Sisters, Sunriver, La Pine and Jefferson County (including Madras and Crooked River Ranch).
            Sunriver – including the resort complex of Sunriver Resort, Caldera Springs and Crosswater – had the highest median price mark in the first quarter of 2022, at $885,000, with 33 recorded sales.
            Sisters was next with a median of $667,000 on 38 sales, followed by La Pine, $452,000 on 51 sales; Crook County, $390,000, 70 sales; and Jefferson County, $356,000, 62 sales.
            Inventory in the smaller submarkets ranged from a low of only 0.12 months in Sunviver to 1.5 months in Jefferson County. La Pine has a 1.2 months supply and Crook County 1.3.

The Drought Worsens: Another summer of crop and wildfire problems expected

 Update: Significant new snowfall of nearly four feet  that began April 8 in the high country will result in new snowpack information for the Oregon Cascades and Deschutes Basin. As of early April 12 the NRCS Snotel gauges at Three Creeks Meadow showed that snowpack had increased from 84% of median on April 4 to 91%, and that snow water equivalent rose to 30% of median from 16%. Early April 14 Mt. Bachelor ski area reported 43 inches in the past seven days and a base of 104 inches, the first time over 100 inches this ski season. Water resource officials say it's not likely the new snowfall will substantially alleviate coming summer drought conditions.

            First the good news: It rained April 4 in lower elevations and snowed up to a foot in the higher country. Mt. Bachelor touted 10 inches overnight to freshen the slopes.
            Now the bad news: It is unlikely that even an unseasonably wet April and May will bring much relief to drought conditions that are only worsening as much of Central Oregon heads into summer. 
                 A look at the federal Drought Monitor map for Oregon as of March 31 shows the state and Nevada are the only ones in the western United States with counties experiencing “exceptional” drought – the driest conditions reported.
            All told 15.01% of Oregon is in the exceptional category and 88% rated as being from severe to exceptional. East of the Cascades only portions of several counties along the northern border escape being in the severe or worse drought categories.
            Crook County is the only one of all the counties entirely in the exceptional category. But significant chunks of Deschutes, Jefferson, Lake and Klamath join Crook in having the worst conditions.

            Notably, California is experiencing overall the worst drought conditions in the nation with the entire state in a range of severe to exceptional drought. But none of the state is listed as in exceptional drought.
            The federal drought monitor is a project of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska, with data collected from cooperating federal agencies including the US Department of Agriculture, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Department of Commerce.
            Also offering scant evidence that drought conditions will improve is data on snowpack and its moisture content, or snow water equivalent, reported by the Natural Resources Conservation Service, part of the federal agriculture department.
            The NRCS’ Snotel location for Three Creeks Meadows registered a snowpack of 84% of the median. But the water content of the snowpack was only 16% of median.
            The daunting outlook for summer has already resulted in the Governor’s drought declarations for Jefferson, Crook and Klamath counties, the latter which has resulted in massive acreage lying fallow in recent years due to climate and endangered species issues. Deschutes County has also declared a drought and is waiting for the Governor’s action, which will unlock some relief in the form of subsidies to haul livestock water, ability to tap groundwater wells and graze land placed in conservation.
            Apart from the agricultural impacts the dry conditions have already prompted warnings from wildfire management agencies to brace for an active summer season that could begin early earlier than usual and extend longer.

Eager shredders at the lift line April 14

            Jefferson County has (or had) Central Oregon’s most productive agricultural lands before the continuing drought of the past few years. The North Unit Irrigation District which manages irrigation water in much of Jefferson County has cut allocation to 0.45 acre feet of water per acre, from the Deschutes River system, and 0.225 from the Crooked River.
            An acre foot is the amount of water required to cover an acre of land to a depth of one foot, or approximately 326,000 gallons.
            As reported by The Bulletin of Bend the allotment is the lowest in district history and only one-fourth of an average year.
            The North Unit district, and its growers and livestock ranchers, are at the mercy not only of overarching climatic conditions but also challenges to manage water releases from the region’s dams to protect the endangered spotted frog.
            And the North Unit’s water rights are junior to those of the Central Oregon Irrigation District, most of whose members use water primarily for hay production rather than higher value food crops.
            Most of the irrigation water in the Deschutes and Crooked River basins comes from snowmelt and is captured in upstream reservoirs.

            A look at the early season levels in several reservoirs emphasizes the remarkable obstacles confronting water users this summer.
            On April 5 Wickiup Reservoir, which holds water for North Unit junior water rights irrigators, was at 55% capacity, holding 110,244 acre feet compared with 115,403 the same time last year and 42% below historic average.
            By contrast, Crane Prairie Reservoir, which holds water for COID’s senior rights, above Wickiup on the Deschutes River, was 85% full at 49,967 acre feet, only slightly below 2021 at 45,298 and ahead of the 42,406 acre feet average.
            Recognizing the distortion between senior and water rights, COID officials have been encouraging its members who do not need water for the coming season to, in effect, contribute it for the benefit of North Unit irrigators.
            Oregon water law permits water rights to be returned “instream” for habitat and fish conservation, which can also free water for use by junior rights holders. New efforts are underway to create a "water bank" that could theoretically provide a market to provide the resource to where the need is greater.

 Previous

DROUGHT: The glass lower than half empty made even worse with a June heatwave

Another drought season in the works: Low snowpack and reservoirs

 Snowpack, water and endangered species - A complicated calculus

Fact Sheet of Draft EIS for the Deschutes Basin HCP

https://www.fws.gov/oregonfwo/Documents/DeschutesHCP/deisFR/mtgs/Deschutes%20Fact%20Sheet%20-%20WEB.pdf

Complete DRAFT HCP as of August 2019

https://www.fws.gov/oregonfwo/Documents/DeschutesHCP/deisFR/DBHCP%20Entire%20Document%20August%202019.pdf

A Timeline of the Spotted Frog ESA listing in the Deschutes Basin

https://bendisbetter.blogspot.com/2016/02/spotted-frog-esa-listing-creates.html