Global chaos: Where to with Real Estate?

             What, me worry?
            The question associated with satirical Mad Magazine’s depiction of its fictional cartoonish mascot Alfred E. Neuman may be on a lot of minds these days.
            Given the everything all at once nature of foreign policy and the global economy no doubt many are seeking shelter in the stormy chaos—whether it’s for relief from gas and grocery prices or housing costs.
            In all of the uncertainty those in the investor cohort glance nervously at a record upward trajectory of the stock market indices, if not all individual stocks, wondering if the ever rising trend, with a few precipitous drops, are the start of a "correction," – or just the usual whipsawing fluctuations from Trump administration policies.
            In this milieu have entered the prediction markets, where betting on virtually anything can create the very results on which the bets are placed. And with this is raised the question of who could benefit wagering on the conflicting news of such events as the Iran war and even the fate Trump’s coveted White House ballroom.
            Don’t forget the continuing inflation bogeyman, with any positive trend downward likely blunted by the uncertainty of global conflicts combined with lingering effects of tariffs.
            But for many who would just like to find an affordable home (an elusive metric) they’re just hanging on while eyeing interest rates and job uncertainty in some cases driven by AI displacements.
            Let’s look at what the “experts” are saying in the national macro view of the real estate markets, then take a more granular view of how Bend and Central Oregon are weathering the ever-shifting environment.
            But parsing trends could be difficult – as found in two entirely different reports from the same data source:
            “Pending sales of previously owned US homes climbed for a second month in March as a pickup in inventory helped mitigate higher borrowing costs. An index of contract signings increased by 1.5% to a four-month high of 73.7, according to National Association of Realtors data released Tuesday.” – Bloomberg, April 21, 2026. https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-1-5-increase-in-march
            But there’s this:
            “By the numbers: Existing home sales fell 3.6% last month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 milllion – down 1% from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.” – Axios, April 13, 2026  https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales
            So what’s the real story? Take note that the April 21 report was for “pending sales” of existing homes and the one issues April 13 for “home sales.” 
            Maybe the best conclusion from this is that the national market remains in flux with no solid direction. With all the national and global economic and foreign policy issues providing background, predicting the housing market may be as opaque as guessing Donald Trump’s next post on his cherished Truth Social platform.
             Descending from the national to the local market maybe the best conclusion is a market adrift in terms of sales numbers and inventory and, in terms of median prices. Prices have appeared to level out albeit at numbers reached in the propulsion of the pandemic years. Statistics for this report are derived from the Beacon Report, compiled by Beacon Appraisal Group LLC of Redmond from data of the MLS of Central Oregon.

             For the 12 months ending March 31, 2026 the median single family home closing price in Bend declined from $724,500 for the comparable previous year at $719,000, a drop of $5,500 or 0.76%. During the year monthly median prices ranged from a high of $832,000 in April of last year down to a low of $680,000 in January.
            As has been the case for recent periods, sales at more than $1 million accounted for about a quarter of the total, or 25.40%, including 99 sales above $1.8 million. The largest concentration of closings, 41%, were in the $500,000 to $700,000 range.
            The number of sales in the 12 months rose from 1,622 in 2025 to 1,764 at the end of March, a 0.87% gain. The greatest number of sales were 180 in September of 2025 with a low of 83 closings in January of this year.
            In both 12 month periods the inventory held at only 3 months, confirming a pattern of tight market availability but still a month more than for several previous years.
            Just a few miles north in Redmond, the region’s second largest home market, median closing price for the 12 months through March 31 was $512,000 a drop from the $524,500 in the comparable 12 months ending in 2025, or minus 2.38%.
            Total sales in Redmond for the period dropped from 728 to 606, or more than 16% for the period. Inventory in Redmond was approximately 2.5 months, a half percentage below Bend.
            Nearly 60% (352 or 58%) of Redmond sales were grouped in a range $400,000 to $550,000 and only one was recorded at more than $1 million.

The Multifamily Market - An overbuilt apartment market 

                Unlike the single family residential market in Bend, there is little dispute about what’s happening with  “multifamily," or apartments.
            The market is substantially overbuilt. Supply has far outdistanced demand. And rental rates will have to adjust to bring a balance. Apartment owners need to consider seller financing or be willing to wait out the glut.
            Those are key takeaways from a Q1 report from a leading Bend commercial brokerage, Compass Commercial.
            As the author of the company’s “Compass Points” puts it:
            “If it feels like Bend is suddenly full of vacant apartments, you’re not imagining it. 1,187 multifamily units have been delivered over the past two years, with another 1,406 under construction. Vacant inventory now exceeds 1,000 units, and at current absorption rates, it could take up to five years to work through the excess, assuming there’s no additional

development.”
            The report notes that some of the newer more luxury projects are hardest hit. From other sources, that would appear to include the 313-unit Jackstraw, which opened in Fall of 2025 and has been slow to attract tenants. One report says the vacancy rate could be pushing 90%.
            Another major project, Timber Yards, initially proposed for about 1,600 units nearby the Jackstraw by Los Angeles based Kennedy-Wilson, was put on hold, citing market conditions including interest rates.  It’s now moving through the city planning process with fewer units and a different design with a smaller retail component.
            Jackstraw had received a $10 million tax break from the City of Bend, which the Portland developer said was needed to make the project pencil out. The City soon after rethought the tax relief strategy.
            City officials and a loosely organized YIMBY (yes in my backyard) have generally encouraged multifamily development in many areas. Including in the strategy has been the City’s quick compliance of new state regulations encouraging multiplex units in existing single family zoned neighborhoods.
            Included in the new provision of the development code is the possibility of having a quadraplex built on single family lots with no requirement for off street parking. And a short-term rental (STR) would be allowed in one unit.
            The STR issue has been contentious in Bend, with the code provision tightened a few years back to require greater separation of 500 feet, instead of 250 feet, between vacation units in most single family neighborhoods.
            One potentially unintended result of more apartment construction is that several of the newer projects could be converted to condos under current code regulations. And is some zones, these could become nightly rental units with no distance separation requirement.                    The effect, some critics say, would be to compete with existing traditional lodging businesses, while doing little to increase more affordable workforce housing.

 

Looking Back and Going Forward - A Tough Forecast

             If any “experts” pretend to know where the real estate segment of the economy is heading in 2026 maybe take their predictions with a large dose of skepticism
               In fact, as 2025 has drawn to a close it’s even challenging to dissect all that happened in a clear and convincing analysis. There is simply still too much of a firehose of conflicting data and national policy uncertainty spewing from the chaos of the Trump administration.   
            One day tariffs are going to be massive, the next negotiated or otherwise reduced. Trump wants Fed chair Jerome Powell gone, insulting him in typical Trump style, and having his lackey Jeanine Piro, US attorney for DC, try for an indictment.
            Could it be that Trump’s dispute with Powell is less about interest rates but has been accelerated by an earlier tour of a Federal Reserve construction project? Trump thought he had Powell in a “gotcha” media moment, pulling out papers he alleged showed massive cost overruns on the project. But Powell carefully pointed out that the numbers Trump showed included a project completed several years earlier.
            The upshot: Trump doesn’t like to be caught in his continual purveying of misinformation, especially as the cameras are rolling.
            Now The Dissembler in Chief is pulling out the stops in attempts to show he’s getting a handle on this pesky housing affordability issue.
            It started some weeks back with the idea of a 50 year mortgage to spread out the monthly pain of buying a home when interest rates are high. Most reasonable analyses pointed out the horrendous total interest payments in this scenario, as well as a drag on building equity over such an extended period.

            Also introduced more recently is the idea of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, stepping in to buy $200 billion in mortgages to be packaged in bonds to jumpstart the housing market. Another idea is to cap credit card rates at 10%, ostensibly relieving consumers of burdensome interest payments. In the latter, banks are not rushing to join the bandwagon.
            Trump’s carping about Powell and the Fed has hit strong pushback from former Republican and Democrat appointed Fed chairmen, as well as the head of the nation’s largest Bank who has supported the central bank’s historic independence. And Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said moves to “chip away” at the separation from interference could push rates higher.
            Chase CFO Jeremy Barnum said the 10% credit card rate idea would in effect reduce credit available for consumers, “the exact opposite consequence to what the administration wants..” Banks would likely offer less credit, Barnum said.
            Trump is also claiming he will find a way to prevent corporations and hedge funds from locking up portfolios of single family homes to flip. But data shows that the practice has been declining year to year and that about one-third of the buy, rent and flip market involved “mom and pop” investors rather than big money corporations. 

Trump behavior destabilizes the economy 

            Moreover, Trump and his sycophantic Cabinet and advisers seem oblivious that continuing inchoate foreign policy rumblings – from Venezuela to Greenland – and insults to long term allies in Europe and across the globe are destabilizing to the economy.
            In all of this there appears to be at least one potentially positive trend emerging. The stay put trend of homeowners enjoying low interest rates may be loosening, theoretically opening more inventory for the market.
            Axios reported in mid-January that mortgages above 6% now exceed those below 3% for the first time since 2020, showing a sight movement overall to the reality of market rates. But 80% of mortgages remain below 6%.
            As the report noted, at some point regardless of their mortgage rate homeowners are compelled to move—whether with a new marriage, a divorce, to downsize, have kids or retire. On the negative side as inventory improves slowly, a wave of pent up demand could drive up prices, in turn exacerbating the affordability problem.

Dollar decline with Trump term

            In the past two years the S&P 500 has risen more than 45%. But as the AI boom fuels the stock market there’s increasing concern of an expanding bubble that could drive more investment in assets such as real estate.
            Whatever the impetus, increasing investment in or migration to the housing market, without concurrent inventory increases, could further squeeze new homeowners out of the American dream of home ownership. Many of them are not in the investor club where members have enjoyed substantial returns and likely already have a primary home and maybe even a real estate portfolio.
            If we can’t deduce what is happening the present, or even coherently parse the past, how will we determine what’s ahead? Is the year ahead in this 250^th anniversary of the country a shining light at the end of the tunnel? Or is it, as the cliché goes, just a train roaring our way?  
      With the preceding smorgasbord of cliches and fractured metaphors on the table, let’s consider a single premise:
            Real estate is a tangible asset. You can buy it, live in it, rent it, improve it and sell it. It’s also something you can hold onto without the fear that in a single day it will be worth half of what you paid for it, except in extreme circumstances. And you can insure it against catastrophes such as weather or fire in most situations. 

In Central Oregon 

            All that said, let’s go deeper in what’s happening in Bend and Central Oregon using statistics from Beacon Appraisal Group as compiled from the regional multiple listing service.
            For the 12 months of 2025 Bend single family median home prices rose on less than one acre rose by 4.36%, from $710,500 to $741,000 as calculated on a rolling 12-month period.

            There were 1,738 sales in the past 12 months with 345 active listings, compared with 1,582 in 2025 and 319 listing then. Those numbers translate to approximately a 2.5 month inventory at the end of both 12-month periods.
            The number of sales at more than $1million was slightly more than 25%, continuing a trend of higher priced closing, with 103 of the 445 in that category more than $1.8 million. More than 41% of sales were in the $500,000 to $700,000 range.
            Results in both years indicate a mostly static market sales volume and sale prices trend of the past few years following dramatic price increases and total sales during and just after the pandemic period.
            Up to the north in Redmond, the region’s second largest real estate segment, median prices of home on under and acre rose 2.95% during 2025, from $509,000 to $524,000.
            Redmond year sales totaled only 626 a drop from 712 in 2025. There were a scarce 75 single family homes listed at year-end, compared with 111 at the end of 2025, an inventory of 1.5 months.
            For a summary of activity and the past year for smaller market segments in the region visit the Beacon Report:         

Bend home prices over 28 years

 The multi-family market 

            In recent years as an attempt stimulate more housing growth the City of Bend established tax incentives for new apartment development.
            One of the more notable examples is the new Jackstraw project in an area just north of the Old Mill area of the Deschutes River with a mix of retail, office, lodging and residential facilities.
            Jackstraw, a project of Portland’s Killian-Pacific, opened for leasing in late 2025, with approximately 313 units ranging from studio to three bedrooms. The developer received a 10% property tax deduction from the city, maintaining it would not be economically feasible given unfavorable interest rates and construction costs.
            With community and competitor backlash, the city backtracked on the incentives for another 1,600 unit  project proposed nearby by Los Angeles based Kennedy-Wilson, which led the company to delay plans and recast the design to include fewer units.
            Jackstraw’s leasing effort has moved lowly, with reports that more than 80% of units were still available as of early January.https://www.centraloregondaily.com/new-jackstraw-apartments-in-bend-still-has-hundreds-of-vacant-units/video_f095d305-79c0-5b00-ab8b-e1ad57842a43.html
            From a Q3  post regarding the regional multi-family market trends:
            The aggressive push for more apartments has run up against the reality of rents that have yet to adjust significantly to reflect area incomes. Vacancies in newer more upscale buildings have prompted incentives such as free months’ rent. And colorful balloons float above tent signs encouraging potential renters to take a tour.
            In single family neighborhoods rental signs that were largely absent only a few years ago now languish in front yards for weeks. One factor could be that single family home rentals were in demand for transient healthcare workers who enjoyed substantial six-figure incomes during the Covid shutdown.