Not much clarity: Waiting for that "inflection point"

         As Q3 2025 has wrapped, is there anything in the statistical tea leaves of Central Oregon real estate to predict year end and the future in 2026.
        A short answer: not much clarity there but many murky issues swirling.
        For all the uncertainty emerging from the first three quarters of the Trump administration the regional housing market appears to be performing slightly better than many parts of the country. This continues a trend of the past few years.
        The question, then, for Bend and Central Oregon is whether it can continue to outperform national trends. That’s far less certain.
        As usual the interest rate bogeyman is still stalking. Despite a modest decline this year and the talk of a more accommodating Federal Reserve, rates are still at 6.30% as of October 9, according to the Federal National Mortgage Association (Freddie Mac) database. That’s nearly a point and half below the high of 7.76% reached on November 2, 2023.
        But it’s still a whopping rise from the low of 2.67% recorded on the last day of 2020, before a mostly rise to first cross 7.0% on October 27, 2022, followed by ups and downs, yet remaining above 6.0% since then.
        On its website, Freddie Mac notes on October 9 that: “Over the last few weeks, mortgage rates have settled in at their lowest level in about a year. There is growing evidence that homebuyers are digesting these lower rates and gradually are willing to move forward with buying a home…”

        Although any downward move in interest rates could be welcome, there are substantial other factors at play in the economy – and by association, the real estate market across the country.
        On the positive side, the securities markets apparently ignoring the headwinds of interest rate uncertainty, contraction in hiring and lower GDP growth. There’s also the ever-present Specter of how much, or how little, Trump’s tariff wars will impact inflation of many goods, including building products that affect new housing costs.
        Lower interest rates could help the housing market. But the positive influence could be mitigated by rising construction costs, lower employment and wage stagnation.
        And there’s rising concern that the lengthy bull market run on Wall Street is bound to moderate, even implode, resulting in a rush to gold and even once-derided cryptocurrency as hedges. Part of the gold rush is attributed to the potential decline of the dollar as the bulwark of world currencies, probably not a good thing.
        Moreover, much of the equities runup has been accelerated by a buying frenzy wishfully tethered to the as yet unknown contribution of AI.  Advanced chip development and data centers have mushroomed on the back of debt and even government investment rather than financed with booked revenue.
        What all this means for real estate – local, regional and national—is (drum roll) unpredictable. So back to the basics as noted in new statistics as recorded at the end of September as gleaned from the Beacon Report of Beacon Appraisal Group using data from the regional Multiple Listing Service.
        The median price of a single family home on less than an acre in Bend for the rolling 12 months was $741,000, a rise of 14,000 or 1.92%, more than for the comparable period that concluded at the end of September of 2024.

        During that period there were 1,693 sales closed and 560 homes listed at the end of the month. That translates to an inventory of four months of available homes, based on the average of sales for the previous 12 months. It’s a half-month more available for sale than in late 2024, but only slightly in the range of 4-6 months usually considered to be a market in balance between sellers and buyers.
        By comparison, for the previous 12-month period ending September 30, 2025, Bend single family inventory was 3.5 months with 1,537 sales for that span and 451 units listed.
        Of the sales, more than 25% closed at a price of more than $1 million, continuing a trend that has run for at least a year. Also, of the total sales at all price points, more than 30% were cash transactions rather than financed with conventional loans.
        Up the road only 15 miles north to Redmond, statistics show some differences in the single family market.
        The median price of a single family home there rose slightly less, only 8,500 or 1.65% from $515,000 to $524,000 for comparable 12-month periods ending September 30. But Redmond inventory was only two months, based on 666 sales the recent period and 121 homes listed.
        In the “luxury” market, there was only a single sale that closed above $1 million, a scant .01%. And Redmond recorded more than 10% fewer cash transactions, at 20.57% than the 31% in Bend.
        Elsewhere in the region, Sunriver, which includes the Crosswater and Sunriver golf resorts, recorded a median single family sale price of $950,000 with only 115 sales and 49 listed at the end of September.
        Sisters had 117 sales at a median of $743,000 with 54 listed; Lapine, 130 at $375,000 and 75 listed; Jefferson County (Madras and Crooked River Ranch, 168 at $350,000 and 75 listed; and Crook County (including Prineville), 264 at $426,000 and 120 listed.