Better, worse or more of same?
Depending on how you analyze it -- or interpret the "metrics" in currently fashionable biz speak--an argument could be made that the Central Oregon market is slowly stabilizing. But there are lingering questions whether we’re in for another dip or a protracted period of bouncing along the bottom.
And the answers will be found not only in the pace of a reported, if elusive, national economic recovery but also in local conditions specific to Bend and Central Oregon .
In the nearly vertical climb of the region’s real estate market in the first decade of the 21st Century unit sales, prices and sales volume were driven by forces in play throughout the country—escalating prices everywhere, easy credit for primary and secondary homes and the generally euphoric attitude that it wouldn’t end. Of course it did—with a thud.
Today’s realism has supplanted any thoughts that we’ll ever see a confluence of market events like the recent past, and the most rational among us probably think that’s a good thing.
As we emerge into a new decade there are a number of positive, if subtle improvements underway in Central Oregon .
--Home sales are up, although slowing after impacts of the federal $8,000 tax credit have largely been absorbed. Only the LaPine area out of seven area sub-markets failed to notch a gain in unit sales from 2009 through 2010.
--Notices of default on home loans and ELOCs (equity lines of credit) filed by lenders in Deschutes County declined by 7.3% from 2009 through 2010, after a phenomenal rise of 537% from 590 in 2007 to 3,762 in 2010.
--In early 2011 the “supply” of active listings of single family homes on the Multiple Listing Service of Central Oregon database was down to 4.5 months. At one time in recent years it was more than 13 months. (The supply is calculated by averaging the previous 12 months sales, then dividing current active listings by that number).
A caveat in the diminished supply, however, could be that with a healthy supply of distressed properties on the market some "traditional" sellers are holding back to wait for more favorable economic conditions.
A caveat in the diminished supply, however, could be that with a healthy supply of distressed properties on the market some "traditional" sellers are holding back to wait for more favorable economic conditions.
--Median prices have leveled off after drops of as much as 45% in Bend from 2006 through 2010, and even higher in other sub-markets of Central Oregon such as Jefferson County
Apart from the positive numbers distressed properties have indisputably driven sales for the past few years. In the two largest sub-markets short sales or foreclosed properties (known as REOs, or real estate owned by lenders) claimed 57% of 2010 single family sales in Bend and 68% in Redmond. Moreover, distressed properties also comprised the overwhelming majority early 2011 pending or contingent sales—77% in Bend and 87% in Redmond
Coming up:
The region’s appeal as a recreation, resort and retirement area continues to attract careful investors.
The following chart provides an overview focusing on single family homes as the largest slice of the regional market. Statistics are derived from the Multiple Listing Service of Central Oregon and may vary slightly from reports of appraisal companies or other entities.
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES (on lots less than 1 acre) Central Oregon-Bend MSA* | ||||||||||||
TOTAL UNITS SOLD | SOLD as SHORT SALES/REOs | PENDING/ CONTINGENT SALES | ACTIVE LISTINGS | SHORT/REO ACTIVE LISTINGS | ||||||||
Town or area | Total units sold Including short sales and foreclosures (REOs) | % change total units sold | Short sales/bank owned (REO) units Sold | % Short/ REO units sold | Pending or contingent sales(all) /PendContshortREO | % short& REO of total pending or contingent | Total active listings | Active short/ REO listings | % short / REO of active listings | |||
2001 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2009-2010 | 2010 | 2010 | Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | |
1,419 | 1,123 | 1,544 | 1,687 | +9.26% | 964 | 57.14% | 316 / 244 | 77.21% | 508 | 184 | 36.22% | |
519 | 446 | 629 | 727 | +15.58% | 494 | 67.95% | 135 / 117 | 86.67% | 272 | 138 | 50.74% | |
Sisters | 90 | 77 | 70 | 88 | +25.71% | 36 | 40.91% | 19 / 11 | 57.89% | 71 | 16 | 22.54% |
Sunriver | 170 | 72 | 80 | 92 | +15.0% | 11 | 11.9% | 11 / 4 | 36.36% | 130 | 5 | 3.85% |
Crook Co. | 127 | 120 | 163 | 221 | +35.58% | 157 | 71.0% | 40 / 32 | 80.00% | 103 | 31 | 30.0% |
La Pine | 17 | 31 | 71 | 64 | -9.86% | 43 | 67.19% | 9 / 6 | 66.67% | 27 | 13 | 48.14% |
NA | 78 | 113 | 120 | +6.19% | 92 | 67.67% | 27 / 21 | 77.78% | 60 | 16 | 26.67% | |
Town or area | MEDIAN PRICES | MEDIAN PRICE CHANGES | |||||||||
2001 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | % change 2009-2010 | % +/- from 2006 peak to 2010 | % change 2001-2010 | |
168,950 | 227,500 | 279,900 | 352,500 | 345,000 | 289,450 | 212,637 | 191,000 | -10.18% | -45.82% | +13.05% | |
125,000 | 158,500 | 198,818 | 262,524 | 250,000 | 216,000 | 147,500 | 123,900 | -16.00% | -43.81% | -0.80% | |
Sisters | 235,000 | 308,500 | 394,250 | 460,500 | 415,000 | 367,450 | 286,250 | 233,750 | -18.34% | -49.24% | -0.53% |
Sunriver | 289,500 | 393,500 | 462,500 | 575,000 | 548,547 | 555,738 | 402,000 | 417,500 | +3.86% | -27.39% | +44.21% |
Crook Co. | 106,524 | 114,928 | 149,275 | 197,000 | 199,450 | 177,500 | 111,875 | 91,100 | -18.57% | -53.76% | -14.48% |
LaPine | 86,000 | 135,000 | 148,500 | 183,250 | 215,000 | 160,000 | 109,000 | 102,450 | -6.01% | -44.23% | +19.13% |
NOT REPORTED | NOT REPORTED | NOT REPORTED | 165,080 | 177,950 | 139,950 | 89,900 | 68,700 | -23.58% | -58.38% | NA-NOT REPORTED UNTIL 2006 | |
This information is derived from the Central Oregon Association of Realtors MLS database. It is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. MSA includes three counties of Central Oregon .
