Vacation-second (3rd etc.) homes still drive Bend economy: snapshots from other similar mountain town areas

      It's difficult to dispute that Bend's fortunes have largely been tied to appeal of the region's recreation abundance and the resorts that initially attract visitors who may end up buying a vacation retreat which may even become a retirement home. As such a comparison with trends in areas like Colorado's ski country is useful.

 Richard Seymour, CEO and founder of a leading Colorado resort investment and nightly lodging company, observes vacation real estate in Summit County, Colorado--home to Breckendrige, Keystone and Copper Mountain--continued to struggle in 2010. Seymour predicts it could be several years before pricing returns to mid-2000s levels. However he says skier days have rebounded from such events as 9-11 and the 2008 implosion of the financial markets.

Colorado ski country:

"It looks like the economic dam may be breaking," Seymour believes.  The only thing that's happened recently is that crazy tax deal compromise, which didn't seem like much at the time.  But Christmas spending took off in December and now the economy continues to hum along in January.  2.5 years is quite a run for a recession--hope it's ending.

"October was the first month in over 2 years which had more bookings than the preceding year (month-to-month).  December was also up a bit and January has been way up (at least the first week). Not convinced we're out of the woods yet, but these are the first encouraging signs in years.

"The Keystone brokers are saying we're 'back to 2006 prices,' but the market has stabilized.  My guess is that things are leveling out, but I don't see any impetus for improved values anytime soon (still no buyers in sight and those that do show up are bottom-feeding)."

Elsewhere in Colorado, an Aspen title company reports that through November the value of real estate sales in the country’s most expensive ski town  had increased by 15%, to $1.14 billion over 2009.

The town’s finance department also reported a 5% jump in sales tax receipts, indicating a recovering commercial economy.

Jackson Hole:
The Wyoming ski area also reports vacation bookings are up for the winter holidays. An abundance of snow enabled Jackson Hole Mountain Resort to open all its lifts in November.

One report says it appears the mid to luxury market in the pricey area may be stabilizing. There was particular strength in areas considered primarily second homes, which accounted for nearly half of all sales in 2010.

"At the close of 2010, there appears a chance that the mid-to upper-level market segments are stabilizing," according to a principal in RMAppraisals of Jackson. "However, entry-level housing appears poised for more devaluation until the inventory of distressed properties can be worked through."

The dollar volume of all transactions--single family, condo and commercial--in Jackson Hole peaked in 2007 at more than $1,570,000,000. Total dollar volume in 2010 was $509,000,000, off 66% from the record high but up 53% from the $333,000,000 in 2009, according to The Hole Report by veteran broker Dave Viehmans.
However, Teton County records show foreclosures also jumped dramatically--60%--with the opening bids for properties sent to auction rising by more than 90% to $181,000,000 from $95,000,000 from 2009 through 2010.