Friday, November 29, 2013

Bubble, Bubble?...Toil and Trouble...



With apologies to Shakespeare. (the actual phrase from Macbeth is “double, double..” etc.)
There’s  a lot of bubble talk these days, mostly in the direction of the stock market. Instead of a brew of eyes of newt, frog toes and other unsavory ingredients,  market  witchers (couldn’t resist) are running the numbers and letters for an alphabet soup of stock forecasts.
Some say the sky could be falling. But other analysts believe there’s more on the upside, even after the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached all-time highs earlier in November.
It’s been a remarkable runup by the two major indexes and also many individual stocks since late 2008-early 2009 when equities led the housing recession in a freefall.
 Since March of 2009 the S&P 500 has increased by nearly 165% and the DJIA by 137%. Over the past year the indexes have risen nearly 28% and 23%, respectively.
Now that real estate--residential and investment-- is recovering around the country, there’s a logical question on the minds of many, i. e.,“Will jittery investors move more assets out of stocks and into real estate?”
A recent CNBC report supports the scenario of an exodus from stocks to real estate and other investments.
The report cites the Spectrum Group “Millionaire Investor Confidence Index” which recovered slightly in November after a precipitous decline in October.
According to CNBC’s report, millionaire households had the largest increase in assets for a single November since 2007, as the result of the continued climb of the stock market.
Millionaires planning to invest in stock mutual funds declined by 5%, CNBC reported, but those considering real estate or cash equivalents increased by 7%.