As difficult as it might be to contemplate after Central Oregon’s protracted housing crash there are rumblings that pricing imbalances could return to the market.
Thus far the possibility is not readily apparent in single family home sales, although median prices have been creeping upward. But the culprit, in the view of some observers, could be a dramatically shrinking inventory—especially in the lower to middle market tiers.
At the end of 2012 there was only a 1.9 months “supply” of active listed Bend single family homes on less than an acre—the type of housing that typically is most indicative of broader market trends.
That’s far below the industry standards of 4-5 months considered “healthy” for normal sustainable growth without pushing prices unsually higher.
And it’s a remarkable drop from the bad old days of the market implosion when Bend’s supply topped 12 months.
In a recent comment regarding Bend’s inventory of buildable land a official of the Central Oregon Bulder’s Association cautioned that the current pace of new single family construction could mean that prices could rise sharply if additional land is not available within the city.
Some brokers also lament the lack of inventory, especially in homes in the $200,000s that are often considered entry level for buyers unable to offer larger down payments.
The median price of a Bend single family home moved up 16% to $220,000 for the past year while properties sold rose 17% to 1,974.
Short sales and foreclosures continue to comprise a significant percentage of activity, with 35%, or 688 of the Bend sales, falling into the “distressed” category.
Also, among the 332 pending/contingent sales at year-end, 43% or 142 properties, were in the short sale/bank owned column.
Of all areas tracked by the Multiple Listing Service of Central Oregon Bend is by far the largest sub-market in terms of unit sales, at 61%, and sales volume of 67%, or $398,063,883 of the total $586,434,562.
Redmond is a distance second to the Bend market, accounting for about 20% of single family sales and slightly under 16% of sales volume at $90,956,564.
The accompanying chart provides an overview of the single family housing market throughout areas reported on the MLSCO database.
Among key points the chart reveals:
- Over the 12-year period of 2001 through 2012 home appreciation in the region was highest in Bend, at 30%, followed by Sunriver, 21% and Redmond, 12%.
- In the past year Jefferson County (Madras) had the highest percentage of distressed property sales, at 62%, followed by La Pine, 61% and Crook County (Prineville and area), 52%. Sunriver was lowest at 14%.
- Among pending and contingent transactions in early 2012, Bend had the lowest rate of short sales/bank owned properties in contract, at 43%; Jefferson County was highest at 83%.
- Sisters had the highest inventory of available homes, an 8.87 months supply, followed by Sunriver, 7.71 months.
Note: the chart numbers may vary slightly, but not materially, from other published reports due to sales recorded later in January by the MLSCO and not reflected when the chart was generated immediately after year-end.
