Global chaos: Where to with Real Estate?

             What, me worry?
            The question associated with satirical Mad Magazine’s depiction of its fictional cartoonish mascot Alfred Neuman may be on a lot of minds these days.
            Given the everything all at once nature of foreign policy and the global economy no doubt many are seeking shelter in the stormy chaos—whether it’s for relief from gas and grocery prices or housing costs.
            In all of the uncertainty those in the investor cohort glance nervously at a record upward trajectory of the stock market indices, if not all individual stocks, wondering if the flipside precipitous drops are the start of something worse – or just the usual whipsawing fluctuations from Trump administration policies.
            In the milieu enter the prediction markets, where betting on virtually anything can create the very results on which the bets are placed. And with this is raised the question of who could benefit wagering on the conflicting news of such events as the Iran war and even the fate Trump’s coveted White House ballroom.
            Don’t forget the continuing inflation bogeyman, with any positive trend downward likely blunted by the uncertainty of global conflicts combined with lingering effects of tariffs.
            But for many who would just like to find an affordable home (a to be determined metric) they’re just hanging on while eyeing interest rates and job uncertainty in some cases driven by AI displacements.
            Let’s look at what the “experts” are saying in the national macro view of the real estate markets, then take a more granular view of how Bend and Central Oregon are weathering the ever-shifting environment.
            But sussing trends could be difficult – as found in two entirely different reports from the same data source:
            “Pending sales of previously owned US homes climbed for a second month in March as a pickup in inventory helped mitigate higher borrowing costs. An index of contract signings increased by 1.5% to a four-month high of 73.7, according to National Association of Realtors data released Tuesday.” – Bloomberg, April 21, 2026. https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-1-5-increase-in-march
            But there’s this:
            “By the numbers: Existing home sales fell 3.6% last month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 milllion – down 1% from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.” – Axios, April 13, 2026  https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales
            So what’s the real story? Take note that the April 21 report was for “pending sales” of existing homes and the one issues April 13 for “home sales.”
            Maybe the best conclusion from this is that the national market remains in flux with ups and downs and sideways movements. With all the national and global economic and foreign policy issues swirling the housing market may be as opaque as guessing Donald Trump’s next post on his cherished Truth Social platform.
             Descending from the national to the local market maybe the best conclusion is a market adrift in terms of sales numbers and inventory and, in terms of median prices, also appearing to level out albeit at numbers reached in the propulsion of the pandemic years. Statistics for this report area derived from the Beacon Report, compiled by Beacon Appraisal Group LLC of Redmond from data of the MLS of Central Oregon.
             For the 12 months ending March 31, 2026 the median single family home closing price in Bend declined from $724,500 for the comparable previous year at $719,000, a drop of $5,500 or 0.76%. During the year monthly median prices ranged from a high of $832,000 in April of last year down to a low of $680,000 in January.
            As has been the case for recent periods, sales at more than $1 million accounted for about a quarter of the total, or 25.40%, including 99 sales above $1.8 million. The largest concentration of closings, 41%, were in the $500,000 to $700,000 range.
            The number of sales in the 12 months rose from 1,622 in 2025 to 1,764 at the end of March, a 0.87% gain. The greatest number of sales were 180 in September of 2025 with a low of 83 closings in January of this year.
            In both 12 month periods the inventory held at only 3 months, confirming a pattern of tight market availability but still a month more than for several previous years.
            Just a few miles north in Redmond, the region’s second largest home market, median closing price for the 12 months through March 31 was $512,000 a drop from the $524,500 in the comparable 12 months ending in 2025, or minus 2.38%.
            Total sales in Redmond for the period dropped from 728 to 606, or more than 16% for the period. Inventory in Redmond was approximately 2.5 months, a half percentage below Bend.
            Nearly 60% (352 or 58%) of Redmond sales were grouped in a range $400,000 to $550,000 and only one was recorded at more than $1 million.