What, me worry?
The question associated with satirical
Mad Magazine’s depiction of its fictional cartoonish mascot Alfred E. Neuman may
be on a lot of minds these days.
Given the everything all at once
nature of foreign policy and the global economy no doubt many are seeking shelter
in the stormy chaos—whether it’s for relief from gas and grocery prices or
housing costs.
In all of the uncertainty those in
the investor cohort glance nervously at a record upward trajectory of the stock
market indices, if not all individual stocks, wondering if the ever rising trend, with a few precipitous
drops, are the start of a "correction," – or just the usual whipsawing
fluctuations from Trump administration policies.
In this milieu have entered the prediction
markets, where betting on virtually anything can create the very results on
which the bets are placed. And with this is raised the question of who could benefit
wagering on the conflicting news of such events as the Iran war and even the
fate Trump’s coveted White House ballroom.
Don’t forget the continuing
inflation bogeyman, with any positive trend downward likely blunted by the
uncertainty of global conflicts combined with lingering effects of tariffs.
But for many who would just like to
find an affordable home (an elusive metric) they’re just hanging on while
eyeing interest rates and job uncertainty in some cases driven by AI
displacements.
Let’s look at what the “experts” are
saying in the national macro view of the real estate markets, then take a more
granular view of how Bend and Central Oregon are weathering the ever-shifting
environment.
But parsing trends could be
difficult – as found in two entirely different reports from the same data
source:
“Pending sales of previously
owned US homes climbed for a second month in March as a pickup in
inventory helped mitigate higher borrowing costs. An index of contract
signings increased by 1.5% to a four-month high of 73.7, according to National
Association of Realtors data released Tuesday.” – Bloomberg, April 21, 2026.
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-1-5-increase-in-march
But there’s this:
“By the numbers: Existing home
sales fell 3.6% last month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98
milllion – down 1% from a year ago, according to the National Association of
Realtors.” – Axios, April 13, 2026 https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales
So what’s the real story? Take note
that the April 21 report was for “pending sales” of existing homes and the one
issues April 13 for “home sales.”
Maybe the best conclusion from this
is that the national market remains in flux with no solid direction. With all the national and global economic and foreign policy issues providing background, predicting the housing market may be as opaque as guessing Donald Trump’s next post
on his cherished Truth Social platform.
Descending from the national to the local market
maybe the best conclusion is a market adrift in terms of sales numbers and
inventory and, in terms of median prices. Prices have appeared to level out albeit at
numbers reached in the propulsion of the pandemic years. Statistics for this
report are derived from the Beacon Report, compiled by Beacon Appraisal Group LLC
of Redmond from data of the MLS of Central Oregon.
For the 12 months ending March 31, 2026 the median single family home closing price in Bend declined from $724,500 for the comparable previous year at $719,000, a drop of $5,500 or 0.76%. During the year monthly median prices ranged from a high of $832,000 in April of last year down to a low of $680,000 in January.
As has been the case for recent periods, sales at more than $1 million accounted for about a quarter of the total, or 25.40%, including 99 sales above $1.8 million. The largest concentration of closings, 41%, were in the $500,000 to $700,000 range.
The number of sales in the 12 months rose from 1,622 in 2025 to 1,764 at the end of March, a 0.87% gain. The greatest number of sales were 180 in September of 2025 with a low of 83 closings in January of this year.
In both 12 month periods the inventory held at only 3 months, confirming a pattern of tight market availability but still a month more than for several previous years.
Just a few miles north in Redmond, the region’s second largest home market, median closing price for the 12 months through March 31 was $512,000 a drop from the $524,500 in the comparable 12 months ending in 2025, or minus 2.38%.
Total sales in Redmond for the period dropped from 728 to 606, or more than 16% for the period. Inventory in Redmond was approximately 2.5 months, a half percentage below Bend.
Nearly 60% (352 or 58%) of Redmond sales were grouped in a range $400,000 to $550,000 and only one was recorded at more than $1 million.
The Multifamily Market - An overbuilt apartment market
Unlike the single family residential
market in Bend, there is little dispute about what’s happening with “multifamily," or apartments.
The market is substantially
overbuilt. Supply has far outdistanced demand. And rental rates will have to
adjust to bring a balance. Apartment owners need to consider seller financing or be willing to wait out the glut.
Those are key takeaways from a Q1
report from a leading Bend commercial brokerage, Compass Commercial.
As the author of the company’s “Compass
Points” puts it:
“If it feels like Bend is suddenly full
of vacant apartments, you’re not imagining it. 1,187
multifamily units have been delivered over the past two years, with another
1,406 under construction. Vacant inventory now exceeds 1,000 units, and at
current absorption rates, it could take up to five years to work through the
excess, assuming there’s no additional
development.”
The report notes that some of the newer more luxury projects are hardest hit. From other sources, that would appear to include the 313-unit Jackstraw, which opened in Fall of 2025 and has been slow to attract tenants. One report says the vacancy rate could be pushing 90%.
Another major project, Timber Yards, initially proposed for about 1,600 units nearby the Jackstraw by Los Angeles based Kennedy-Wilson, was put on hold, citing market conditions including interest rates. It’s now moving through the city planning process with fewer units and a different design with a smaller retail component.
Jackstraw had received a $10 million tax break from the City of Bend, which the Portland developer said was needed to make the project pencil out. The City soon after rethought the tax relief strategy.
City officials and a loosely organized YIMBY (yes in my backyard) have generally encouraged multifamily development in many areas. Including in the strategy has been the City’s quick compliance of new state regulations encouraging multiplex units in existing single family zoned neighborhoods.
Included in the new provision of the development code is the possibility of having a quadraplex built on single family lots with no requirement for off street parking. And a short-term rental (STR) would be allowed in one unit.
The STR issue has been contentious in Bend, with the code provision tightened a few years back to require greater separation of 500 feet, instead of 250 feet, between vacation units in most single family neighborhoods.
One potentially unintended result of more apartment construction is that several of the newer projects could be converted to condos under current code regulations. And is some zones, these could become nightly rental units with no distance separation requirement. The effect, some critics say, would be to compete with existing traditional lodging businesses, while doing little to increase more affordable workforce housing.
