Thursday, September 15, 2022

Bend facing land use challenges...Residents restless for action

            Hello Bend city government. Are you listening?”
            That is the admittedly tongue in cheek question that may be on the minds of many Bend residents as the city faces challenging issues of a growing homeless population and escalating housing costs while grasping for elusive solutions.
            This dilemma is recently illustrated with two projects under review by city planners, one a proposed mixed use development in a thus far all residential neighborhood, and the other to revise the code regulating controversial short term rentals, or STRs.
            In public comments on planning applications for both projects, the frustration of residents has boiled over.
            The milieu has revealed a culture in which city staff appears reticent to respond proactively to city code issues, unless having “direction,” from a council experiencing turnover in members and leadership.
            In the past year, the elected mayor and two city councilors have resigned, and the two recent council replacements have said they don’t intend to run for election in November.
            One current councilor is running for mayor against a former council member who is vowing to improve constituent communication by listening to the city’s network of volunteer neighborhood associations.
            A look at the proposed development on a lot zoned commercial convenience at the intersection of Mt. Washington Drive and NW Awbrey Road highlights a split between the council’s push for more multi-family and “middle housing,” and the character of an existing neighborhood.
            Maybe more significant, it shows how investors and developers are working to bend current development rules to fit a narrative of more needed housing density, while raising the alleged NIMBY (not in my backyard) and YIMBY (yes in my backyard) tension.
            In the past two years the project, dubbed Compass Corner, has been proposed, withdrawn, then put on hold twice -- most recently after a failure to comply with development code provisions was revealed.

The opposition to Compass Corner

            The latest delays came after more than 70% of the nearly 300 residents commenting on the project objected to it in some form—some urging that it not be considered at all, and others recommending substantial changes.
            The development team took their message to local media, resulting in one report that for and against comments were more evenly divided, and emphasizing the ostensible NIMBY – YIMBY rift over increasing housing density.
            But several detailed analyses by some of those commenting pointed city planning officials to a major flaw that had been used to justify an additional fourth floor. They argued that the ground floor lacked sufficient commercial area, that was instead taken up by substantial space for building systems such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning and the elevator shaft.
            The city planner then informed the development team of the problem, prompting a request to delay the application for slightly more than a month.
            Some observers have asked why the city had not recognized the problem earlier, perhaps saving many hours of time put in by the staff, the neighborhood association which tracked the proposal and even work of the development team.
            Instead of waiting to see what various plans the developers were proposing, couldn’t the city staff have guided the process with neighbors and the developer was a question asked.

Short Term Rentals due for code changes

            In another planning application process, city staff responded to a discussion by the city council which turned on potential ways the code provisions for short term rentals might be revised to encourage more long term rental housing.
            To that end the city STR program manager and staff conducted a survey of fewer 752 STR permit holders – under 70% of the more than 1,000. Only 44% responded. Out of that number of open ended responses, staff attempted to determine how many would consider renting long term.
            The key question asked:
            “What types of incentives would encourage you to rent to a long-term tenant (30 days or more)?
            A review of the scattered responses showed fewer than a dozen of the 300 answering that question mentioned removal of a requirement that there be a single STR rental within a 12 month period.
            Other responses cited the need for a subsidy to offset loss of higher revenue from STR rentals and changes in landlord-tenant laws regarding evicting problem tenants, among other measures that they would favor.
            Yet, with the scant comments related to removing the once in 12 months requirement, the city staff recommended a code change to accomplish that.
            A staff presentation to the Bend planning commission noted that the change would mesh with the city council’s objective to: “Reduce regulatory barriers for housing development, with an emphasis on incentivizing rent and price restricted affordable housing, middle income housing, and housing that serves vulnerable community members.”
            Another code change presented by the staff, at direction of the council, was to extend the required separation between STRs from 250 to 500 feet. In effect,  if a Type II “whole house” permit for unlimited nightly rentals were terminated, it could not be renewed if another existing Type II permit were within 500 feet.
            The planning commission went a step further and amended by a 3-2 vote September 12  for the proposed code to include any "Vacation Nightly Rental" in buffer calculation. These permits, issued before the current code effective date of April 15, 2015, were grandfathered and would not terminate if a property is sold.
            The STR section of the city development code emerged after complaints of noise, parking impacts and other problems with nightly rentals in several neighborhoods, as well as incursion of STRs into other newer and established areas of single family homes.
            A city staff presentation on the proposed code changes estimated that eligibility for new Type II STRs would be reduced from 54% of city housing areas to 34% with the new 500 foot buffer provision.


STR map if 500 ft buffer

            Written comments directed at the revisions were split between most full time residents in single family homes favoring the extended buffer as a way to reduce STRs. But owners of the  “whole house” night rentals were vigorously opposed.
            Among the objections, some STR owners pleaded that local real estate brokers had told them the value of a home with a permit could increase by $40,000 to $100,000 over comparable properties. The owners said their purchase was for an income producing investment that would be jeopardized if they decided to sell, noting the increased buffer could prevent the property’s continued use as an STR.
    Bend has been on the radar as attractive for nightly rental investors. In 2020 a Bay Area based website concluded that, "All in all, Bend is one of the best markets for Airbnb on the West Coast...a must-invest for out-of-state and Oregon Airbnb hosts."
            Objecting to the proposed code changes, a Los Angeles based STR investor wrote that...”…people like me really would appreciate our STRs staying eligible in the case of a sell—we have banked on it.”            Another out of town investor wrote he had, “….factored in the value an STR permit..” adds to property values.
            “Our realtor indicated that it can be upwards of $40k in desirable neighborhoods. We used this information when making our offer and knowingly paid over-asking because of this value boost for an STR-eligible property."
            Noting the code change would wipe out equity in his investment, the owner added:
            “Speaking for myself, this means we will need to hold onto our property longer than originally planned in order to make up for this lost money.”
            The idea of STR-permitted properties as lucrative investments was supported in code change comments by the political committee of the Central Oregon Association of Realtors.
            Voicing opposition to the extended 500 foot distance between STRs, the Realtors wrote that, “…the ability to periodically rent a home is an important, and increasingly common, criterion for home buyers within the City.”
           The Bend city council  will have a first reading and public hearing on the measures at an October 5 session.
            The following evening after the planning commission action, STRs were prominently on the agenda of the Neighborhood Leadership Alliance. It includes representatives of neighborhood associations throughout the city which are intended to act as sounding boards for government leaders.
            That discussion leaned to the modest effect the code change to reduce the once in 12 months nightly rental requirement would have on increasing long term rentals. Although the code presentation memo by staff cited city council goals to create workforce housing, the lead staff planner conceded that the change was not intended to improve housing affordability but could increase overall inventory.

Original STR Regulations Aimed to protect neighborhood integrity

             A city staff attorney at the Alliance meeting explained that the original STR code created in 2015 was not focused on housing affordability.
            Instead, “…the focus then was on neighborhoods, preserving the good things ….it was about neighborhood integrity, character, balancing all of these things. The regulatory structure was created around that.”
            With the STR buffer extension,the city predicts there will be fewer new Type II limited nightly rental permits as existing ones are terminated at the time of sale if there are others within 500 feet.
            But in the background are other two other issues of the STR code that many residents have urged the city to address.
            One is the so-called “transfer loophole.”
            As written in 2015, the code specifically states that STR permits “do not run with the land,” and therefore cannot be transferred. However, a so-called “transfer loophole” allows a property seller with a STR permit to void it, then apply on behalf of a buyer even before the sale closes.
            This is a frequent tactic that results in property buyers being enticed by real estate brokers with the prospect of acquiring a property with a permit.
            A number of comments regarding the newly proposed code changes urged the city to also look at closing the transfer loophole. This would further eliminate some STRs even if they were in locations at 500 feet or more from another at the time of sale.
            Critics of the existing STR provisions say the city should do more to thwart permit applicants from violating the covenants, conditions and restrictions, CCRs, of neighborhoods. But the city has repeatedly said it cannot interfere with “private contracts,” a position that most legal analysis supports.
            However, some have argued that a current stipulation that STR applicants acknowledge by signature they have read neighborhood CCRs should be strengthened to “affirm” a permit would not be a violation. Many CCRs prohibit rentals of fewer than 30 days in single family neighborhoods.
            Even so, a city attorney has said he would like to put more distance between the city and any relationship to CCRs by merely “suggesting” that an applicant read them.
            That position has been taken in the city planning staff responses to those commenting on both the Compass Corner apartment project off NW Awbrey Road and the proposed STR code changes.
            In effect, the only alternative is for either a Homeowners Association, or HOA, or lacking the latter, an individual property owner to take legal action to enforce the CCRs.

PREVIOUS POSTS ON SHORT TERM RENTALS

Tourism and neighborhood nightly rentals: Bend struggles with the issues

 Get out those CCRs- renewed focus on short term rentals and multi-family units

Tuesday, August 16, 2022

Reading Mixed Signals on the Economy and Real Estate

           Recession on the horizon, or not; inverted yield curve; flattened yield curve; blockbuster job numbers; GDP dropping, CPI escalating etc. etc.
           
The prognosticator economists trying to wrap their heads around “the metrics,” are proving one trope attributed to playright George Bernard Shaw - 

           
“If all the economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion.”

           
To be fair, the signals, as they’re called, that often portend shifts in the economy are at the very least a mixed bag.

           
Take the high level of employment, many jobs available and still others going wanting for applicants. And higher wages.
        But even with the jobs bounty and attractive wages, productivity per employee is down. And those wages are being cancelled out in part by inflation, especially in essentials such as fuel and food.
How this impacts real estate nationally, and locally in Central Oregon, in the longer term is, as that acronym goes, TBD.
           
As previously reported in early June, there were already signs of a cooling, albeit slight, of the Bend residential real estate market.
         

Bend real estate changes: crash, correction or moderation?

            That post noted a rise in price reductions, (with euphemisms such as “improved price,”) of listed single family homes, as well as more open houses. Such changes were nearly absent in the heated environment of multiple offers and bidding wars of 2021.
            Now, a report through the first seven months of 2022, well into the traditionally more active warmer “selling season,” gives a broader view of the year and its comparison with 2021.
          The Beacon Appraisal Group reports for the first seven months of 2022 through July show that median Bend single family home prices began to level off while inventory continued to edge upward.
            For the month of July, the median sale price of a single family home on less thatn one acre dropped to $722,000 from $740,000 in June, and was off from the yearly high of $773,000.



            On a rolling 12 month basis, the median from August 1 of 2021 through July 31 of 2022 was $702,500. That represented a rise of  $125,000, or 22%  from the same 12 month period of 2021 to 2022, when the median was $577,500.
            There were 2313 sales for the 12 months beginning August of 2021 and 397 active listings at the end of July this year. Nearly half, 1,105, sales were n the $450,000 to $650,000 range. There were 182 sales above $1 million.
            Since the close of April this year inventory as calculated by averaging 12

Top: a timid price drop; Bottom, more serious

month sales has crept up from 1.0 in April to 1.3 in May, 1.9 in June and 2.0 months at the end of July. Total July sales dropped to 175 in Bend from the high of 218 for the year in May.
            In Redmond, Central Oregon’s 2nd largest market segment, the median monthly sale price was $491,500, up $115,000, or 31%, from the $376,000 median for the previous 12 month period. July’s median was $505,000, a drop from $530,000 in June and below the single month high for the period of $538,000 in April.
            Redmond recorded 943 sales over the 12 months and had inventory of 1.7 month at the end of July, up from 1.2 months in June.
            Even with a subtle change,none of the numbers contained the the Beacon Report, based on the MLS of Central Oregon database, provide much encouragement for alleviating the region’s housing affordability crunch for many wage earners.
            State of Oregon regional economist Damon Runberg was quoted in a report by KTVZ Channel 21 that Bend is one of the least affordable areas of the state.
            He pointed out that Deschutes County’s average monthly wage of about $4,940 per month translates to a family spending nearly 60% of their income on housing based on a 30-year mortgage at 5.5% for an averaged priced home in the mid $700,000s.
            On the national level, the National Association of Homebuilders reported its member survey showed about 19% of builders are cutting prices in August, up from only 13% in July.
            A Redfin report said sales of 16% of existing homes that went into contract in July fell through. And nationally sales of existing homes fell 6% from June to July, and were 20% below the same month of 2021.
    
        An economist for Realtor.com, the listing site for the National Association of Realtors, raised the possibility of a market shift not seen in several years.“The housing market is resetting in a buyer-friendly direction,” Danielle Hale wrote on August 12.
            But given the continuing scant inventory in Bend and Redmond, still 2 months below the accepted 4-6 months of a balanced market, Central Oregon buyers might wait a while to really feel a more "friendly" trend.

Thursday, June 23, 2022

Bend real estate changes: crash, correction or moderation?

 The changes have been slight, only one here and another there.
            But the mere sighting of a price reduction in Bend’s single family home listings is enough to get attention in  a protracted sellers market.
            Now, moving into the traditional “selling season” of late Spring and early Summer more and more listings are notable with those euphemistic broker talk phrases such as “price adjustment” and “new price,” or "improved price." And in some cases the straightforward, unambiguous, “price reduced.”
           Open houses hosted by brokers have also reemerged, after nearly disappearing in a heated market environment where multiple buyers would bid on properties before they hit the local multiple listing service.
            Another slight but potentially significant sign: Bend single family home inventory for May reached 1.3 months. Albeit not a monumental number of available homes--and well short of the 4-6 months considered a balanced market—this was still double the 0.5 months supply the same month last year.
            Prices also dipped since April, down from a median of $770,000 to $740.000. But that was 17.8% over the $628,000 median the same month of 2021.
            The statistics are gleaned from the Multiple Listing Service of Central Oregon database as reported by Beacon Appraisal Group.
            As a micro market Bend and Central Oregon may not fit neatly into the marcro national market. But it’s unlikely the region’s substantial recreation and lifestyle attractions will keep it insulated from some of the same emerging headwinds.

            This has happened before. Looking back, on the eve of the Great Recessoin, as it is now enshrined, a top producing Bend broker optimistically said, “we’re different, it won’t happen here.”
            In a local television interview, the broker confidently commented that Bend’s attractions would keep it from plummeting into the abyss as was occurring across the country. Leading up to that year Bend, including Deschutes and neighboring counties, had topped the federal Federal Financing Housing Agency’s list as the highest home appreciation metro statistical area.
            Barely a year later Bend had fallen to near the bottom in housing appreciation of the approximately 300 MSAs tracked by the federal agency.
            One factor now driving the national market is a dramatic increase in lending rates. As of June 16, the federal housing agency Freddie Mac reported that average 30-year mortgages had risen to 5.78%, a major jump from the approximately 3.5% in early March.
        

            Even with downward “price adjustments” in Bend homes, the increase in mortgage payments of several hundred dollars will continue to challenge many younger Bend families struggling to buy a home.

            One variable that could prop up Bend’s market is the ratio of cash buyers, even as median prices ratchet upward. Beacon Appraisal’s analysis shows that 35% of Bend single family closings in May were all cash transactions, indicating those buyers are solvent enough to avoid financing and higher loan costs.
            Perhaps tamping down the Bend in-migration could be the cooling of what already has its own acronym,the WFH, or “work from home” movement. In turn that has spawned another acronym, BTO, or “back to the office” as some companies are requiring Covid distanced workers to get back to their desks.
            An interesting anecdote comes from a broker in one of Washington state’s premier remote working environments, where a remote working day could be prefaced with a quick ski in winter, mountain bike in summer, or even a kayak on a lake after putting in the time.
            The broker was representing a couple who had worked remotely during Covid from a small cabin, then decided to move up with a larger home purchase. The buyers were well-qualified with good incomes, but the bank decided to verify details in a call to their employer. It turned out there was a glitch – the company was bringing employess back to the office, and those who wanted to continue remote working would face a pay cut. The sale did not go through.
            Closer to home some appraisers, not Beacon Appraisal cited earlier, say they’re seeing obvious changes, while maybe slight, that could portend a new era in regional housing.
            
One appraiser offered that sellers are having a difficult time grasping the changes from only a few months ago.
            “The largest current struggle IMO is getting sellers to price their home to the changing market. People simply cannot believe that their neighbor sold for $x and they have the same home, but should list for lower than that.”
            Another view comes from a leading brokerage team with the largest real estate office in Bend. Their view as expressed in a recent post and podcast is that the market is “moderating” toward being more normal – neither a crash or a correction.
            Also difficult to factor in, either locally or nationally, is the sudden braking of what has been a continuing bull market for stocks.
            Even during the pandemic, stocks were hardly affected. Then came the war in Ukraine, bringing higher inflation and the Federal Reserve’s admittedly delayed response in raising interest rates.
            Now those with once-healthy 401K portfolios are looking nervously at the future, perhaps attracted by higher treasury yields as insurance against any unforeseen calamities. Merged with the uncertainty over midterm elections, intractable political divisiveness fueled even more by election deniers and many people may just want to take a break, wait it out to see what happens.
            Here area some data points and comments on the national market:

·         The National Association of Realtors reports home sales were down 8.6% in May from the same month of 2021.

·          New rents on single family homes rose 14% May 2022 compared with May 2021.

·         NAR says there’s still only a 2-6 months supply of homes across the country, but that’s up 33% since February.

Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Q1 2022: Prices continue upward with low inventory

             Predictable. No surprises. More of the same.
            Those are some of the likely responses of anyone monitoring the Bend and Central Oregon real state market, which has been in an upward arc for months. Or make that years.
            The latest numbers come from Beacon Appraisal Group of Redmond, based on tablulations by the MLS of Central Oregon covering Deschutes, Crook and Jefferson counties.
            In the first quarter of 2022 the median price of a single family home sold in Bend rose to $773,000, a nearly 4.45% jump over the $740,000 in February and 13.17% more than the $683,000 in January.
            On a rolling 12 months basis from the end of March 2021 through March 2022, the median price rose by $115,000, from $535,000 to $650,500, or 22%, over the previous March 2020 through March 2021 period.
            There were 2,503 sales for the 12 months, with only 132 listings at the end of the period. Calculated by averaging sales for the 12 months, the inventory based on current listings in a scant 0.6 months.



            Viewing sales by price groupings, 57.69% of units sold were in the $400,000 to $700,000 range. There were only 100 sales lower than $400,000, and only four listings under that at the end of March this year.
            The number of $1 million plus sales continued upward, with 391 above that and 70 of more than $1.8 million.
            In Redmond, the median price for March of 2022 was $520,000, a rise of 7.66% from February. The rolling 12 months median for Redmond was $450,000, 24% over the $363,500 for the previous comparable period.

Redmond

            Redmond had 1,056 sales in the 12 months and only 55 listings at the end of March, translating to an inventory of only 0.6 months, the same as Bend.
            There were 58% of Redmond sales in the $350,000 to $500,000 range and none above $1 million.
            Although Redmond’s 12 months median price of $450,000 was 30% lower than Bend’s, the smaller city to the north had only a single listing under $400,000 at the end of March, even lower than Bend’s four in that range.

The smaller submarkets

            In the smaller submarkets tracked by Beacon Appraisal and the MLS of Central Oregon, single family sales totaled 1,140, with Crook County leading the group at 333 closings.
            Also included in the smaller submarkets are Sisters, Sunriver, La Pine and Jefferson County (including Madras and Crooked River Ranch).
            Sunriver – including the resort complex of Sunriver Resort, Caldera Springs and Crosswater – had the highest median price mark in the first quarter of 2022, at $885,000, with 33 recorded sales.
            Sisters was next with a median of $667,000 on 38 sales, followed by La Pine, $452,000 on 51 sales; Crook County, $390,000, 70 sales; and Jefferson County, $356,000, 62 sales.
            Inventory in the smaller submarkets ranged from a low of only 0.12 months in Sunviver to 1.5 months in Jefferson County. La Pine has a 1.2 months supply and Crook County 1.3.

Tuesday, April 5, 2022

The Drought Worsens: Another summer of crop and wildfire problems expected

 Update: Significant new snowfall of nearly four feet  that began April 8 in the high country will result in new snowpack information for the Oregon Cascades and Deschutes Basin. As of early April 12 the NRCS Snotel gauges at Three Creeks Meadow showed that snowpack had increased from 84% of median on April 4 to 91%, and that snow water equivalent rose to 30% of median from 16%. Early April 14 Mt. Bachelor ski area reported 43 inches in the past seven days and a base of 104 inches, the first time over 100 inches this ski season. Water resource officials say it's not likely the new snowfall will substantially alleviate coming summer drought conditions.

            First the good news: It rained April 4 in lower elevations and snowed up to a foot in the higher country. Mt. Bachelor touted 10 inches overnight to freshen the slopes.
            Now the bad news: It is unlikely that even an unseasonably wet April and May will bring much relief to drought conditions that are only worsening as much of Central Oregon heads into summer. 
                
A look at the federal Drought Monitor map for Oregon as of March 31 shows the state and Nevada are the only ones in the western United States with counties experiencing “exceptional” drought – the driest conditions reported.

            All told 15.01% of Oregon is in the exceptional category and 88% rated as being from severe to exceptional. East of the Cascades only portions of several counties along the northern border escape being in the severe or worse drought categories.
            Crook County is the only one of all the counties entirely in the exceptional category. But significant chunks of Deschutes, Jefferson, Lake and Klamath join Crook in having the worst conditions.



            Notably, California is experiencing overall the worst drought conditions in the nation with the entire state in a range of severe to exceptional drought. But none of the state is listed as in exceptional drought.
            The federal drought monitor is a project of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska, with data collected from cooperating federal agencies including the US Department of Agriculture, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Department of Commerce.
            Also offering scant evidence that drought conditions will improve is data on snowpack and its moisture content, or snow water equivalent, reported by the Natural Resources Conservation Service, part of the federal agriculture department.
            The NRCS’ Snotel location for Three Creeks Meadows registered a snowpack of 84% of the median. But the water content of the snowpack was only 16% of median.
            The daunting outlook for summer has already resulted in the Governor’s drought declarations for Jefferson, Crook and Klamath counties, the latter which has resulted in massive acreage lying fallow in recent years due to climate and endangered species issues. Deschutes County has also declared a drought and is waiting for the Governor’s action, which will unlock some relief in the form of subsidies to haul livestock water, ability to tap groundwater wells and graze land placed in conservation.
            Apart from the agricultural impacts the dry conditions have already prompted warnings from wildfire management agencies to brace for an active summer season that could begin early earlier than usual and extend longer.
Eager shredders at the lift line April 14


            Jefferson County has (or had) Central Oregon’s most productive agricultural lands before the continuing drought of the past few years. The North Unit Irrigation District which manages irrigation water in much of Jefferson County has cut allocation to 0.45 acre feet of water per acre, from the Deschutes River system, and 0.225 from the Crooked River.
           
An acre foot is the amount of water required to cover an acre of land to a depth of one foot, or approximately 326,000 gallons.
            As reported by The Bulletin of Bend the allotment is the lowest in district history and only one-fourth of an average year.
            The North Unit district, and its growers and livestock ranchers, are at the mercy not only of overarching climatic conditions but also challenges to manage water releases from the region’s dams to protect the endangered spotted frog.
            And the North Unit’s water rights are junior to those of the Central Oregon Irrigation District, most of whose members use water primarily for hay production rather than higher value food crops.
           
Most of the irrigation water in the Deschutes and Crooked River basins comes from snowmelt and is captured in upstream reservoirs.


            A look at the early season levels in several reservoirs emphasizes the remarkable obstacles confronting water users this summer.
           
On April 5 Wickiup Reservoir, which holds water for North Unit junior water rights irrigators, was at 55% capacity, holding 110,244 acre feet compared with 115,403 the same time last year and 42% below historic average.
           
By contrast, Crane Prairie Reservoir, which holds water for COID’s senior rights, above Wickiup on the Deschutes River, was 85% full at 49,967 acre feet, only slightly below 2021 at 45,298 and ahead of the 42,406 acre feet average.
            Recognizing the distortion between senior and water rights, COID officials have been encouraging its members who do not need water for the coming season to, in effect, contribute it for the benefit of North Unit irrigators.
            Oregon water law permits water rights to be returned “instream” for habitat and fish conservation, which can also free water for use by junior rights holders. New efforts are underway to create a "water bank" that could theoretically provide a market to provide the resource to where the need is greater.

 Previous

DROUGHT: The glass lower than half empty made even worse with a June heatwave

Another drought season in the works: Low snowpack and reservoirs

 Snowpack, water and endangered species - A complicated calculus


Fact Sheet of Draft EIS for the Deschutes Basin HCP

Complete DRAFT HCP as of August 2019

A Timeline of the Spotted Frog ESA listing in the Deschutes Basin