Central Oregon jobs picture: positive but still digging out of recession

            First the good news: Central Oregon is out front among Oregon regions in job growth.

            Now the not so good: It could take another eight years, until 2022, for the region to exceed the total jobs in the region in pre-recession 2007.

            This scenario of where the region has been, is now and might be heading is contained in the Oregon Employment Department report  from regional economist  Damon Runberg.

            The report says regional employment--including Deschutes, Jefferson and Crook counties--should grow by 16% from a base year of 2012 in the decade to  2022.  State growth is projected to be 15%/

            Altogether the region should add more than 12,000 jobs by 2022, the highest number nearly 2,500 in healthcare and related fields, followed by tourism oriented employment with more than 2,100.

Improvement in the local housing market with new construction jobs and growth in retail and hospitality employment from tourism should also continue to boost the regional jobs picture, the report concludes.

            However, by 2022 the region will likely have created only 1% more jobs (940) more than it had in 2007.

            “Even with strong employment gains in 2013 the region’s employment levels remain far below their peal levels before the recession. Deschutes County lost more than 11,000 jobs during the recession,” the report says. “By the end of 2013 only 4,900 of those jobs were recovered.”

City of Bend could take big loss in boom years investment

            There is no shortage of Bend area real estate horror stories with the opening chapters often set in the 2005-2008 boom period.

            With a recently announced sale it’s apparent that the City of Bend is among those faced with the reality of what happens when a bubble bursts.

            Consider the case of a leading homebuilder’s purchase of 17 acres in Sisters for $5.6 million, then completely finishing the lots for an 85 unit subdivision before having to give it back to the bank after building only four homes.

            In stepped a patient investor who purchased the unbuilt lots for $2.4 million, leaving the bank with a major writeoff.

            In a premium gated community north of Bend a California buyer paid more than $1.1 million for a single home site. In 2012 a national bank agreed to a short sale at $215,000. The original loan was more than $700,000.

            Entire subdivisions in east Bend were left to sprout invasive weeds, which on the positive side may have slightly reduced the volume of blowing dust. But now with the market gaining momentum many of these are neighborhoods of new homes that sell before completion. 

            As for the City of Bend, its 2005 purchase of the 3.1 acre former Bend Bulletin newspaper site, at the northeast corner of Wall Street and Revere Avenue, for $4.8 million appears headed to a 60% loss, according to a report in The Bulletin.
            The city had acquired the site from Taylor Brothers LLC in 2005, which had purchased it in 2002  from Brooks Resources. Western Communications, parent of The Bulletin, had traded the property to Brooks in 2002 after the newspaper's operations were relocated.

            In a decision Wednesday evening, the Bend City Council accepted an offer by Getz Properties LLC--developer of the east side Forum Center with Costco, Barnes & Noble, Safeway and Whole Foods-- to purchase the property for $1.9 million. 
            The Bulletin also reported that the city still owes $2.1 million on the property with a $700,000 principal payment and $75,000 interest due in June.

            The terms give the city $50,000 in nonrefundable earnest money but allow Getz several months of due diligence. The site is zoned to allow 55-foot tall buildings and mixed use that could include retail, office and residential.

            At the time it was purchased the council had envisioned the site as having the potential to extend the downtown core. Only one member of that council is still on the current one, and a new member was quoted as saying the city “...paid way too much money for it, for a purpose it turned out was not feasible for that site.”
            The city has also had a rough time with its 1,500 acre Juniper Ridge project, to which it had hoped to attract a university and research-oriented firms. Instead the planned OSU-Cascades 4-Year campus will be built on a 56 acre site on Bend's west side.(See posts below)

           

 The history of the city's attempt to sell the former Bulletin newspaper site

Date	Time	New Status	Old Status	New Price	Old Price	Selling Date	DOM	Change Type
03/06/14	11:59:59 pm	Expired	Active	2,278,406	2,278,406		1530	Status
03/07/13	11:34:04 am	Active	Expired	2,278,406	2,278,406		1166	Status
02/14/13	11:59:59 pm	Expired	Active	2,278,406	2,278,406		1166	Status
10/01/12	10:58:25 am	Active	Expired	2,278,406	2,278,406		1030	Status
08/14/12	11:59:59 pm	Expired	Active	2,278,406	2,278,406		1030	Status
06/29/12	3:25:27 pm	Active	Active	2,278,406	3,500,000		984	Price
09/09/11	3:31:37 pm	Active	Expired	3,500,000	3,500,000		690	Status
08/14/11	11:59:59 pm	Expired	Active	3,500,000	3,500,000		690	Status
08/27/10	5:58:07 pm	Active	Expired	3,500,000	3,900,000		338	Price/Status
08/14/10	11:59:59 pm	Expired	Active	3,900,000	3,900,000		338	Status
09/14/09	4:06:08 pm	Active		3,900,000	0		0	New

OSU-Cascades 4-Year Campus closes on first phase land

City of Bend gets a taste of market challenges

 

 

           

Resort properties on the rebound with sales and new construction

With multiple golf courses, recreational trails and access to the scenic mountains, rivers and forests on the “dry side” of the Cascades, Central Oregon has staked a position as the state’s, and the Northwest’s, premier tourism and vacation home destination.

It’s generally acknowledged that the region has seven of Oregon’s nine major destination resorts, with the other two--Salishan and Bandon Dunes--on the Pacific coast.

            And as the economy, including real estate, continues to climb out of a deep hole the region’s surviving new resorts are showing the potential that was in the dreams of their original founders-- albeit some are now under new or restructured ownership.

            Among the regional resorts, several new ones that emerged in the beginning decade of  2000 enjoyed a rapid rise, in sales and real estate prices, as new golf courses were designed by such notables as Nicklaus, Fazio, McClay-Kidd and Peterson-Hardy. But when the air started leaking out of the balloon, they sputtered back to reality.

            Brasada Ranch in the Powell Butte area of Crook County, Pronghorn along Powell Butte Highway between Bend and Redmond and Tetherow in Deschutes county, abutting Bend’s southwest city limits, have all ended up wholly or in part under new ownership forced by financial distress.

            On the other hand, Black Butte Ranch, Sunriver and Eagle Crest--the region’s three “original” destination resorts--weathered the downturn and are regaining traction, along with the new Caldera Springs, under ownership also affiliated with Sunriver.

Not included in the resort list are Crosswater, a private gated golf community adjacent to Sunriver, and the Running Y Ranch 140  miles south near Klamath Falls.  However both have present or past connections to ownership entities still active in Central Oregon.

Boom properties fell the hardest - (Refer to table below)

In Pronghorn and Brasada Ranch, the largest new resorts,  many building lots have been sold at half or less of their 2005-2008 prices when the projects caught an early, unsustainable wave of buying characteristic across the region and in large part driven by then skyrocketing real estate returns in neighborhing California.

For example, in Pronghorn individual lots sold from a low of $350,000 up to a premium lot on the Tom Fazio deisgned course for $1,100,000 in late 2008. In 2011 a lot on the 5^th Fairway of the Jack Nicklaus course sold for only $6,000, although a golf membership priced at $115,000 was required at closing.

At Brasada Ranch, developed by door and window manufacturer Jeld-Wen, the top lot sale was a 0.65 acre lot at $523,000 in April of 2008. In February of 2012 a bank owned 0.57 acre site sold for $12,500.

Pronghorn is now controlled by The Resort Group, an Hawaii based group, which reportedly acquired deeply-discounted existing debt from lenders to the previously troubled project, now  rebranded as an Auberge Resort. In its boom days Pronghorn developers boasted it was the first property to have golf courses designed by both Jack Nicklaus and Tom Fazio.

The permitting by Deschutes County for both Pronghorn and Tetherow required the developers to build a percentage of nightly lodging relative to home sites. Both received several extension reprieves by county officials who cited the continued adverse economy.

But in 2013, new ownership of both projects announced plans to move ahead with the lodging requirement.

Tetherow is well underway on construction of an initial 50 hotel suites adjacent to the original golf clubhouse and restaurant.

Pronghorn developers said  in November construction will get begin in 2014 on a 105-room hotel, to be branded and managed by Auberge, along with expansion of  an existing spa facility.

An architectural illustration of Pronghorn's planned 105 room hotel

Brasada Ranch experienced challenges from the flagging economy as well. Before starting Brasada, Jeld-Wen, a successful window and door manufacturer based in Klamath County, had entered the resort business in the 1980s with Eagle Crest near Redmond. Much of the original resort was marketed by Jeld-Wen affiliate Trendwest as time share interests.

The company extended its resort development into Washington state with the 6,000 plus acre Suncadia Resort, originally MountainStar, only 90 miles east on Interstate 90 from Seattle. And it also built the 3,600 acre Running Y Ranch golf resort near Klamath Falls.

Faced with unfavorable conditions in the building industry, Jeld-Wen in 2012 sold Eagle Crest, Brasasa Ranch and the Running Y to Northview Financial, headed by former hospitality executives and backed by Oaktree Capital. Jeld-Wen also relinquished ownership in Suncadia and was later acquired by a Canadian building products company.

Northview has since launched an aggressive marketing program for Brasada and announced plans to upgrade conference and other facilities at Eagle Crest. Several months ago Northview listed the Running Y for sale with a Seattle brokerage and cited the substantial investment it had made in the resort.Running Y Ranch resort on the market block

Sunriver-setting the early standard

Sunriver Resort, arguably the best known Oregon destination resort, continues to lead the region in lodging occupancy and other hospitality industry categories. The resort was conceived in the 1970s on the former WWII Camp Abbott site, 17 miles south of Bend, by former timber industry industrialist John Gray. 

In 1992 Lowe Enterprises acquired the resort from Connecticut Mutual Life Insurance, which had bought it from Gray in 1972. Lowe subsequently brought in investment capital through a limited partnership under PacTrust-- intially formed as a real estate investment trust of US Bank and now controlled by Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts.

Under this ownership, affiliated entities of PacTrust have developed the private Crosswater golf community, host to NCAA championships and other major tournaments, as well as Caldera Springs, immediately across from Crosswater. 
       There were 148 single family home sales for 2013  within Sunriver resort at a median price of $364,000 and a total sales volume $60,432,294, compared with 144 sales at $347,500 on volume of $54,901,335 in 2012.
       In the “boom” years from 2004 through 2009 Sunriver recordded 918 single family sales at a median price of $474,500 and volume of $491,604,176--easily surpassing any other Central Oregon resort and second home community. 

Tetherow - leading the new resorts

Although faced with a maze of different controlling interests, Tetherow’s clubhouse and golf course owners have joined a Portland investor to move ahead with new lodging. Elsewhere in the project, sales of townhomes and lots have been brisk, ramping up in 2012 and accelerating throughout 2013.

Construction underway on Tetherow lodging

In it’s startup phase Tetherow notched 51  lot sales from 2006-2009 at prices from $225,000 to $775,000, peaking with 35 sales on volume of $20,003,000 in 2008, then dropping to only two sales in 2009 and none in 2010.

Sales picked up in 2011, with seven sales at a median of $199,000 before rising to 20 on a median of $182,500 in 2012 and more than doubling that with 41 in 2013, and a median of $210,000. Another nine sales were pending in early February.

Unlike Tetherow and Pronghorn, Sunriver and Black Butte Ranch are  mature resorts, and much larger with fewer potential lot sales within the original master plans. However, with development of Caldera Springs, the Sunriver ownership has added to its buildable land inventory.

Black  Butte Ranch, developed in the 1970s by Brooks Resources, originally the real estate subsidiary of the former Brooks-Scanlon logging company, is constrained within its initial footprint, and limited by decisions of a board required to seek approval by a vote of homeowners to expand.

In recent years Black Butte expansion proposals have aroused opposition, although homeowners did in 2013 vote to  improve common facilities such as the main lodge amenities, athletic facilities, restaurants and the two golf courses.

Reflecting the scarcity of buildable home sites at Black Butte Ranch there were only two sales of $260,00  and $ 287,500 in  2012 and 2013. In early February there were three active lot listings priced from $199,000 to $549,000 and a pending sale at $259,000.

In early February Sunriver had 16 lot listings ranging from $143,00 to $460,000, and recorded  13 sales in 2012 -2013 from $124,500 to $275,000.

Experts are positive on 2^nd home-resort markets

The national trend is for continued expansion of the hospitality real estate sector, incuding resorts and second homes, according to a report by the CoStar Group, commercial real estate information company.

CoStar quotes Arthur Adler, managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle’s Hotel and Hospitality Group:

"This is a good time to be a hotel investor and owner as we expect several more years of strong and growing fundamentals," Adler said. "Hotel fundamentals will continue to be driven by growing business and leisure travel in major gateway markets, as well as in secondary markets and resort destinations throughout the Americas. We are optimistic about the near- and long-term prospects for the industry.” 

Another report by RCLCo, the respected national industry advisory service founded as Robert Charles Lesser Co. in 1967, is also positive on the second home market, often linked with resort properties.

In a headline “Most likely to Succeed (Eventually); Second Home/Resort,” the company’s new “sentiment report” notes:

“As with all land uses, second home/resort has seen steady growth through recovery, although current sentiment levels are somewhat below 1Q 2013 expectations.Consistent with the more cyclical nature of the 2nd home/resort industry compared with real estate overall, respondents’ high hopes for second home/resort in the coming year have not been dampened. In fact, respondents are expecting more forward motion from second/home resort in the next year than all other land uses, with the exception of for-sale residential.”

(Statistics in the table below are derived from the Multiple Listing Service of Central Oregon database and deemed reliable but not guaranteed. The information shows overall trends among regional resorts and may not reflect all activity, depending on whether some internal developer transfers or sales were not recorded with MLS, or other variables).

OSU-Cascades 4-Year Campus closes on first phase land

            OSU-Cascades 4-Year campus moved another step closer in early February with university officials closing the $5 million purchase of the initial 10 acres of a planned 56 acre complex at the corner of SW Century Drive and SW Chandler Avenue on Bend’s west side.

            Also related to the first 10-acre phase, to include academic and on-campus living facilities, the university and the City of Bend have signed a memorandum of understanding that addresses land use and development application procedures.

            Purchase of the 10 acres was completed nearly simultaneously with OSU-Cascades announcement that it has raised $4.6 million in private funding, exceeding its goal  to match $4 million in university bond funds. The legislature has also approved $16 million in general obligation state bonds for the 4-year expansion.

            Meanwhile the 4-year campus plan has aroused some public concern over transportation and housing impacts on the city’s west side. The university has said it wants to encourage more on-campus living and public transportation while city officials plan to review ordinances that would apply to multiple occupant rental housing.
            Engineers are also studying other issues, including how soils in the former pumice mine site comprising the remaining 46 acres would handle water runoff.

            The university has scheduled  public meetings on the project, the first for Feb. 27 from 5:30 to 7:00 pm and another Feb. 28, from noon to 1:30 pm in Cascades Hall of the Central Oregon Community College campus.

Previous posts on the OSU-Cascades 4-Year campus quest

·  OSU 4-Year Campus Effort (5)

Plutonomy and the Central Oregon million dollar home

            How was Davos? The skiing? Presentations? Good schmoozing? Close any big deals?

            If you didn't make Davos you’re either not among the global economic elite, nor in the legion of consultants, reporters, paparazzi and G5 crews who tag along to the World Economic Forum in the exclusive Swiss enclave.

            The economic impact of the Davos attendees, and those similarly situated financially, has revived a term, “plutonomy” that gained cachet back in the boom days of 2005 with a report by Citigroup analysts.

            In  “Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Imbalances,” the lead report author Ajay Kapur coined the term that in 2014 has emerged again to define an economy dependent on the rich more than the not so.

            A recent CNBC segment noted that with substantial gains in equities over the past few years the wealthy 1% (that overused but familiar term) now account for 95% of income, and that 5% contribute 38% of consumption. That’s the plutonomy, for which there are presumably plutonomists to help sort it all out.

            With a robust equities market the past few years, one trend has been for more flush investors to take profits that in turn flow to high-end real estate, art, yachts and maybe a couple of those new Ghibli Maseratis that debuted in Super Bowl XLVII commercials.

            In major urban areas such as New York City and Los Angeles there are reports of a competitive buying frenzy in the $1 million and more residential real estate segment.

            A January 30 article in the Los Angeles Times reported 39,145 homes sold for more than $1 million in the state last year, a 45% increase and the highest number since 2007. But the overall California market rose only 0.6%  the Times noted.

            In the Northwest’s largest urban area, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported there were 1,426 sales of homes at more than $1 million in King County, which includes Seattle, up more than 50% over the previous year.

            Among the top Seattle-area sales was a home in Medina, Microsoft chairman Bill Gates’ suburban neighborhood, for $9.75 million, and a penthouse condo downtown for $6.2 million.

            So how does this relate to real estate in Central Oregon?

In a capsule, the million dollar home market has grown modestly in the region, but  is a very thin slice of the whole pie. (refer to table below).

Statistics from the Multiple Listing Serivce of Central Oregon show there were  45 sales at more than $1 million in all of Central Oregon in 2013, or 0.09% of the 4,393 total. The sales volume of $57,283,576 was 4.46% of the total $1,285,972,542 volume throughout the market.

In the greater Bend area (including Tumalo to the west and Alfalfa east) there were 37 residential single family home sales at more than $1 million the past year, or 1.44% of 2,554 total sales and 5.39% -- $45,876,276 -- of the $851,270,643 total volume.

Compare those statistics to the nearly 65% of homes sold in Bend in the range of $200,000 through $499,000, and 54% across the region.

Looking back to the bubble years Central Oregon, sales of million dollar residences peaked in 2007, when 135 homes closed at $1 million plus, 4.40% of all sales, on volume of $191,286,666, which was 15.35% of the total dollars in residential sales.

By 2009 the million dollar sales dropped to 41, only 1.27% of all closings, and 6.99% of volume.