Friday, January 22, 2016

2015 Central Oregon real estate by price segments-Luxury in good supply, tight in lower-mid ranges



            For a buyer seeking a high-end single family home on the market at more than $1 million in Bend there are ample choices.
            But if something  “affordable” from $200,000 to $400,000 is more budget friendly to a buyer, then supply is thinner and the competition stiffer.
            For all of 2015 there were 59 sales of single family homes in the greater Bend MLS area, including Tumalo to the west and Alfalfa to the east, on all lot sizes-- with a top sale at $2,150,00 and median sale price of $1,225,000. The “luxury” homes were on the market for a median of 105 days.
            A 12-month average of 6.66 homes were sold at more than $1 million in 2015. As of mid-January 2016 there were 80 listings in that price range, or a 12 month inventory.
            Generally that hefty  inventory would signal a buyers market. However, in that upper price segment  buyers can be more picky than in the lower tier, with some opting to buy a lot and build to their specific criteria.
            On the lower end of the spectrum there were 1,747 sales in a range of $200,000 to $400,000 last year, at a median of $291,180 in that price segment.
Those homes were on the market a median of 80 days.
            And by mid-January there was a scant 1.25 months supply in the lower price range, an unequivocal signal of a robust sellers market that often results in competitive bidding among buyers.

            Some other key points in the 2015 numbers:
  • More than 75% of all Bend single family homes sold--on all lot sizes-- in 2015 were in the $200,000 to $499,000 price range.
  • There was a significant rise of 44% to 535 Bend homes sold in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 range from 2014 to 2015.
  • There were only two sales of more than $2,000,000 in Bend, although that doubled the one sale in 2014 in that range. Altogether million plus sales in Bend are only  2.12% of all homes sold.
  • Total Bend sales volume topped $1 billion for the first time since 2006, an increase of 22.45% to $1,129,639,100 in 2015 from $915,202,284 in 2014.
  • At $340,000 the 2015 price of a median family Bend home on all lot sizes has climbed to within $25,000 of the $365,000 median price at the market peak for 2006.
  • Short sales and foreclosures in Bend have dropped to only 4.57% of all sales, a continued decline from a peak in 2009 when more than 57% of sales were distressed properties and the period of 2008 through 2011 when that segment topped 50% of all sales. 

Previous post for all Central Oregon sales

A Groundhog Day market - more of the same for 2015 Central Oregon real estate


Source: MLS of Central Oregon

Source: MLS of Central Oregon

Thursday, January 21, 2016

A Groundhog Day market - more of the same for 2015 Central Oregon real estate



            Maybe Punxsutawney Phil might be the one to recap the year in Central Oregon real estate.
            In short it might be best described as a Groundhog Day market- more of the same in terms of rising prices and number of sales, with continued tight inventory.

            At year end the inventory of single family homes on less than an acre throughout the region ranged from a low of only 1.69 months supply in Redmond to 4.50 months in  Jefferson County. At 2.03 months inventory Bend was close behind Redmond on the availability chart.
            The inventory numbers are computed by averaging the past 12 month sales and dividing the current total of MLS listed homes by the average.
            Moreover the inventory has continued to shrink from yearend 2014 numbers. A balanced buyer-seller market is generally considered in the 5-6 months range.
            The largest median price gain was in Sisters, with an increase of 23% to $330,000. Redmond rose to $223,266, a 14% increase, and Bend to $327,478, up 13%.
            Unit sales of homes on less than an acre jumped by 40% in Sunriver had the largest jump in unit sales, by 40% and also recorded the highest median price at $375,000. Redmond unit sales rose by 15% in Redmond and 9% in Bend.

2015 Central Oregon home sales

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Major new home projects launch in Sisters



            To the west of Bend, the town of Sisters is set to gain a significant boost in the number of single family homes within the city limits after several years of scarce inventory .
            Three projects -- two just underway and the revival of another that faltered in the market collapse -- could add more than 180 new units to the housing supply.
            The new communities are Clear Pine, planned in several phases to include 78 single family homes on and 22 townhomes and Kuvaito with 34 custom homes. Sales for the early phases in each project, both on the northern edge of town, began in late 2015.
            ClearPine is a joint venture of managing partner Peter Hall of Bend and other investors. Hall is also the principal in the Three Sisters Business Park to the east of the residential project.
            Hall and investors purchased the more than 20-acre property in 2005 for $3.2 million from the Sisters School District. It was  initially planned as a business park, which remains a possibility  to the south of the new residential area.

            Kuvaito will be a custom home neighborhood designed by Don Denning Artisan homes on 13 acres to the east of ClearPine and adjacent to the south from the larger acreage homes in established Trapper Point. The property is owned by Dutch Pacific Properties, an LLC that includes Shane Lundgren, whose ancestors operated the Lundgren Mill at the site and whose family has property on the Metolius River area near Camp Sherman.
            The other large project that came to a standstill in 2009 is Saddlestone, with more than 80 single family lots. The 17 acres on the northeast side of Sisters was initially developed by Pahlisch Homes, which in the early 2000s was  the region’s largest builder.
Saddlestone home design
            County records show that Pahlisch paid more than $5.6 million for the bare land and completed the infrastructure including a park and paved walking paths before Bank of the Cascades took over the project as the builder retrenched during the market downturn.
            Salem-area investor Peter Dinsdale paid the bank $2.4 million for Saddlestone in late 2009 and has now teamed with Olsen Design and Development of Monmouth to build several new homes. As of mid-December 2015 there were five pending sales of homes under construction in a range of $330,900 to $422,400. Also listed were 14 active Saddlestone lots at $69,900 to $125,900 and five new construction homes in a range of $305,900 to $403,000. And one lot has sold at $84,900.
            ClearPine is suggesting that homes be built in what the developer describes as prairie, craftsman or mid-century modern in the style of new homes being built on Bend’s west side, such as Northwest Crossing. The developer has established a lending relationship for new construction with Washington Federal Bank.
 ClearPine site illustration
            ClearPine has also identified eight preferred builders for homes expected to start in the mid-$300,000s for the initial 14-home phase on lots from 5,000 to 7,000 square feet.  
            At Kuvaito the design guidelines emphasize a blend of stone, structural brick, wood and rustic metals with all homes expected to be Green Certified. Artisan Homes will build custom homes to owners selected plans with suggested prices starting at $499,000. In all phases there are 30 lots in the 8,244 to 8,763 square foot range and four of approximately 10,300 to 32,400 square feet.
            Denning, the Kuvaito designer, is encouraging homeowners to use Artisan Homes as the builder but informed brokers in a recent presentation that the design committee would consider other contractors.
            Before the emergence of ClearPine and Kuvaito, and while Saddlestone was in hibernation, the region’s largest volume homebuilder, Hayden Homes, was active in its Village at Cold Springs on Sister’s west side with 91 single family homes and 30 townhomes/condos just east of the Sisters High School.
            Now the largest volume new home builder in Central Oregon, Hayden started the project in  2007 when the company sold four single family homes of approximately 2,400 to 2,600 square feet  in a range of $357,255 to $396,500.
A new Village@Cold Springs home sold in 2007
Since then the company has also built smaller single family homes of just over 1,000 square feet at prices as low as $131,000 in 2011, then effectively tailoring its product line to reflect lower demand during the past difficult market years.
As of December 8, 2015 there were only 22 single family homes shown as available for sale in an MLS map search of Sisters’ close-in neighborhoods, including Saddlestone, ClearPine, and Kuvaito. In the same map area parameters there were 38 reported sales on the MLS in the past 12 months, indicating a current 6.9 month supply in that area.
Typically a nearly seven-month supply based on an average of the past 12 month of sales would be considered normal, or even leaning toward an oversupply. But the Sisters area has been atypical in that sales within the city limits have been constrained by the lack of single family homes on the market.
Among the more established newer neighborhoods within the city limits are:
Buck Run - First sales began in 1997 at $39,000 of a total 74 potential lots with sales of lots at $140,000 to $160,000 in 2014-2015 and an active lot listings at  $150,000 and $249,000 in mid December 2015.
The first home smaller Buck Run home sold for $220,000 in 1997 and the top sale at $615,000 occurred at the market peak in mid-2006. The lowest recorded sale was $160,000 in the market trough years.
Coyote Springs- Initial  lot sales in Coyote Springs began in late 2000 at $77,900 and ramped up to $104,900 before developers withdrew remaining inventory  as the market continued to rise with a top sale of $265,000 in October of 2006. That lot was later sold in foreclosure at a all-time low of $48,900 in January of 2011, a dramatic indication of the roller coaster ride of Sisters--and all of Central Oregon-in the boom and bust cycle.
The bare lot churn of the project has resulted in 57 sales of the 47 lots originally platted in the project.
Home sales in Coyote Springs have ranged from a low of $315,000 in 2003, the first year a completed home sold, to $700,000 in 2010. There has been one sale in 2015, a builder spec at $594,500, although several homes have been built for lot owners.
           
Spectacular views define Pine Meadow Village
Pine Meadow Village - Coming to market in the late 1990s, Pine Meadow Village with more than 80 single family and townhome/condo sites attracted buyers with its spectacular views of the Cascades, clubhouse with pool, tennis and water features.
Including resales there have been more than 120 residential sales, excluding shared interest but including resales, and nearly 170 land sales in Pine Meadow since 1999.
            At the market peak in 2007 a perimeter lot bordered by ranchland with unobstructed mountain views sold for $325,000. In 2013 an interior lot sold for $85,000, the same as several early lots sales as the project launched in 1999.
            Home sales have ranged from the mid to upper $300,000s in the early years for traditional single family, other than small cottages, to $690,000 in 2015. There have been townhome/condo/cottage sales in from the mid $100,000s to low $300,000s.

          

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

CLT: A new building method makes gains in the Northwest


            If it’s natural, sustainable and has a small carbon footprint could a more than 20-year-old building system that began in Europe find a dedicated following in environmentally-conscious Oregon?
            The future of cross laminated timber, or CLT, as a structural component to mostly replace concrete, drywall and other materials will be tested with product from a southern Oregon mill and several projects underway in the state.
            By some estimates CLT could be poised to become a $4 billion national market in the foreseeable future.
            CLT technology relies on the additional structural strength derived from gluing an odd number of solid-sawn wood layers, three to nine for example, perpendicular to each other. Industrial presses then compress the layers into straight panels up to 12 x 60 feet and 20 inches thick depending on the manufacturing facility. In building construction CLT is used for roofs, walls and floors. 
CLT simplified
A Canadian developer is using primarily black spruce from boreal forests but CLT can combine spruce, fir, pine, cedar and other wood, including timber salvaged from wildland fires.
In Europe and Canada “tall timber” CLT structures, some more than 20 stories, are in the planning stages or under construction.
Among advantages of CLT most often cited are:

·        Use of a renewable resource with less environmental impact on climate change and pollution
·        Solid wood panels have the strength of concrete, but are five times lighter, and are 15 times lighter than steel
·        Thermal insulation is seven times greater than concrete and 500 times more than steel.
·        Fire resistance is greater than sheet rock
·        Construction can be faster with pre-fabricated panels and fewer tools required
·        Wood creates healthier interior conditions as the result of reduced toxic emissions compared to other materials

A leading CLT proponent is Vancouver architect Michael Green. With crusading zeal Green has carried the CLT banner to Ted talks and seminars, and is the designer force behind the Wood Innovation and Design Centre in Prince George, BC.
            The 6-story plus mezzanine and penthouse building, in cooperation with the University of Northern British Columbia, is a demonstration of CLT construction. It’s funded by more than $25 million from the provincial government and intended to be a linchpin of downtown revival in the largely resource-dependent city of north central BC.
BC's Wood Innovation and Design Centre
            In a 2013 Ted Talk, Green made the case for wood over conventional concrete and cement construction in an example of a 20-story building. http://goo.gl/DhP2aq
            “If we built a 20-story building out of cement and concrete, just manufacturing that cement would produce 1,200 tons of carbon dioxide. If we built it with wood, we’d sequester about 3,100 tons, for a net difference of 4,300 tons between the two scenarios. That’s the equivalent of about 900 cars removed from the road in one year,” Green said.
            The potential of  CLT was credited by Valerie Johnson, heir to the founder and now chief executive of D.R. Johnson Lumber Co. in Riddle, OR, with convincing her to guide the company toward CLT production after she heard a presentation by Green in 2010. The Johnson mill had been hard hit by the recession and needed an economic lift as did the timber industry dependent town in souteastern Oregon.
            In a published interview, Johnson said she an another executive decided to visit CLT manufacturing  facilities and projects in Austria and Germany. Following the tour and with existing capital and other funds including a $50,000 Oregon Best grant they added the necessary equipment at the company’s laminating production line.
In September of this year, Gov. Kate Brown announced that D. R. Johnson had become the first company in the country to be certified for manufacture of CLT for structural use.
With the APA/ANSI certification, by the American Plywood Association/American National Standards Association guidelines, the company currently produces CLT panel is sizes up to 10 x 24-feet in three, five and seven layers, primarily using either Douglas fir or Alaskan yellow cedar.
The company will also receive a $100,000 grant from Business Oregon, the state economic development agency, to offset costs of the CLT production line.
 CLT as a structural building technology had its genesis in Austria in the 1990s and there are many “tall-timber” buildings--residential and commercial--throughout Europe.
 What would be one of the world’s largest “wooden skyscrapers,’’ known as the HoHo is planned for Vienna, at more than 270 feet with a hotel, apartments, restaurant, a wellness center and offices. In Paris a 35-story CLT based apartment tower in the planning stages.
In Montreal, the Arbora mixed project in the city’s Innovation District will employ CLT material in three 8-story buildings totaling 597,000 square feet that will include 430 condo, townhouse and rental units and main floor commercial space.  Arobora will use black spruce from the northern forests of Quebec.
Arbora-Montreal's CLT mixed use community
            Manufacturing of cross laminated timber first migrated across the Atlantic to Canada in the early 2000s, buoyed by that country’s ample forest resources and receptive industry and government support.
            In 2012 the largest CLT facility in the United States began production in Columbia Falls, MT, about 10 miles from Whitefish and 15 miles to the West Glacier entrance to Glacier National Park.
            The Montana company, SmartLam, has a much larger plant than Oregon’s new CLT company. But as of early November. it had yet to receive certification for manufacturing structural CLT. The company has primarily provided  platforms at oil drilling locations, for heavy machinery support in wet soil areas of the southeast, and for bridges and other industrial uses.
            Mike Rossi, VP of Finance and Business Operations at SmartLam, said in a recent visit to the Montana plant in early November that the company is eyeing Oregon as a CLT market “far ahead” of other states in embracing the technology.
            SmartLam is gearing up for substantially increased production when it expands from it’s current 40,000 square foot facility to a new 160,000 square foot plant capable of processing 4 million board feet or 160 truckloads in a single month.
Until the D. R. Johnson mill in Oregon gained certification a Penticton, BC company, Structurlam, and Nordic Structures of Montreal, produced most certified structural timber in North America. In 2009 the BC government approved construction of six-story residential wood buildings, jump starting adoption of CLT with more than 50 Canadian projects and dozens more in the planning stage over the past few  years.
            A 2015 revision in the International Building Code has further opened doors for CLT construction in North America.
            Apart from the building code obstacles, which the IBC revision addresses on a large scale, early skeptics of CLT have questioned potential additional cost, fire resistance, the impact of timber harvests on the environment and the need for specialized building crews.
            In response, those promoting CLT note that costs are competitive with conventional construction and can even be lower with reduced foundation expense due to lighter loads, and faster construction times.
How CLT works-New York Times 2012


A 2014 study of alternative construction in the Northwest by Mahlum Architects and Walsh Construction, with Seattle and Portland offices, and Seattle engineering firm Coughlin Porter Lundeen concluded that CLT construction in a 10-story residential building could be 4% less expensive than conventional building methods. And  more savings could be realized by mixing wood frame and CLT, the study added.
            Some CLT advocates also maintain crews can be easily trained and that working with CLT panels is similar to traditional “glu-lam” construction.
            As for fire resistance, they cite the example of trying to start a campfire with large diameter logs. CLT mass timber acts more like concrete, they note, and when ignited tends to burn itself out.
            Regarding the harvest impact, statistics show that in the past 50 years the North American annual timber harvest rate was 2%, compared with an annual tree growth rate of 3%. Moreover CLT has the potential to make use of trees felled by beetle kills, which results in increased release of carbon during decay.
            In Oregon one demonstration of CLT’s future will be a 12-story mixed use building, to be known as Framework,  in Portland’s Pearl District. It will include ground floor retail, five floors each of work space and living areas and a rooftop “amenity” area.
Lever Architecture's CLT design for Portland
            The Oregon CLT movement gained momentum in January  of 2015 at the Oregon Leadership Summit with about 1,000 attendees and Michael Green was among the speakers.
            Not everyone in the design-build community believes CLT will emerge quickly in Bend.
An Bend-based architect who has offices in Bend and Whitefish, MT--only a 10 minute drive to the large CLT manufacturing facility in Columbia Falls-- points out that given CLT relies in part on timber harvest its claim to “green” is not completely assured.
            He questions whether the Bend building community will easily adopt CLT design and construction. Contractors and their subs are very busy in the currently active market and will not likely embrace something untried locally, he observes.
            Washington state appears to lag Oregon in design and building codes that open the way for CLT.
            In  mid-October CLT was the centerpiece of the Building for a Sustainable Future conference in Seattle that brought together an impressive list of 80 leaders in government, the design and building industry, business, tribes and the environmental community.
            Sponsored by Forterra, which began several decades ago as the Seattle-King County Land Trust, the conference identified outdated building codes, including those related to seismic and fire issues, and limitation of CLT  construction to six stories as obstacles to address.
8-story CLT apartment building in Finland
            Also noted was the extra time and costs for research, testing and demonstration to satisfy agencies involved in adopting and enforcing new building codes.
            “For Washington to grow a market for CLT/mass timber, incentives are needed to level the field with conventional building materials. Key demand points: building codes, education, incentives, public/government support.” concluded the Forterra post-seminar overview.
            Nevertheless, CLT has gained a toehold with smaller residential and commercial projects in Seattle with one of the more well-known efforts by Cascade Built. The company has finished several smaller CLT  homes in the city’s Madison Valley.
A CLT residence in Seattle
            In a June 2015 online article Cascade Built president Sloan Ritchie described his company’s work on a 1,500 square foot home for Seattle architect Susan Jones.
            The company built the home with panels manufactured by Structurlam of Penticton, BC in a combination of spruce, pine, balsam fir for the exterior and blue-beetle-kill lodgepole pine in some interior applications. Altogether construction required 67 panels in sizes of 2 x 10 feet to 8 x 35 feet and weighing 200 to 2,800 pounds.
            In assessing the experience, Ritchie explained that, “The overall lesson here is that the builder who has the opportunity to use CLTs needs to systematically think through everything. Given enough upfront planning, it’s a great system that creates a high-quality result.”
           
           

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Bend briefs: Phoenix flights, building permits, Mirror Pond and ice rink



Up Up and Away to Phoenix

A missing piece in direct air service from Central Oregon to major western destinations could be filled soon.
            The Redmond City Council has accepted a $500,000 federal grant that would be part of a guaranteed revenue package for an airline to inaugurate nonstop service to Phoenix’s Sky Harbor International Airport.
            The grant is part of $770,000 fund, the balance of which could  come from Redmond city coffers and the waiver of landing fees. The City of Redmond owns and operates Roberts Field, the regional airport.
            Similar revenue guarantee programs have been used in the past to entice airlines to service other destinations, including American Airlines’ direct flights to Los Angeles. That service was started then suspended in the past few years but is set to begin again Dec. 17.



Deschutes residential permits climb-but far short of peak year

            New statistics from the Deschutes County community development department show a continued climb in residential building permits. But through October of this year the numbers are well off the peak in 2005.
            For the period January through October of 2015 the county issued 387 permits for new homes, 46% fewer than the top of the building boom 10 years
ago when 837 were booked.
            At  the trough of the market in 2010 the county issued only 83 residential new home permits. Since then permits climbed slowly in 2011 and 2012 before more than doubling in 2013 to 251 as the market recovered.
            The county statistics value new residential construction through October this year at $16,193,156; alterations $966,404; and accessory building $2,442,433.
           
Mirror Pond improvement process stuck

            After  many months of committee meetings, public surveys and negotiations among key entities the effort to develop a final plan to address silt buildup in Bend’s cherished Mirror Pond on the Deschutes River appears to be stalled if not stuck.
            But it appears certain that a master plan that would have included significant development of city-owned property in the area is now off the table.
            The most recent shedule posted on the website of an Ad Hock Committee steering the development of a plan shows that Phase Three to “identify preferred strategy for immediate and long term responses to current conditions” is “currently in progress.”
            Early in October Bend’s parks and recreation director said the plan to redevelop property along Mirror Pond as part of the overall solution was on hold.
            Instead the city has reportedly narrowed the focus to potentially dredging the Pond and working on the shores to improve river flows and retard silt buildup.
            Initial discussions with Pacific Power, owner of the Newport Street dam and hydropower facility on the south end of the pond, have not yielded any certainty as to the utility’s plans for the dam. That had been a key piece of the larger plan to improve flows in the pond, which was last dredged some three decades ago.


Sharpen the blades, get out the stick or  practice your sweeping

            For all those ex-pat Canadians and former eastern college players the time is nearly here to release pent-up energy with some mayhem on the ice.
            Bend’s new multi-sports facility, The Pavilion, with its professionally refrigerated winter ice rink is set to open berfore the Christmas holidays. The refrigeration has begun and the Zamboni is on the way.
            Bend parks officials say interest by adult hockey players is brisk with nearly 120 signed up as of early November when only about a dozen more spots were available.
            Also creating demand is curling, with more than 120 registered and a waiting list started. The parks department has already ordered 40-pound curling stones and brooms for the sport.
            Hockey registration was set to end Nov. 16 and curling Nov. 20.
            The facility just west of the Simpson and Colorado Aveue roundabout will also be available for individual and family skating during the winter, then converted to court sports in the warmer seasons.