Is a generational divide joining interest rates as factor in housing?

             Are younger potential homebuyers stuck with renting their home or condo - with scant chance of finding something affordable to buy??
            Could it be that grandma and grandpa – and maybe mom and dad – are locking the kids out of the housing market?
            That along with mortgate interest rates that have been stuck above 6% for some time are often blamed for the shortage of homes available for a younger generation dreaming of a place of their won.
            By some theories, an equity rich older generation is either staying put in their homes or selling and rolling the cash into another home, thereby driving up prices and competition for buyers, and squeezing more affordable inventory out of the market.
            In some cases retirees may be splitting that equity between a couple, or more, places—maybe a condo in Palm Spings and a smaller house Bend, after escaping the urban turmoil and traffic of Seattle, San Francosco or Portland.
            All that said, let’s take a look at the Bend real estate market for the 12 months of 2023.
            The Beacon Report complied by Beacon Appraisal Group of Redmond, OR and a continuing weekly Market Action Index distributed by First American Title together offer insights into where the market is now, where it has been and maybe where it could be heading.

            On a rolling 12-month basis median prices for single family homes in Bend on less than an acre rose a modest 1.24%, to $732,000 from $723,500 for the comparable period of 2022.
            Total sales dropped to 1,565 for the period, with 208 homes listed at year end, equating to a two-month supply of homes for sale based on the average of the past 12 months. That remains considerably below what professionals say is a balanced market of 5-6 months inventory. By comparison there were 2,033 sales in 2022 and 226 listed at year end, translating to an inventory then of only 1.5 months.
            In Redmond, Central Oregon’s second largest home market, median prices dipped from $512,000 to $486,000 for the 12 months, $26,000 or 5.08% under 2022. Redmond’s total sales sank from 782 in 2022 to 598 in 2023, with 134 homes available, or a  three months supply. That represents an increase from two-months inventory at the end of 2022.       

   Some observers say the marginal differences in year to year  median prices and inventory are reflective of a national trend wherein sellers are staying put and new home building doesn’t match potential demand. The inventory keeps the market balance on the
sellers side, except fewer owners are selling.
            That’s the conclusion in the January 24 Market Action Index snapshot of Bend housing by First American Title, which has Bend moving slightly more into a sellers market which could mean more upward pricing pressure.
            In Bend the lack of more affordable houing in relation to median incomes has led to a push to create deed restricted workforce housing. In some situations, employers are participating with non-profit housing groups to improve inventory.
            Local initiatives dovetail with an aggressive housing initiative backed by the Oregon governor, with some bipartisan legislative support. That would potentially loosen state funding that could improve affordability through incentives for entry and mid-level housing construction.

A mostly static market: But million dollar sales on rise

             With more than half of 2023 behind us the Bend real estate market trends appear to be tracking much the same as with the past few years --- from the pandemic boom and the ensuing spillover in 2023 and 2022.
            But listing prices are often being adjusted downward– rarely the case in the recently overheated market. Open houses have also proliferated, when before many single family homes would hit the MLS of Central Oregon as pending sales within days of a listing
agreement.
            Other key markers in the August report by Beacon Appraisal based on MLS statistics:

 

·         Inventory as calculated by averaging sales of the previous 12 months continues in a tight range of about two months.

·         Median single family home prices on a specific monthly basis continued to hit new highs in June, $785,000,  and July, $800,000, after falling to $660,000 in February from a high of $773,000 in February of 2022.

·         Even with a new monthly high price, on a rolling 12-month basis the median closing price at the end of July was $690,500, down $12,000 or 1.71%, from the previous 2021-2022 period.

            As widely reported across the country, prices in traditionally more heated markets have continued to hold well above pre-pandemic levels, with some moderate downward adjustments as noted in Bend.
            The overarching factor, the consensus appears, is continued high interest rates reaching 7% for a 30-year mortgage. Existing owners are reluctant to sell when they may have loans of 4% or less, thereby squeezing inventory while new homebuilding has not kept up with demand.
            When existing owners do sell, they’re holding years of built-up equity and may push prices higher with the extra cash when they buy another home.

            One trend noted in the Beacon Appraisal report is a rise in Bend sales above $1 millon--46 of the total 141 sales, or about 32% in July. And inventory at the $1 million plus level was only two months. For the 12 months including August of 2022 through July 2023 there were 381 of  a total 1,705 sales above $1 million, or more than 22%.
            However, the report said inventory for sales in the $1.6 to $1.8 million range stood at five months, and above that price level at six months.
            A report by First American Title Company provides another snapshot of the Bend market. As of August 16, the FATC Market Action Index categories Bend as a “slight seller’s market.”

            “In the last few weeks themarket has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, inventory is sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller’s Market zone so watch changes in the MAI. If the market heats up, prices are likely to resume an upward climb,” the report concludes.
            In Redmond, Central Orgon’s second largest housing market, the Beacon report shows a median price increase from June to July from $473,000 to $500,000, but below the $542,000 monthly peak in August of 2022.
            On a rolling 12 months through July the median as $470,500, down $21,000 or 4.27% from the same period of 2021- 2022.
            Overall Redmond inventory, as in Bend, was approximately two weeks but jumped to seven months in the $600,000 to $700,000 category and six months in the $550,000 to $600,000 range, Beacon reported.

Bend home price rise slows; Sales dropping but inventory remains tight

            A quick glance at Bend’s residential real estate market appears to show more of the same in terms of tight inventory and gradually increasing sales activity entering the traditional Spring sales cycle.
            But at the end of March the once superheated 12-month rolling median price increase of single family homes sold on less than an acre has slowed remarkably compared with the same period of 2021 to 2022. The new numbers come from the April report of Beacon Appraisal, based on MLS of Central Oregon data.
            The median price of sales ending March 31 of this year was $706,500, up 8.61% from the $650,500 for the 12 months ending March 31, 2022. However that rise was dramatically below the leap from the previous 12-month period  when the median rose by 21.59%, or $100,500 from $535,000.

            Most national, regonal and local market observers say pandemic-fueled housing price increases that began in 2020 appear to be abating. The question, though, is the extent to which markets may return to more normal price appreciation.
            The fact remains that in Bend, and many areas of the country, prices are beyond the reach of many families in the workforce.
            The key component for direction into the rest of 2023 and beyond will be interest rates for the mid to lower market price sectors, affecting not only first-time and move-up buyers but also builders relying on the commercial lending environment.
            For the first three months of 2023 inventory of single family homes on less than an acre remained steady at only a single month, dropping from a high of 2.06 months in July of 2022 and down from 1.5 months in December of last year. There were 1,890 sales in the past 12 months, 613 fewer – or 24.49% down – from the 2,503 for the same period ending in March of 2022.
            In Redmond, Central Oregon’s second largest home market, the 12 month median sale price was $491,500, $41,500 more than the same period from 2021 to 2022 – a 9.22% increase. That was below the 23.80% jump during the 12 months in 2020 to 2021.
            There were 693 sales in the 12 months ending March 31, 2023, a significant drop of 54% from the 1,506 single family sales in the 12 months ending March 31, 2022.
            The 93 Redmond listings at the end of March translated to an inventory of 1.6 months, still considered a seller’s market – although slightly less constricted that the supply of available homes in Bend.

A Tax on Activity That Creates the Problem: The Real Estate Transfer Tax

            Note: The following commentary first appeared as a guest column in the Bend Bulletin.
              Housing affordability for working families is near the top of 2023 agendas for Bend and other Oregon cities that have experienced rapidly appreciated home prices.
            How to address the challenge, wherein a free market sets prices, will require cooperation by government, nonprofit and private sectors – all of which will benefit from strategies to improve livability of a community.
            In Oregon, one of the most effective and least burdensome methods that could help fund affordable housing is—for now-- not possible. It’s called an excise tax in some states, a transfer tax in others.  Significantly, the tax can draw revenue indexed to inflated housing prices that have created the affordability problem, in turn serving to mitigate it.
            In Oregon a state law specifically prohibits a tax on the sale of real property unless it was enacted prior to March 31, 1997. Only Washington County, with a tax of 0.10% of closing prices, was grandfathered under that legislation.
           Oregon is one of 14 states that don’t tax the sale of real estate, according to the recent data from the Lincoln Intitute. https://tinyurl.com/2omsj9j9
           Even though state law already prohibited a transfer tax, Measure 79 passed by voters in 2012 by an approximately 59 to 41 percent vote embedded the prohibition in the state constitution.
           According to campaign reports, by December of 2011, a year before the vote, substantial funding to support the measure had come from from the National Association of Realtors, which reportedly gave $735,000 and the Oregon Association of Realtors, $332,140.
           At a recent Bend Neighborhood Leadership Alliance meeting, board members heard Bend housing director Lynne McConnell note two of the major challenges for creating more affordable housing in the city – money and available land.
            A board member raised the question of why a transfer tax, or another measure could not be implemented to create funds for affordable housing.
            To that issue, at the meeting assistant city attorney Ian Leitheiser explained state law and the constitutional barrier to a transfer tax.
           In Leitheiser’s words, there is, “…a large well-equipped industry or two with powerful lobbyists in the state that will squawk pretty loudly when people start talking about transferring their bread and butter of selling real property.”
            Given that the rolling median price of a Bend single family home sold in 2022 was $723,500 it’s unlikely that a transfer tax rate similar to Washington County’s 0.10%, or $723.50 in this case, would significantly impede real estate sales.
            The tax could be paid by either buyer or seller, or shared between them. Sales subject to the tax could also be tiered to reduce impact in lower price ranges.
           The MLS of Central Oregon database shows 2022 sales in Bend of single family homes on less than an acre $1,908,095,782. A modest transfer tax of 0.10% would have yielded $1,908,096. The sales do not include single family homes on more than an acre, townhomes and condos or undeveloped lots.
           A local option tax for cities and counties would allow them to target strategies for their specific needs. Provisions could require that the tax sunset or have to be reauthorized after a defined period. Proceeds not deployed could be returned to a housing trust fund and redistributed to qualified projects, maybe to reduce infrastructure costs for new construction.
            Funds might also be used with other sources to provide transitional shelter opportunities for homeless populations.
           A ballot initiative to repeal the Measure 79 constitutional roadblock to a transfer tax would be a step in the right direction, while concurrently repealing the related 1990s legislation. Perhaps the industry groups that backed the transfer tax ban could come together to support its demise.
            The financial impact on home buyers and sellers, and real estate and building industries, would be minimal. The benefits for more affordable housing could be substantial.
-by Lee Hicks

 

Bend and regional housing: Static early 2023 with many issues in play

             “Stasis” and “rebalancing” are a couple of terms now used to describe the Bend and Central Oregon housing market at the conclusion of 2022.
            And any major movement up or down will likely depend on the same factors that economists, the Federal Reserve, the Biden administration and politicians continue to assess and debate – inflation, a possible recession, interest rates amid an overarching and divided political landscape.
            The monthy median price for a Bend single family home on less than an acre in December of 2022, was $678,000, compared to $675,000 the same month of 2021 and the peak monthly median for the year reached $773,000 in March.
            The numbers are derived from The Beacon Report, compiled by Beacon Appraisal Group with data from the MLS of Central Oregon database.
            For the entire 12 months ending in December the rolling median sale price was $723,500, 13% above the $642,500 for the same period of 2021.
            Bend single family home sales for the 12 months of last year dropped to 2023, a more than 17% drop, or 457 sales, from the 2,480 reported for all of 2021.
            Inventory at the end of December was 1.5 months, calculated by averaging sales the previous 12 months and dividing into the currently active listings of 226 homes. Notably, at the end of 2021 there were only 74 current listings, a scant 0.4 month supply. A more stable buyer-seller balanced market is considered to be four to six months, technically meaning Bend is still a seller’s market.

2022 by the numbers

      

    But seller’s appear to be sitting on the sideline for a number of reasons. High interest rates would mean many buyers would face higher payments if they buy another home; prices have been leveling in Bend, leading some sellers to hope for a return to the escalating appreciation of previous years. And buyers may also be waiting for an improvement in inflation trends and interest rates.

 

The R word and political direction enter the discussion

            Add into the mix the possibility of a recession, uncertainty of political direction following recent elections and a presidential vote looming in 2024; and a tough year for stocks and retirement accounts. Waiting out the housing market may have considerable appeal.
            Days on market, a marker of demand rose to 30 days, the highest level since April of 2020, when the tabulation of that indicator was revised to reflect the days from the listing date to an accepted offer, rather than a closed sale.
            For much of 2020, 2021 and 2022 the DOMs were in single digits before rising steadily to double digits from July of this year– with the exception of a blip down from October to November.
            One of the more notable signals of a softening market for new single family homes is a steady drop in building permits, which ended 2022 at the lowest level in four years. In April of 2021 a four year high of 90 permits was recorded, dropping to 29 in December of 2021, then rising to 87 in March of 2022, before plummeting since August to only 16 permits issued in December.
            As in 2021, the four highest sale price ranges of 2022, in categories of $50,000, were from $450,000 to $650,000. Another trend continued with the number of $1 million plus sales rising from 15.74% of 2021 sales to 19.67% in 2022, indicating some strength in the more upscale categories.
            Going north 18 miles to Redmond, 2022 closed in December with monthly median single family prices at $425.000, below the $467,000 the same month of 2021 and substantially off the $538,000 reached in April this year.
            On a rolling 12 month basis, the 2022 Redmond median price was $512,000, a rise of 15% from the $446,500 for the same period of 2021 – slightly more than the 13% Bend increase.
            Most Redmond sales were clustered in the $400,000 to $600,000 range with only two sales at more than $1 million. Redmond also had more than 100 sales in the lower $300,000 to $400,000 range, with only 70 in Bend.
            Redmond’s total sales dropped from 1,071 in 2021 to 782 in 2022, while the number of listings at year end rose to 112 from 37 the previous year. Based on the average monthly sales Redmond’s inventory stood at 1.5 months, compared to 0.4 months at the end of 2021.
            It’s likely that Redmond’s market experiences some of the same factors as Bend, in the lack of inventory along with seller and buyer hesitation – by choice and/or necessity – due to background economic factors.
            Together, Bend and Redmond account for 75% of the Central Oregon housing market, with a total of 3,094 of the 4,215 sales across the region.

A regional homebuilder see's "rebalancing" in 2023

           In a recent blog post, Pahlisch Homes, the top middle to lower luxury homebuilder in the region, called the current market in a “much needed rebalancing” stage, citing inflation, recession fears and higher interest rates as slowing activity.

Interest rates since 1971

            But the company said optimistically, “…there are plenty of reasons to believe that the housing market will come out strong on the other side.”
            One statistic on the positive side, the company post noted, is that interest rates remain below the 7.76% fixed rate 30-year average from April of 1971 to December of 2022. As of January 5, Freddie Mac reported an average rate of 6.48%.
            Pahlisch's  point is well-taken. But consumers had become conditioned to historically low rates the past two years, even half of the current rate. Changing perceptions takes time.
            First American Title’s weekly market activity indicator continued to rank the Bend housing as in “stasis” as of January 10.  The national title company observed that prices have not moved upward for several weeks, but homes listed for sale are “sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller’s Market zone..”
          Another potentially more dire concern that could upend all economic sectors– housing, retailing, stocks and other investments – could be a battle over raising the nation’s debt ceiling. This is often a contentious issue, pitting Republicans and Democrats in brinkmanship negotiations that are often resolved at the last minute with long-term solutions kicked down the road.
            Now, with “burn it down” factions holding sway in the new Republican House majority, raising the ceiling could be even more difficult.
            As a financial report from Axios Macro put it:
            “A self-inflicted fiscal crisis could come at a terrible time amid a fragile U. S. economy, and undermine a Treasury market that underpins the world financial system.
            In that case, it’s unlikely that housing in Bend or anywhere else in the country would be insulated against the prevailing economic climate.