NIMBY vs. YIMBY escalates, now pits developer against developer

            Bend’s  NIMBY vs. YIMBY tension is ramping up and now pitting developer against developer as the city holds public hearings on a Seattle company’s plans for a 170-unit westside apartment complex.

            On one side is a vocal group arguing that the proposed four-story building will loom over the new whitewater park on the Deschutes River while also further tangling area traffic and flooding offstreet parking.

            Some are labeling opponents the NIMBY (not in my backyard) faction. Their cause has gained support from visionary developer Bill Smith who turned a mothballed timber operation upstream on the Deschutes into the fashionable Old Mill District mixed use project.

            On the other side is a group that has embraced the YIMBY (sub the Y for the N) mantle, arguing that skyrocketing rents and lack of multi-family dwellings are pricing many working residents out of affordable housing.

            Evergreen Housing Development Group of Seattle has proposed a 170-unit, four-story, 168,000 squre foot building on the 2.91 acre site zoned mixed use waterfront (MR). The proposal calls for 170 offstreet parking spaces supplemented by another 16 on street.

            The site is between Bend’s new Pavilion multi-sport recreational facility and sits above Shevlin-Hixon Drive, McKay Park and the Deschutes River rafting safe passage channel and whitewater park.

            Smith reportedly was involved in establishing the MR zone, with an early, hypothetical master plan that at one time envisioned a 120-room hotel on the site. An illustration Smith reportedly had prepared before the recent hearing is intended to show the proposed apartment on a massive scale in relation to its surroundings.                  

          As well as traffic and parking pressures, opponents maintain the bulding will cast a shadow over the park grounds and river.

            The Bend planning department had initially approved the apartment proposal at the administrative staff level, noting that it met zoning requirements but would require a height variance of five feet more than the 45-foot code standard.

            But a senior planning official elevated the application review to require a hearing as the result of increased public interest.

            Opponents have taken to Facebook posts on various groups, including a YIMBY group advocating for this project and others which could improve housing availability.

            A sampling of comments include rants about greedy real estate professionals and insensitive out-of-town developers, along with laments about Bend losing its small town atmosphere.        

            One contrary post, to the YIMBY group that favors the project: “The effing real estate pros OWN this town. They make all the rules and take all the profit for short term gain. Really sad. But hey, that’s American Capitalism. Rich get richer, poor get poorer.”

            Another: “Is everyone aware of this?! This is poorly planned project lining the pockets of companies completely outside of Bend :( Not to mention creating a parking and aesthetic nightmare! Please get the word out!”

            Apartment supporters say, among other points, that Bend is no longer a small town, with a population nearing 100,000. It needs to plan for the future rather than hiding from inevitable growth issues.

            “We are a city now we’re not a town anymore and building up and not out is really important for sustainability in the future,” said one speaker at the January 11 public hearing.

            The hearing officer scheduled a continued public hearing of the proposal for Friday, January 18, at 2:00 pm.  

Guest ranch application puts focus on additional ag land uses

            An application now making its way through the Deschutes County land use process puts the spotlight on the potential for new tourism-related activity on property zoned for agriculture.

            In a session January 8 a  hearing officer took into consideration a county staff decision to approve a guest ranch on property adjacent to the Sisters city limits, and an appeal filed by Central Oregon Land Watch.

Site plan (north to right) for Pole Creek guest ranch

            County staff had earlier approved the application by Glenn and Jen Cole, principals of Pole Creek Properties LLC, to establish guest ranch lodging and other facilities on what was formerly known as the Patterson Ranch, once a breeding ranch for llamas that at one time include a small elk herd.

            Oregon law allows owners of 160 acres or more of land zoned for agricultural use to build guest facilities provided ranch and farm activities are continued on the property.

            From four to 10 cabins totaling up to 12,000 square feet and a central lodge common area for dining and other uses are allowed on a parcel of at least 160 acres. More limited lodging is allowed on another 160 acres. Any dining facilities and other activities are limited to lodging guests.

            Proponents of the guest ranch option generally point to it enabling smaller ranches without “high value” farmland to have other sources of income while also preserving agricultural activites and open space from development.

Pole Creek Ranch (north to top)

            In filing an appeal of the Pole Creek application, Land Watch cited four objections: 1) that the ranch livestock operation had not been “existing and continuing” before the application; 2) that livestock operation would be “dwarfed” by guest ranch activities; 3) that the property did not have “accepted livestock practices”; and 4) that a dwelling for the livestock manager was not on the property.

            The Cole’s purchased the 345-acre ranch in mid-2017 for a reported $6.5 million.

            In a statement to the Sisters Nugget newspaper, the Coles disputed each point made by Land Watch in its objections filed with Deschutes County.

            The newspaper also quoted the Cole’s statement,

            “We have proposed and Deschutes County ahs approved, a guest ranch that compliese with the law. Guest rnach lodging will be provided by an existing house and five small cabins. Guest events area limited so they will be less intense than those allowed on large ranch and farm properties with an agri-tourism/special event permit. The guest area is tucked in the trees where it will not interfere with farm use.”

            Agri-tourism/special event permits noted by the Coles have aroused opposition in some cases due to additional noise from crowds, music and traffic. Many of the permits are used to hold weddings on agricultural zoned land and in some cases larger concerts.    

      

                         

Grab the reins and hang on-2019 is around the corner

          Yee haw cowpokes!! Only rodeo bull or bronc riders might appreciate the volatility and machinations of the current stock and real estate markets going into what promises to be an uncertain 2019.

          Rising interest rates. Bulls fighting Bears. Trade wars. Cohen and Pecker flip. Mattis resigns. More to come...Impeachment? Mueller’s poker hand revealed? House investigations?

          Will Trump”s erratic, diversionary and mostly inaccurate tweeting continue? Probably. Or will the House’s incoming political counterbalance coupled with beginning of the 2020 presidential campaign provide some sanity? Not likely.

          The milieu of domestic and international challenges is daunting, with much concern for the potential fallout on what has been a decade long economic recovery.

           As for stocks, the recent dramatic swings up and down are enough to bring shivers to any investor portolio. The Dow Jones average, S&P 500 and other tracking indexes are essentially back at the January starting line for the year.

          But a New York Times report noted that as of Dec. 10 the S&P 500 remained 16% above its level at Trump’s inauguration (remember that biggest crowd ever?).

December 21, 2018

          Yet,  the market was already on an upward climb through the Obama administration. In its first two years starting Jan. 1, 2009 the S&P climbed 51%, and more than 60% from a 800.14 trough brought on by the near economic collapse resulting in large part from failed mortgage backed securities driven by “irrational exuberance.” (and no small measure of greed).

          The current stock malaise dovetails with a softening of the housing market after years of the current upward arc since the “Great Recession.”

          One telling indicator is the Seattle-King County housing market, the Northwest's largest, which for much of recent years was leading the appreciation pack of major metro areas.

          New statistics from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service show the November median price of a single family home in King County was $644,000 compared with $726,000 in May, a drop of 11.3%. That’s edging toward the 14% drop that occurred in the housing collapse beginning at the end of the previous decade.

          At its peak of the past two years the Seattle area market was a frenzy of multiple offers for properties, often with all cash and no inspection or financing contingencies.

          The Seattle Times reports that, even with still-pricey closings, days on the market have extended, inventory is up and sales are slumping as buyers enjoy the luxury of caution to do more research and wait out developing trendlines.

          Narrowing the focus to Bend, Beacon Appraisal’s December report covering October through November 2018 notes a November median single family home price at $433,000, the same as October but up from $425,000 in September.

          The highest monthly median for the past 12 months was $449,000 in June, which topped June of 2017 by $40,000.

          Perhaps a more meaningful gauge of market direction is the 12- month rolling median which at the end of November was $424,000, 7.47% above the $395,000 for the same period of 2017.

          Total sales for the 12 months ending in November were 2,484 with currently active listings of 435, which translates to inventory of two months, the same as for the period through Ocober.