Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Snowpack, water and endangered species - A complicated calculus


            What a difference a month makes!
            The chatter among Mt. Bachelor ski area season pass holders at New Year’s Day celebrations mostly turned around dodging rocks and bare spots on the few runs that had opened this season.
            Then came the storms, which on the Northwest’s premier  9,000-foot plus favorite ski destination dumped more than 70 inches in seven days in a week ending January 13. By February 4, with periodic light and heavy snowstorms, the mid-mountain base topped 100 inches and the ski area's website noted January had seen the most snow on its slopes in 12 years.
            It wasn’t just the winter outdoor enthusiasts who were enjoying the bonanza. Deschutes basin irrigators and conservation groups were on board as the promise of a better snowpack portended an improved outlook for the coming year to improve reservoir levels for growing crops and stream flows for bull trout, steelhead trout and the spotted frog, species listed under the federal Endangered Species Act, or ESA. The potential for sockeye and Chinook salmon to be listed in the future is another factor in the discussion.
            On February 4, three largest reservoirs  in the Upper Deschutes River watershed that store water during the winter months were reporting levels ranging from 52% of  capacity in Crescent Lake; 57% Wickiup; and 82% Crane Prairie.
Oregon snowpack as of Feb 5 2020
            In the Crooked River basin, the largest reservoir, Prineville, which holds water above Bowman Dam, reported 60% of capacity, while Ochoco and Haystack Reservoirs on downstream tributaries in that basin were 47% and 79%, respectively.
            Another important metric is mountain snowpack and its water content in gauging and predicting the potential runoff as snows melt to recharge basin reservoir storage.
            As of February 5 the Natural Resources Conservation Service reported that the snowpack for Deschutes and connected stream basins ranged from 90%-99% of normal, and that readings from Snotel sites showed the snow water equivalent at near 15 inches, nudging the median for 1981 through 2010. And the SWE had jumped ahead of 2019 by more than four inches.           
              Habitat Conservation Plan               
            This “water year,” which began last fall for the Deschutes and Crooked watersheds, comes as irrigators are working to gain approval for a “habitat conservation plan,” ir HCP, an option of the ESA, presented in draft form at a series of public meetings with a comment period that concluded in early December.
            The HCP and a companion Federal Environmental Impact Statement, as required in the process, will now be released with any changes as final documents mapping Central Oregon water use for the next 30 years.
            The HCPs are frequently held out by federal agencies charged with enforcing the ESA  as a way for farmers, utilities, cities, and other stakeholders to obtain an “incidental take permit,” or ITP, as provided under the 1973 law.
         
 
   As an example, an irrigation district might agree to pipe open transmission ditches to conserve water that might be lost through leaking into the ground or evaporation. In return, the conserved water would show enforcement agencies thar the district was making an effort under the HCP to preserve habitat for bull trout , a species listed as threatened in the Deschutes and Crooked basins.
            The timing and volume of water releases from basin dams, in particular Wickiup Dam on the Upper Deschutes, would reflect needs of the spotted frog. Studies have shown the species requires less water to be released earlier in the growing season to protect eggs, and a steadier flow during other times of the water year.
            Also among options to address ESA requirements is the removal of acreage from irrigation, which under laws in Oregon and other states would make that “trust” water available instream for listed species. In most cases a farmer or irrigation district could recover the water in a later year if needed, and would not lose the water right.
                                 Irrigation for 244 square miles
            The regional effort to address ESA and water issues has coalesced through the Deschutes Basin Board of Control a coalition of eight irrigation districts, which together provide water to a total of just under 156,000 acres, an area equal to 244 square miles. Also participating is the City of Prineville, which relies groundwater withdrawal and surface diversions and treated effluent discharge involving the Crooked River basin. 
             An irony of the regional water situation is that the North Unit Irrigation District which potentially provides the resource for 59,000 acres and has the highest value of crops in Central Oregon holds "junior" water rights. As such other smaller districts including Central Oregon Irrigation District have "senior" rights and therefore first claim on all water in the basin in the "first in time, first in line" concept of centuries old western water law based on the "prior appropriation" doctriine.  
            The North Unit water rights are for storage in Wickiup Reservoir while COID's come from Crane Prairie upstream on the Deschutes. Nevertheless all water on the Deschutes including for districts with rights in other reservoirs must flow thorugh Wickiup. The result is a balancing act by dam managers for the districts and Bureau of Reclamation to insure, for example, that COID gets its water, initially held in Crane Prairie, out of Wickiup before North Unit, which suffers in low snowpack and storage years.
            By comparison as of Feb 10, Crane Prairie was 82% full, compared with Wickiup at 59%, putting the district in a much better position that the North Unit.
            Even with the improved snowpack in January and early February this year, North Unit water managers and farmers and ranchers in the district are already concerned at the low Wickiup storage. Several years of up and down runoff that have made it difficult to recharge the reservoir the following water year.
            Other entities involved in the ESA process, but not directly with the incidental take permit, have included the Confederate Tribes of Warm Springs, Trout Unlimited, the Deschutes River Conservancy and WaterWatch among others.
            Key federal agencies which must ultimately sign off on an HCP are the US Department of Fish and Wildlife and National Marine Fisheries Service. USFWS is responsible for actions involving the spotted frog and bull trout while NMFS directs efforts that would affect the ocean migrating steelhead trout.
            Section 7 ESA provisions provide that the federal agencies charged with species decision consult on strategies and actions affecting listed species. In the case of the Deschutes Basin, the federal Bureau of Reclamation, which operates Wickiup Dam, is also required to be a part of the process.
            In the final draft, the HCP and companion FEIS compare four options, one of those taking no action, which has been discounted.
            Among the other three options all would involve increasing fall and winter stream flows on the Deschutes. On the Crooked River the three choices would all boost water releases from Prineville Reservoir storage at increasing levels, similar to the Deschutes options.
            Other measures in the options would establish conservation funds and modify operation and maintenance of all “water facilities” involving flows into the Deschutes and Crooked basins.
            At the heart of the HCP process is regulation of releases from Wickiup, the region’s largest reservoir, through which stored water from Crane Prairie and Crescent reservoirs also flow.
Draft EIS/HCP water flow alternatives
            The “proposed action” as outlined in Alternative 2 would set a target of 100 cfs (cubic foot per second)  minimum fall/winter releases in years 1-5 of the plan; 200 cfs in years 6-10; 300 cfs in years 11-20 and 400 cfs in years 21-30.  
            Each cfs equals roughly 7.5 gallons a second; 450 gallons a minute and 27,000 gallons an hour. Extending that calculation, in 12 hours that flow rate would amount to one acre foot of water, or the amount to cover an acre of land with a foot of water.

Useful links for water and endangered species issues

Fact Sheet of Draft EIS for the Deschutes Basin HCP

Complete DRAFT HCP as of August 2019

A Timeline of the Spotted Frog ESA listing in the Deschutes Basin

Thursday, January 9, 2020

A Look Back at 2019: Sales flat and prices up


            It’s that time of year.
            The tree ornaments, the Menorah and other holiday symbols have been boxed away for another year. Auld lang syne, the fireworks and the Times Square ball are fading memories. The hangover – figurative and literal - is hopefully really over.
            Now it’s time many pundits look in the rear view mirror at all the important and mundane events of 2019
 and venture some off the cuff, and maybe off the wall, prognostications. We could get into politics—impeachment, Ukraine, Russia, gaslighting, real news, fake news, the 2020 election, turmoil in the royal family and on and on. But not here
            Instead let’s take a backward look at the real estate market - though no predictions coming from this quarter. You digest the data and make your own conclusions.
            When it comes to pinning down the current state of the market, if you ask a broker you’re likely to get opinions that might cut both ways. It’s a seller’s market, but that could change, time to get listed, a listing broker might say. Or, it’s a buyers market, don’t wait until prices escalate further, from somene representing a buyer.
            To the point: the available 2019 statistics for single family home sales in Bend show that median prices for the year increased by 4.55% when calculated for a “rolling” (or “moving”) 12 months ending December 31. In other words the median of the 12 month median was $447,500 compared with $428,000 for the same period of 2018.
            The numbers are for single family homes on less than an acre in the submarket of Bend/Tumalo/Alfalfa, as reported by the MLS of Central Oregon database and compiled by Beacaon Appraisal.
            Median prices – which splits sales by prices equally above and below the given number – are more reliable trend indicators than averaging sales, a method that can skew the market profile through, for example, a small number of mega-dollar transactions.
            For the past year Bend recorded 2,355 single family sales with 317 homes listed as of year end, translating to an inventory of less than two months availability – calculated by averaging monthly sales. Inventory has been stuck near that level for the past few years, as homes coming to market including new and existing ones, have not kept pace with sales.
            Depending on various analyst opinions, a market in balance is in the range of 4-5 months supply to create a more even playing field for sellers and buyers.
Bend and Redmond 2019
            One factor could be that owners of existing homes may feel less pressure to move up, or downsize in the case of empty nesters, and could be waiting to see how far prices will rise. Meanwhile entry-level buyers find themselves competing for newer, lower-priced homes in builder subdivisions and maybe even settling for older ones sometimes described as “a charmer waiting for your special touch.”
            Bend is by far the largest sub-market of the seven areas of Central Oregon in the MLS database, followed by Redmond-Terrebonne. Together they accounted for 79.65% of the reported 4,232 yearly regional sales. The total was remarkably close to 2018 closings of 4,286.
            The top four price ranges, in $50,000 stages, in Bend were from $300,000 to $500,000, or 57.70% of the total. Bend also had 123 sales above $1 million a jump from 100 in 2018.
            The rolling or moving median price for 2019 in Redmond was $325,000, up 9.61% from the same 12 months of 2018. The 1,016 total sales and 147 listings at the close of the year mirrored Bend’s at less than two months available inventory.
            Redmond’s top four price ranges were from $250,000 to $400,000, a total of 78.44% of all sales. There was only a single sale of $1 million or more.
            Among the smaller markets Beacon Appraisal reported only quarterly median sales prices. In that method, Sunriver’s median closing price calculated for the four quarters of 2019 was the highest at $513,500, followed by Sisters, $432,400; Crook Country (incl. Prineville), $253,000; LaPine, $250,000; and Jefferson County/Crooked River Ranch, $218,500.