New density rules open divisions in single family neighborhoods

            UPDATE: As of February 18 Bend city planners say there is no longer an active application for development of the Compass Corner site. More details in the future.

          Proposed projects at different points on Bend’s Awbrey Butte are focusing a debate over affordable housing, the impacts of high density and multi-family units in traditional single family neighborhoods--and related new city development code provisions.
            Comments by residents regarding proposals by separate developers for the West View project on Glassow Drive on the west side of the butte and Compass Corner on the northeast side both emphasize that the scale and traffic impacts would be detrimental to existing neighborhoods.
            However, both proposed projects appear to fit an emerging city strategy to encourage more multi-family and higher density housing in neighborhoods otherwise zoned RS, for standard single family homes.
            Latest versions of the city code follow Oregon’s new statute, House Bill 2001, intended to force higher density in single family neighborhoods, with the objective of easing the crunch of escalating housing costs beyond affordability levels for many families.
            Among new code provisions is the potential to build up to a quadraplex on a lot of at least 4,000 square feet in a typical neighborhood of single family homes. The code would also downsize current requirements for off street parking.
            As the provisions take effect, homeowners in some neighborhoods have begun to review requirements in their covenants, conditions, and restrictions, or CCRs, that stipulate what type of housing can be built. In theory, CCRs restricting construction to only a single family home would supersede the city code, but legal action might be required to enforce the CCRs.
            One of the two Awbrey Butte projects gaining much attention is Compass Corner, proposed as a mixed use development for as many as 63 studio, 1 and 2 bedroom apartments, up to four floors including retail space. Parking would be above and below ground on the 1.02 acre site overlooking Mt. Washington Boulevard and bordered by Awbrey Road

Compass Corner concept plan

NW.
            County records show the site is owned by Hotel Management LLC, with a registered agent at the same address as that for owners of the recently opened My Space hotel off Bond Street above the Old Mill District. The registered agent is Sueng Lee, at the same address, while LLC members and addresses on the Oregon business registry include Michael Chun of Bend; Anthony Kim of Federal Way, WA; and Shilla Yi of Tacoma, WA.
             In a January online presentation, representatives of the development team fielded comments from area residents who complained the several story buildings were out of scale for the neighborhood, would create traffic hazards and result in parking spilling onto narrow streets.
            Some commented online that neighbors should hire an attorney to oppose the project, as was done by owners in the Rivers Edge community who appear to have prevented the golf course there from being developed for housing. (links to Rivers Edge

Homeowners play a good round at Rivers Edge course

Trading golf for homes: Rivers Edge proposal raises future housng issues

             The project vision appears to have expanded considerably since the city posted a “pre-application meeting summary” of the proposal in February of 2021. That document noted a project to include 35,000 square feet of apartments and 5,000 square feet commercial, up to four stories with surface parking.
            Now in the proposal under consideration by the city as of November 2021, Compass Corner would include 63 apartments in two buildings with up to 10,000 square feet of commercial space. The two buildings would total more than 57,000 square feet along with underground and surface parking. 
             A little over two miles on the other side of Awbrey Butte some neighbors are mobilizing with yard signs to oppose the 6.5 acre West Hill Development that would include 42 units of townhomes, duplexes, triplexes, and quadraplexes on 29 lots. It could also result in removal of more than 700 trees.

West Hill on Glassow overview

            In a guest column in the Bend Bulletin, one resident wrote that,” The objection is not over development per se...The concern is over the scale of the project and the lack of fit with the surrounding neighborhoods, physical environment and supporting infrastructure.”
            Taking a stance more favorable to the project, another writer responding in a column that,  “To complain about housing in your neighborhood (and mine) that does basically the same things that the building of your home did is peak entitlement. Being against the development because it doesn’t exactly mirror what is currently there, despite the law allowing such development, only compounds the cost of building and the shortage of housing.”
            Principals of the West View project are members of Oregon Builders Developers LLC Glenn Kotara and Mark Huffman, both who have Bend mailing addresses.
            By mid-January of 2021, neither Compass Corner nor West View had come before the city planning commission for review, which would be a step before going to the Bend city council.
            With Compass Corner a conditional use permit allowing an exception to maximum size on the site would be required. And it’s possible the issues swirling around both projects could result in both being considered by a hearing officer after public sessions.
            Although not yet in the development planning stage, another site in the same Awbrey Butte area of Compass Corner could also become part of the density discussion.
            At the northeast corner of NW Sonora and Awbrey Road are two lots, one of  0.20 acre and another of 0.14 acre which were listed in January, and became pending sales in 24 days,  as potential sites for duplexes on each property. The site is at the southern intersection of the neighborhood served by streets linking to Compass Corner and abuts an often busy roundabout at a sloped point on Awbrey Road.

Looking back and ahead: Will home prices slow?

             Welcome to 2022. And maybe fasten your seatbelt.
            Inflation and CPI up, but GDP also up, interest rates on the rise – maybe with several Fed Reserve moves, midterm elections on the horizon and Covid still hanging around.
            What could go wrong with this bubbling stew of issues?
            And how does this all affect the macro and micro view of real estate, including down to ground level here in Bend and Central Oregon?
            First, let’s take a look at how 2021 rolled to an end, with a focus on Bend as the largest submarket segment in the region.
            As compiled for the Beacon Report by Beacon Appraisal, 2021 sales of single family homes on less than an acre in the greater Bend submarket totaled 2,480, down 3.61% from the comparable 12 months of 2020. Beacon’s numbers are based on data from the MLS of Central Oregon.
            Median prices for homes on less than an acre sold at a median price of $675,000 in December. On a rolling 12 months the median price was $642,500, or 30% more than the $496,000 in the comparable period of 2020.
            The largest number of sales, 45% or 1,107 homes, were in the $450,000 to $650,000 range, while only 51 homes sold at less than $400,000 and 176 under $450,000.
            A continuing trend has been the upward movement of sales at $1 million or more, with 405 in that range during 2021.
            Another repeated metric in the Bend market is tight inventory of only 74 homes for sale at year-end, which translates to only a 0.40 month supply based on the average of the past 12 monthly sales.
            In Redmond, the region’s second largest submarket, 2021 sales totaled 1,071, a slight increase over the 1,056 sales in 2020. The 30 homes on the market as of year-end mirrored Bend’s inventory of only 0.40 monts.

Redmond prices up 27%

            Redmond’s median price for December 2021 was $375,000 with the median for the rolling 12 months at $446,500, 27% higher than $351,000 for the same period of 2020.
More than 56% of sales, or 605 homes, were in the $300,000 to $400,000 range, evidence that Redmond continues to be a more affordable choice in the top two regional submarkets.
            Across the other five small submarkets single family homes sold on under an acre totaled 1,121 in 2021, with most sales, in Crook County (incoluding Prineville) at 340 sales and the next highest number, 230, in  in the Jefferson County (Madras) and Crooked River Ranch combined.
            Inventory in those areas ranged from lows of only 0.25 months supply in Sisters and Sunriver at year-end to three months in LaPine.

            The Beacon Report only tabulates quarterly median sales for the smaller submarkets. The most expensive submarkets were Sunriver and Sisters.  Monthly sales over the four quarters ranged upward each quarter from $794,000 to $865,000 in Sunriver and, in Sisters, from $479,000 to $645,000.  Of the other areas, LaPine prices were highest at $391,000 for the 4^th Quarter.
            As for where to in 2022, it’s doubtful that there will be a major influx of homes coming to market to move inventory from the current sellers market to a level of 4 to 6 months that signal a more balanced “normal” market.
            The uncertainty over interest rates, with the Federal Reserve signaling perhaps several rate increases, could dampen demand. And if Covid reaches a peak, begins to decline substantially and there are no severe new variants the rush to resettle out of major urban areas could taper.
            Moreover, though, as the customary mantra goes, Bend and Central Oregon will continue to be attractive for lifestyle values, retirement amenities and as a haven for remote working.
            Whether prices can continue to rise at rates of 25% to 30% annually could be the most important question for 2022. It’s doubtful.

Homeowners play a good round at Rivers Edge course

             Fore....
            It appears that there will be more “good walks spoiled” in the Rivers Edge community of Bend with news that opponents of developing a decades-old golf course for homes have prevailed.
            In late October, local media reported that a “settlement” had been reached in litigation by several Rivers Edge families to prevent a sale of the 18-hole course to Pahlisch Homes to build nearly 400 homes.
            As reported, homeowner associations would have the opportunity to purchase the course for $500,000 from Wayne Purcell, with 120 days to conduct due diligence and 30 days to close the transaction.
            Pahlisch and Purcell had announced the planned sale earlier this year. Pahlisch in turn had met with city officials and hosted a public meeting to answer questions about the proposed development.
            There was never a recorded document indicating more than Purcell's news release stating his intent to sell the 141-acre course to Pahlisch.
            As previously reported in Focus on Bend.

Trading golf for homes: Rivers Edge proposal raises future housng issues

Home prices through Q3 2021: Changes on way?

             A quick view of single family home sales in Central Oregon’s two largest sub-markets, Bend and Redmond, shows some slight upward tick in available inventory and a continued rise in prices.           
             The new statistics were compiled for the Beacon Report by Beacon Appraisal Group, drawing on results from the MLS of Central Oregon database.
             In the rolling 12 months through the end of September of 2021, the median price of single family homes on less than an acre in Bend was $609,000.  On a single month basis the median price crossed the $600,000 level for the first time in April, to $651,000, a dramatic jump from $590,000 in March.
            After that,  the price dropped to $628,000 in May, before recording an irregular line on the appreciation chart that shows an increase back to $650,000 in July, then a drop to $635,000 in August and back to $650,000 in September.
            Comparing the previous 12 month period of 2020, prices rose 32% from $460,000 at the end of September last year to $609,000 at the end of September 2021.
            Inventory, as calculated by averaging the previous 12 month sales in relation to currently active listings, at the close of September was only on month. Altogether there were 2,555 sales during the 12 months, with 232 active listings at month’s end.
            Although the inventory represents an improvement over a low of only 0.3 months during the past 12 months it nevertheless falls short of the 5 to 6 months usually considered to be a balanced buyer-seller market.
            More than 50%, or 1,298, of the past 12 months Bend sales of 2,555 were in the $400,000 to $650,000 range. In the 12 months through September 2020 there were 1,100 sales, or 44% of 2,489 sales  in that range.
            The more dramatic shift year to year for the 12 month period occurred in the $300,000 to $400,000 range. Sales in that lower range dropped from 674 to 136.

            As another marker of upward pricing in the Bend submarket, there were 367 sales, or 14.3%, at more than $1 million in the 12 month period, compared with 191, or 7.6%, of the 2,489 in the same 12 months ending in September of 2020.

            In Redmond, the 12 month median price rose 27% from $326,000 at the end of September 2020 to $412,500 the same period ending this September.
            Redmond prices crossed the $400,000 monthly mark in March and hit a high of $451,000 in June, before dipping to $436,000 in July and rising back to $450,000 in August and September.
            Redmond’s inventory was also approximately one month at the end of September, based on 12 month sales of 1119 and 97 active listings.
            Although anecdotal, experienced brokers sense a change in the Bend market, as aggressive seller pricing has resulted in downward listing adjustments on many properties.
            One issue could be a seasonal cycle that typically reflects the end of the usual summer vacation months, together with colder weather on the horizon and children back in school.               
            Bend sales in September this year dropped to 232 from 248 the same month of 2020. There were 104 sales in Redmond in September 2020, against 88 this year.
            On the national level, one significant industry group is warning of potential substantial downward changes in the housing market in coming years.
            A survey by Wakefield Research reported in the second week of October shows that 78% of community bank executives expect the housing market, “will ‘crash’ in the next five years," according to digital news site Axios.

            Another cautionary issue comes as economists keep a close eye on the Producer Price Index (PPI) in relation to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Substantial increases in fuel prices and distribution bottlenecks in the supply chain are both resulting in upward inflationary trends on many durable and household goods.
            There’s speculation the Federal Reserve, which for years has followed a “quantitative easing” strategy to prime the economic pump, may be  forced to bump up interest rates to staunch inflation. That in turn could bode ill for many sectors, including the housing market.

We didn't start the fire
It was always burning, since the world's been turning
We didn't start the fire
No, we didn't light it, but we tried to fight it...
....Joel William M (aka Billy Joel)

            Although there’s little doubt among anyone in Bend, the statistics back up that summer of 2021 is a scorcher for the archives.
            A look a daily weather temperatures for June and July this year compared with 2020 and 2019 shows how dramatic temperatues have risen year over year.
            There were 24 days out of 31 with highs of 90 degrees or greater in July this year, compared with 12 in that range in 2020 and only seven in 2019.
            July was no slacker in the heat index, but June of this year was especially notable. There were 15 of  30 days above 90 degrees, compared with only two in 2020 and just a single day in June of 2019. Of June days above 90, there were five reading more than 100, including a record 111 on June 29.
            August of 2021 is also showing its muscle on the heat index, with eight of the first 12 days above 90, two of those topping 100. Through the same period of August 2020, only five days were 90 or more, and none of 100 or more.
            The first 12 days of August 2019 was hotter than 2021 with seven days above 90, although none reached 100.
            Escalating summer heat is unpleasant, but the accompanying consequence of more frequent and catastrophic wildfires is making summers in Bend and much of the West more an excercise of enduring smoke-filled and dangerous air quality.
            This summer Bend had remained mostly smoke free, although wildfires to the northwest near Sisters, on the Warm Springs reservation north of Madras, south around LaPine burned in July—along with the mammoth Bootleg fire northeast of Klamath Falls all burned.

Air quality map August 13, 2021

            But as August began. smoke from various blazes, including Calfornia’s largest Dixie Fire in the northern Sierras, joined other pollution emerging with new fires from Roseberg north along the Cascades to create numerous days of unhealthy air.
            Checking the thermometer each morning is now even secondary to a look at the Air Quality Index to see if we’ve dropped back from very unhealthy to just unhealthy, with hopes that we’ll see the moderate yellow graphic shade some time.
            Coupled with the intense heat, smoke has rendered nearly empty at times the normally busy offleash dog parks and the city’s outdoor soccer and pickleball courts.          
            Then came resumption of statewide indoor mask mandates prompted by surging Covid cases and hospitalizations straining the region’s healthcare provider. This has forced restaurants and retail businesses back in a position of last winter and spring when the virus especially hammered the lodging and food service sectors.

Bend AQI: 251 August 14, 2021

 

           The noxious smoky air has impeded restaurants from maximizing outdoor dining, putting owners back into a position of having to police indoor visits from Covid and mask weary customers.
            Anyone walking along town streets was as likely to see more people masked to avoid the hazardous wildfire-fueled smoke as to stave off the relentless virus.
            Besides the temperature data for this summer, all along the west coast the wildfire and smoke hazards have extended to the Rockes and beyond, with reports of pollution carried thousands of miles to cities of the nation’s Northeastern metropolitan corridor.
            One of the most dramatic examples of fires around the globe is available in an online world view showing the west coast of the United States and raging wildfires in the taiga of Siberia, with its vegetation that once served as a buffer to capture ozone-depleting carbon.
           

Global hotspots: US West coast and Siberia

Fire in the normally colder, Siberian boreal forest is in one sense beneficial, releasing heat-induced cone seeds in a natural cycle to replenish the landscape. But instead of approximately 50-year major fire events, the cycle is now recurring almost yearly. The same phenomenon is being replicated in Alaska’s boreal landscape.
            Scientists also say the more frequent fires potentially unleash what is known as “legacy carbon,” from a thick layor of organic material that burns less frequently. And warming Siberian temperatues have caused erosion in the area’s permafrost regions with similar effect.
            Any time there’s a debate about climate change, the dialogue often devolves into whether statistics verifying a overheating planet are indicative of typical rotating“weather” patterns or a larger trend of “global warming.”
            As with much in the United States these days, the preponderance of scientific evidence often comes up against a political wall built on a foundation of disinformation, questionable statistics and cries of don’t take my “freedum,”  fitting a narrative often designed to defend fossil fuels or some elusive and fading thread of a patriotically perfect American history.
            The dialectic could be comparable to the eschewing of science that supports masks and vaccines as weapons against the deadly coronavirus – transferred to a resistance to recognize and support measures that might help solve the pandemic and climate challenges.
            “No, we didn’t light it, but we tried to fight it,” as Billy Joel wrote.
            True, we may not have started the metaphorical looming disasters of the song.      
            Nevertheless we – government, science, industry and individuals – now own them. And by proximity and circumstance we now have an obligation to continue fighting for solutions.